Two weeks after Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, activity is accelerating on the open fronts in the war in Ukraine. 10,000 kilometers from Washington, the Russian and Ukrainian armies are trying to take over as much enemy territory as possible in the face of a hypotheticalnegotiation to end the conflict that began the large-scale invasion of Russia almost three years ago, as the US president-elect promised during the campaign. The latest troop movements show that there is a rush: in the Russian region of Kursk, Ukraine continues with the counteroffensive launched this Sunday, after an autumn resisting Russian attempts to expel them. And progress is also being made on the fronts in Ukrainian territory, mainly in the province of Donetsk, where this Monday the Russian Ministry of Defense declared the total occupation of the city of Kurájove, besieged from the north, south and east for three months.
The information about Kurájove has not been confirmed or denied by Ukraine, which only mentions in the daily report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces having “stopped 27 attacks” in the direction of this municipality and having suffered another 13 towards Vremivka, another town a few steps away. kilometers southwest. However, the benchmark analysis group DeepState, which monitors the evolution of the conflict using open sources, shows most of Kurákhov under Russian control.
It also confirms Russian advances “in the midst of continuous offensive operations” the think tank American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its daily report, citing the analysis of geolocated images that also reveal that Russian forces are approaching Dachne and Petropavlivka, two towns west of the city taken . “Images published on January 5 show elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade raising a flag in the center of Petropavlivka, indicating that Russian forces likely recently took the settlement,” the post says. At noon this Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of Dachne.
The Russian Defense Ministry has described Kurákhov in a statement as a “powerful fortified area” by the Ukrainian army “with a developed network of firing points and underground communications.” He also claims that the Ukrainian army has lost 80% of its personnel, more than 12,000 soldiers, during the more than 80 days of fighting around Kurákhov, although this information has not been independently verified.
Russia is advancing gradually, but without interruptions since last summer, without the Ukrainian army being able to prevent it. Cities like Vugledar and Selidove have fallen in recent months, and Moscow’s troops are increasingly approaching Pokrovsk, a town 32 kilometers from Kurájove that is key in the defense of the Donbas region and that has also been under threat for months. from falling into Russian hands. However, the military analyst and director of the think tank New Geopolitical Research Network, Mijailo Samus, downplays this movement and believes that the taking of Pokrovsk will not be so easy. “Many journalists have been saying for months that Pokrovsk is going to fall and it has not happened. They have been trying for half a year, without success,” he emphasizes.
The battle for Kurájove began on October 16, 2024, although since last summer Russian forces have already regrouped to the north, south and east of the city, trying to surround the Ukrainian troops. Three months ago, almost empty of population, it was a ghost city, as Morning Express was able to see during a visit with several brigades operating in the area. Then, the soldiers involved in the defense of the city complained about the lack of reinforcements to face the enemy attacks. “Probably, we will soon see that Kurájove follows the same fate” as other besieged towns, warned Eugene Churbanov, deputy battalion intelligence commander of the 46th Airborne Brigade, present there.
Important logistics center
The importance of Kurákhov, which before the war had more than 22,000 inhabitants, lies in the fact that with its conquest Russia ensures control of the south of the province of Donetsk, of which it already has 66% of its surface, according to the ISW , and will be able to reduce the intensity of Ukrainian artillery bombardment towards territory occupied by the invading army. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, “establishing control over this important logistics center significantly complicates the logistical and technical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depriving the kyiv regime of the opportunity to fire artillery systems against the civilian population of the city of Donetsk.
Kurákhov was an important node of the Ukrainian defense that allowed control of key communications that can now be used by the Russian army to develop its offensive. Furthermore, the capture of the city can favor two relevant military operations: the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Velikaya Novoselka area and the opening of the road to the aforementioned Pokrovsk. From an economic point of view, Kurákhov, which has a power plant, is one of the last mining centers that Russia did not yet control in Donetsk.
For Samus, the capture of Kurájove does not change the situation substantially at the operational level. “Russia wants to occupy cities and loses many soldiers and tanks to achieve it, but the only thing behind it is Putin’s crazy strategy, who wants to take as much territory as possible in Ukraine to have something to negotiate with Trump,” he maintains.
While Ukraine defends itself in Donetsk and other fronts, in the Russian region of Kursk it went on the offensive this Sunday after months of resisting Russian attempts to expel them. This Monday, pro-Russian war bloggers, who have military knowledge and even direct access to the troops and the battle front, highlighted that intense fighting is taking place for the second consecutive day. “Ukrainian troops are advancing in the Berdin area, with the aim of reaching the road leading to Bolshoye Soldatskoye and from there, through the Sudzha ring road junction, to the road to Kurchatov,” describes WarGonzo.
In his daily nightly message this Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assured that Russian troops have suffered heavy casualties in the five months that this front has been open. “During the operation in Kursk, the enemy has lost more than 38,000 soldiers in that direction alone, of which almost 15,000 have been irreversible losses,” he stated.
Negotiating tool
Last October, Zelensky emphasized the strategic benefits of the Kursk operation, describing it as a tool to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating power. “Kursk is the main problem for Putin. “You can’t sell Trump that you are winning the war because you have Ukrainian troops carrying out operations in Russian territory,” says Samus.
More recently, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has spoken out, who this Monday at a press conference in Seoul declared that the control of the Ukrainian army of a part of the Kursk region “is important, because it is undoubtedly an element to take into account in any negotiations that may take place next year,” in reference to the beginning of Trump’s presidency.
In a three-hour interview with the computer scientist and podcaster American Lex Fridman broadcast Sunday, Zelensky said he remains hopeful that Trump will offer security guarantees to Ukraine and play a decisive role in forcing Moscow to end the war.
According to a Ukrainian military source cited by the newspaper Kyiv PostUkraine continues to control 800 square kilometers in Kursk, of the 1,100 they occupied in the lightning raid launched on August 6. The military news website Militarnyi, However, it is estimated that half of the initially occupied territory has been lost.
