The Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz presented himself before the Bundestag this Wednesday as the guarantor of the unity and social cohesion of Germans at a time of growing polarization and strength of populist forces. His main rival in the early elections on February 23, the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, has responded by accusing him of being the one who divides Germany.
After the government coalition broke up and Scholz was left in a parliamentary minority, the first clash of an atypical campaign in every sense was staged in the federal Parliament. Atypical because the elections were brought forward half a year, something that usually happens approximately every two decades in this country – the last time was in 2005 and the social democrat Gerhard Schröder lost and was succeeded by the Christian democrat Angela Merkel, who would govern for 16 years. The campaign is also atypical due to the context, with Germany in recession and the world awaiting Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Merz is the favorite, according to all the polls, although he will need to govern in coalition with one or more parties to secure a parliamentary majority. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is aiming for its best result since the founding of the Federal Republic. The chancellor, with the polls against him and criticized even from his own ranks, runs the risk of suffering a setback and seeing a questioned legacy definitively tarnished.
“In February, citizens will decide if our country remains cohesive or if we divide and confront each other,” said Scholz, who alluded to the United States and the reelection of Donald Trump as an example of social polarization that he says want to avoid in Germany. Merz responded, boosted by his lead in the polls and whom many see as the next chancellor: “You divide the country, Mr. Federal Chancellor.”
By unexpectedly dismissing his Finance Minister, the liberal Christian Lidner, and two other ministers from this small party last week, Scholz precipitated the end of the coalition that had governed Germany since 2021. His mandate was due to end in the autumn of 2025. It will do it half a year earlier.
Without the yellows (liberals), from the so-called traffic light coalition there are now only the reds (social democrats) and the greens. The breakdown of the tripartite, the result of ego fights, but above all of fundamental differences in economic policy, has activated a new electoral calendar. The chancellor plans to submit to a vote of confidence on December 16 and lose it. It is the constitutional means available to dissolve the Bundestag and elect a new one on the agreed date, February 23.
Tone is everything in politics, and this Wednesday Scholz chose a completely different one from the one he used on Wednesday of last week to justify the dismissal of his minister Lindner, calling him “selfish” and accusing him of “betraying” his trust. The hit on the table, the enoughshocked some in a chancellor who always speaks in a low voice and usually avoids rhetorical flourishes and confrontation.
Before the Bundestag, aware that he was facing an uphill campaign, the chancellor tried to adopt the trappings of his position, beyond the partisan struggle, and occupy a center that could escape him in this election. The bad news continues for him: the polls that place him at around 15%, behind the extreme right; There are local leaders of his party who express doubts that he is the best candidate and are nominating the Minister of Defense, the popular Boris Pistorius; and this same Wednesday, the report of the so-called committee of economic wise men that advises the Government placed the growth expectation at 0.4% (the Executive expected 1.1% after the GDP has fallen slightly in 2023 and 2024) .
“I will never make citizens choose between investing in our security, or in good jobs and economy and infrastructure,” he said, thinking about the right that assures that there is not money for everything, and the populist left that maintains that support Ukraine loses money for social policies. “Either we give money to the federal Army or we have secure pensions. We either support Ukraine or invest in Germany. This either this or that It is wrong and leads the country in the wrong direction.” The path, he added, “of populism and the extreme right.”
Scholz defended “compromise” and “cooperation” in the face of “polarization.” He tried to convince the Christian Democrats to now, before the accelerated end of the legislature, help him approve social democratic laws – on pensions or to promote growth, among others – which, despite being in the minority, would allow him to score some legislative victory before the elections. Or, if the opposition refuses, he could accuse it of lack of cooperation in the face of the economic crisis.
“What you have presented here, Mr. Chancellor, is from another world,” replied his rival Merz. “Do not act as if now, in the final phase of your Government, you can still do something.”
The Christian Democrat leader sees himself as chancellor, but he also sees that in the next Parliament the presence of the extreme right will be greater and also the pressure to get closer to it. Looking at the AfD bench, he warned: “Neither before, nor after, nor at any other time will there be collaboration between my parliamentary group and your people. I don’t care how many there are in the next Bundestag. There will be no collaboration.”
One thing is certain, after what was heard this Wednesday in the chamber: the extreme right may be stronger than ever since the end of World War II, but it will remain far from power.
