WorldRussia Ukraine War : What if the Russia-Ukraine war spreads to any...

Russia Ukraine War : What if the Russia-Ukraine war spreads to any NATO country? Only one bullet can start a fierce war


Kyiv/Moscow : The possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO forces has increased as Russian troops move closer to the Ukraine-NATO border. On March 13, a Russian plane allegedly fired rockets at the Yavoryev International Peace and Security Center. This center is just 20 kilometers from the border of Ukraine and NATO country Poland. Mistakes happen in all military organizations, this became more apparent in recent times, when an Indian missile accidentally landed in Pakistan after being launched. There is a situation of high tension between the nuclear-armed India and Pakistan right now.

There was a lot of scope for revenge by Pakistan, but unlike Ukraine, there was no open war between the two countries. If the same incident had happened between the Polish and Russian forces in Ukraine, it is unlikely that the Polish government would have convinced the missile launch was a mistake. Concerns about Russia’s intentions are at a higher level in NATO’s eastern countries than in the West.
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War can start with just one bullet
On March 15, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic risked a train ride into Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. The potential for confrontation increases when assessing each other’s troops on the ground. A mere firing on a calm and tense border or aggressive action by a junior non-commissioned officer mistaking a particular situation can lead to a fierce battle. Such fighting goes beyond the control of local commanders.

Ukraine may have to give NATO aircraft expensive
Zelensky repeatedly called on NATO to declare Ukraine a ‘prohibited aviation zone’. But NATO leaders have concluded that this threatens a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. This appears to apply to Zelensky’s other requests as well, including a demand to supply aircraft to aid the Ukrainian Air Force. But if NATO provides aircraft directly to Ukraine, Russia could take action to stop the supply of planes.

This can include attacks on airports where aircraft are kept. For example Poland before sending the plane to Ukraine. In his speech to the US Congress, Zelensky reminded America of the attacks of Pearl Harbor and 9/11. He warned of the consequences of NATO’s continued inaction.

What is Article Five?
NATO membership allows a member nation to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to seek support from other members of the alliance. This article was used by the US for the first and last time in NATO history after the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington DC. But Article Five does not guarantee that all other NATO states will send armed forces to deter an attack, with only military action being an option that can be incorporated as part of the coalition’s principle of ‘collective defence’.
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NATO meeting was held in Brussels after the attack
UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said during an interview on LBC a few days ago that, ‘If even a single Russian enters NATO territory, there will be war with NATO.’ On February 25, the day after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, the heads of the NATO government met in Brussels. He condemned the invasion of Ukraine and committed to helping Ukraine. NATO then deployed both land and maritime resources to its eastern regions.

Some NATO countries do not want to get involved with Russia
NATO began to prepare itself by activating defense plans so that the alliance’s territory could be protected by responding to any contingency. The research by Kenton White, a lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations at the University of Reading on NATO, includes informal discussions with several officials from various member states. According to this, some NATO countries may be reluctant to send their troops, even if Article 5 is used.

Russia will respond to NATO with nuclear and chemical weapons
The question is whether leaders of NATO countries would be willing to strike on Russian soil, which is crucial for the conflict. But if this happens, additional risks will increase and Russia could respond by deploying nuclear or chemical weapons. Conventional or nuclear deterrence – both situations require a rational assessment by both sides. So far NATO has not been successful in stopping Putin.

In contrast, Putin has threatened to inform the coalition of results never seen before in history. Meanwhile, if Russia gets any exemption in peace talks, then the possibility of more demands from its side increases. This concerns Eastern European members of NATO. It is not yet clear whether NATO member states located far away from Russia feel the same threat.

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