This Friday, the Russian army opened a new war front in Ukraine, north of Kharkiv. The second largest Ukrainian city, in the east of the country, has suffered daily bombings this year from the other side of the border, just 25 kilometers away, but is now once again threatened by a ground offensive. Russian troops have crossed the border between both countries and have reached four villages, according to data from Deep State Map, a reference analysis group on the evolution of the conflict. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have warned since the beginning of this month about the concentration of enemy troops for an imminent attack, although they have ventured that the units are still not enough to assault a large urban concentration like Kharkiv.
The provincial governor, Oleg Sinegubov, confirmed this Friday that fighting is taking place on the border, but has denied that Ukraine “has lost a single meter.” Sinegubov has specified that Russian artillery is particularly punishing the border town of Vovchansk, a Ukrainian stronghold in the area. The Ministry of Defense has indicated that the first wave of the offensive began at five in the morning and that it could be contained. The ministry’s statement underlines that the region, especially Vovchansk, is being hit hard by Russian aviation bombs. With Ukrainian air defenses at minimum levels, aerial bombs have been key in the Russian advance in recent months in Donetsk. The proof that this offensive has begun, according to basic military theory and precedents in this war, is the intensity of Russian artillery and aviation operations on the Ukrainian defensive positions, to weaken them before the subsequent advance of the infantry. mechanized.
After months of rumors and unverified information, on May 3 the first public warning came at the highest level about the threat looming over Kharkiv. It was from the commander of the Army, Oleksandr Pavliuk: “Our intelligence services tell us that Russia has a plan to take Kharkov or Sumi [ambas ciudades en el noreste de Ucrania, limítrofes con Rusia]but we do not know if these plans are solid and if they have enough strength to carry them out.”
Moscow has created a new military structure in this region. To launch an offensive in Kharkiv, it has about 30,000 soldiers in the border province of Belgorod, according to the Ukrainian media. N.V. and the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Petro Chernik, colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, estimated on May 8 in the Ukrainian newspaper Espresso that Russia would need at least 100,000 men to consider reaching the city of Kharkiv. The Intelligence Services of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) estimate that, in total, Russia has 100,000 soldiers in its provinces in northern Ukraine. The invading army has nearly half a million soldiers stationed in Ukraine.
The ISW concluded on May 5, as Ukrainian military representatives have done, that the most palpable result of opening a new combat zone over Kharkiv or Sumi is that it would force Kiev to transfer resources to this region that are now on “other fronts.” of war”. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense added in its statement that its Armed Forces have been forced to send reinforcements to Kharkiv. “They [los rusos] “They can increase their troops in this direction,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “but our military, our command, knew about this and has calculated the fire that our forces need to confront the enemy.” “A fierce battle is now taking place in this area,” the president announced.
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Ukraine urgently needs weapons from its NATO allies and troops to relieve tens of thousands of casualties or soldiers exhausted after more than two years of service. On May 18, the new civilian mobilization law comes into force, which should provide the army with nearly 400,000 new recruits. Recent moves to enlist civilians include a plan to recruit up to 20,000 people in prison. These prisoners must volunteer, not be convicted of blood or sexual crimes, and must have less than three years of imprisonment left.
Gray zone
Military sources from the Kharkiv command consulted by Morning Express add that another Russian objective is to create “a gray zone” that protects the Belgorod area from new ground assaults and reduces Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks on this Russian province. The gray zone is, in a conflict situation, one that neither side fully controls. Deep State Map, which draws on military information on the ground, indicates that the Russians managed to establish a gray zone 15 kilometers long and four kilometers wide this Friday.
Different armed groups opposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin have carried out incursions in Belgorod and the province of Kursk, from Sumi and Kharkov, which have put Moscow’s control in its border regions in check. The last operation occurred last March, coinciding with the Russian presidential elections. Belgorod and its capital are also a constant target of Ukrainian attacks against military infrastructure, but also civilian infrastructure, such as the electrical grid. Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Belgorod, said last Monday that a Ukrainian drone killed six civilians traveling on a bus in this province.
Kharkiv has been a priority target of Russian bombing this spring. Electricity production in the province has remained at a minimum and dozens of civilians have died. Russian propaganda has been warning for weeks that its inhabitants should abandon the city in the face of an imminent siege, but until now the population has remained stable at 1.2 million people, according to data from the City Council, many of them citizens who have fled from other regions where fighting is taking place.
Kharkiv was already the target of the Russian invasion in March and April 2022, but Kremlin forces failed in their attempt to occupy it. The Ukrainian army managed to free the province from the Russian military presence in the lightning counteroffensive in September 2022. The invader currently occupies a small part in the east of the Kharkiv region, from which it has been threatening to take the strategic city of Kupiansk, an elevated municipality and a decisive railway junction to protect the province and attempt, in the future, a Ukrainian military advance on Lugansk, illegally annexed by Russia in 2022.
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