Best Stocks for Samvat 2081 : The new Samvat 2081 will start with Muhurta trading on 1st November, the day of Diwali. Brokerage house Axis Securities says that Samvat 2081 is going to prove to be an important year for the global economy. We are starting this new season amidst the global rate cut cycle. The US Fed has cut interest rates by 50 bps during its September 24 FOMC meeting and has hinted at 2 more rate cuts in 2024 itself. Besides, the possibility of rate cut 4 times in 2025 has also been expressed. RBI also, in its recent MPC meeting, made its stance neutral, indicating that a rate cut can be expected within the next 6-9 months.
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Positive outlook for rural consumption
The brokerage says that for Samvat 2081, we expect one to two rate cuts from RBI depending on the inflation trend and broader growth dynamic. Due to improvement in agricultural activities and positive outlook for rural consumption, RBI has maintained the GDP growth rate estimate for FY 2025 at 7.2 percent. Additionally, rainfall during the monsoon season (June-Sep’24) was 4% above the long period average (LPA), and water reservoir levels across the country are higher than last year. The rural economy is expected to benefit from these favorable conditions. The chances of a strong Rabi crop this year will increase.
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Focus will be on these factors in Samvat 2081
1) Elections in America
2) Economic reforms in China
3) Activity during festive season
4) US bond yield movement
5) Crude price trend
6) Fund Flow
These factors are expected to cause volatility in Indian equity markets, which may react in either direction depending on these events. In the near term, considering the latest developments, some capital allocation may shift towards China. However, the brokerage house says that we have confidence in the long-term growth story of the Indian equity market. However, there is limited scope for further expansion at current valuations. Growth in corporate earnings will be the primary driver of market returns going forward.
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Theme for Samvat 2081
• Companies with high growth potential at reasonable valuations
• Companies with leadership positions in their sector
• Companies with a strong track record of improving return ratios
• Right mix of rate cut cycle, defensive, capex, consumption and export oriented themes
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Gravita India
Target price: Rs 3000
Return Estimate: 38%
Arvind Smart Spaces
Target price: Rs 1085
Return Estimate: 37%
Inox Wind
Target price: Rs 270
Return Estimate: 31%
KPIT Technologies
Target price: Rs 2150
Return Estimate: 27%
HG Infra
Target price: Rs 1700
Return Estimate: 27%
AU Small Bank
Target price: Rs 800
Return Estimate: 25%
Lupine
Target price: Rs 2600
Return Estimate: 22%
Indian Hotels
Target price: Rs 800
Return Estimate: 22%
UNO Minda
Target price: Rs 1900
Return Estimate: 18%
(Disclaimer: The advice to invest in stocks has been given by the brokerage house. These are not the personal views of Financial Express. There are risks in the market, so take expert opinion before investing.)