Sheet The GuardianYesterday (January 7), citing an announcement from Russia, Ukraine launched a new attack in the Kursk area in western Russia.
Ukrainian troops in the area near the Russian border in 2024
The role of the war in Kursk
Kursk is where Russian troops have been trying to push back Ukrainian forces for the past five months. On January 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces defeated the Ukrainian side. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers reported intense fighting and Moscow was under heavy pressure. The Ukrainian General Staff said 42 skirmishes took place on January 5 in the Kursk area, and 12 were still ongoing. In August 2024, Ukraine conducted a cross-border raid on the Kursk region and Russian troops have since retaken only about 40% of the lost territory.
Reply AdolescentYesterday (January 7), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster assessed: “Perhaps, before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, President Zelensky hopes to regain the important tactical area. lost to Russia last summer. Mr. Zelensky wants to strengthen his negotiating position before Mr. Trump proposes any ceasefire and peace negotiations initiatives for the Ukraine conflict.”
In less than 2 months, the conflict in Ukraine has continuously escalated. At the end of November 2024, after receiving permission from the US to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russian territory, Kyiv launched many ATACMS missiles aimed at Russia. But then, Moscow responded by launching an Oreshnik hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to attack Ukraine. That was the first time Russia used hypersonic IRBMs to attack Ukraine since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, Russia also launched a strong attack against Ukraine.
In incoming analysis AdolescentAt that time, experts from Eurasia Group (USA), the world’s leading political risk research and consulting unit, compared what was happening in the Ukraine conflict to the efforts of two football teams at the last minute. end of the match. “The whistle of the match will sound soon after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office),” experts from Eurasia Group (USA) analyzed.
In fact, Mr. Trump is holding meaningful “cards” to pressure both Kyiv and Moscow to force the two sides to sit at the negotiating table. So both sides want to gain more advantage on the battlefield right before sitting at the negotiating table. This is the motivation for Mr. Zelensky to be ready to play “all in” before “the final whistle blows”.
Match position correlation
Analyzing the war in Ukraine, expert Schuster assessed: “All signs show that Ukraine is targeting Russia’s strong points with heavy artillery and precision weapons attacks. Most likely, Ukraine will also target locations where North Korean soldiers are believed to be present. In fact, the current North Korean military force has no combat experience and is unlikely to be able to survive in artillery attacks. This force will also be more susceptible to instability by attacks I believe that Ukraine will achieve some initial success but must avoid going beyond the range of operations, so Ukraine occupies the main terrain, does not advance further and prepares to go on the defensive maneuver against the Russian counterattack will take place in February.”
However, expert Schuster also raised the problem: “President Zelensky could repeat the mistake in 2023 and try to continue the attack beyond those initial achievements. That would make the Ukrainian army suffer.” excessive casualties possible”. The mistake the expert mentioned was that Ukraine in 2023 organized a strong counterattack against Russia, but was unsuccessful and even suffered heavy losses due to spreading its forces too widely, while Moscow had the upper hand in terms of resources. heavy artillery and rockets.
Former Colonel Schuster further analyzed: “The rains starting in March will limit military activities, so the timing of this counterattack is almost perfect. Russia only has 3-5 weeks to redeploy forces aimed at stopping the advance of Ukrainian troops and regaining lost territory.”
