Germany has not emerged unscathed from the regional elections held in Brandenburg last Sunday and in Thuringia and Saxony at the beginning of September. The electoral cycle leaves a weakened chancellor, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, and a country that has shifted to the right.
Scholz’s SPD victory in Brandenburg will give him breathing room for the coming months, but it does not guarantee that his unpopular coalition with environmentalists and liberals will be able to see out the remaining year of his term. The rise of anti-immigration parties on the left and right has accelerated the competition among moderates to tighten the screws on undocumented immigrants.
In the three federal states of the former GDR that just voted, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won around a third of the votes and has established itself as a central force. The new party of Sahra Wagenknecht, a dissident of the post-communist left and also in favour of restrictive measures towards foreigners, will be decisive in forming a government in Thuringia and Brandenburg.
Following several Islamist attacks that have sparked unrest in parts of society, the coalition led by Social Democrats Scholz has tightened border controls, while the Christian Democratic opposition is demanding that it go further. Immigration has become the focus of debate in Germany.
Scholz faces autumn with a stagnant economy and a crisis-ridden industry. Also just around the corner is a budget debate that threatens to break up the so-called traffic light coalition. And growing impatience over German aid to Ukraine in the war unleashed by Russia is reflected in the electoral successes of the AfD and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).
If the general elections were held today, the conservative CDU/CSU would win with 31 percent, according to a recent poll by the Forsa institute. The far-right AfD would come in second with 17 percent and Scholz’s SPD in third with 15 percent. The CDU/CSU has agreed to nominate veteran Friedrich Merz as its candidate, a representative of the right-wing party that rejects the more moderate policies of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
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“People are disappointed with the traffic light coalition, especially in the east,” says Uwe Jun, a political scientist at the University of Trier. “They feel that they have not worked together well, that communication is erratic and that they have not been able to solve problems that concern people about immigration or Germany’s economic future. And that is why they have decided to vote more for protest parties like AfD and BSW.”
The three states that voted this month have a combined population of around 8.5 million inhabitants, or 10% of Germany’s total population. They are not representative of the whole country. It is risky to extrapolate.
“The eastern part of Germany has always been more open to new parties like the AfD or the BSW, because there are fewer ties to the established parties,” explains political scientist Jun. “They are more dissatisfied with the political and economic situation. Some have the impression that they are second-class citizens and that the western part dominates politics and that they cannot match the level of West Germany in matters like pensions or wages. And they hold politicians responsible.”
“Since reunification [en 1990]has always voted differently regarding West Germany,” says Joseph de Weck, a columnist in the German magazine International Politics and specialist at the French think tank Institut Montaigne. “These results,” he warns in reference to the recent regional elections, “will not be reproduced on a national scale.”
These were very difficult elections. orientals.And yet the impact is felt across the country.
“The fact that Scholz is so likely to lose his re-election shows that Germany is in a new phase of instability for the country,” says De Weck. “The instability is political, with the AfD gaining ground and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which did not exist until a few months ago, now making its mark on the political landscape. The political system was stable and new parties needed a long time to establish themselves. Now we see how a party can establish itself overnight.” The expert points to another factor: growing social discontent. “Until a few years ago, Germans thought: ‘Everything is going well, we are the leader in Europe, we are the engine of growth,’” he says. “Now they feel a bit like the ship is sinking,” he adds.
If, as polls predicted, the far right had won in Brandenburg, the dissolution of the traffic light coalition could now be on the agenda, or at least Scholz would not stand for re-election in the legislative elections in September 2025. For now, he remains a candidate, although names such as Defence Minister Boris Pistorius are being floated as a replacement.
In Brandenburg, the Social Democrats won with 30.9% of the vote, thus holding on to a stronghold they have governed since 1990. The AfD came second with 29.3%, followed by Wagenknecht’s party with 13.5%. To govern, the Social Democrats will need Wagenknecht, a necessary ally for the Christian Democrats if they want to govern in Thuringia and prevent the far right, which came first in votes in the elections on 1 September in this country, from coming to power. land.
The cordon sanitaire applies to AfD but not to Wagenknecht. The former is a party of the radical right, the latter of the left. Both have a connection with a section of the population that feels closer to Russia. The pressure on Scholz to reduce his support will grow. For the moment, the success of these parties has helped to put immigration at the top of the agenda.
“Rational political parties know that they lose elections if they don’t use strong words on immigration – and this can be seen from the AfD to parts of the SPD, from the liberals to Wagenknecht’s party,” observes Wolfgang Merkel, a political scientist at the Centre for Social Science Research in Berlin. “The only major party that has not followed this move to the right on immigration is the Greens. And they are paying for it.”
In Brandenburg, Scholz saved face, but no one credits him with the victory, but rather Dietmar Woidke, the president of Brandenburg and SPD candidate. Woidke campaigned by distancing himself from Scholz and the coalition, and it worked for him.
The coalition is on the decline. In Brandenburg and the other two states that held elections, the results of the other government partners have been disastrous.
The FDP is the weakest link. It has not gained more than 1.1% in any of the three elections and its leader, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, promises an “autumn of decisions.” In other words, if Scholz and the Greens do not give in on issues such as the budget or immigration, they threaten to break up the coalition and trigger an early election in which the conservatives are the favourites.
“The SPD hid Scholz during the campaign, so his victory is a victory against the chancellor,” the tabloid sums up. Bildzeitung. And he concludes, pointing to Scholz and his allies: “Anyone who really wants to take the will of the voters seriously must change their policy, or simply let it go.”
