The “unprecedented” levels of destruction and death after just over half a year of war in Gaza indicate that this territory, its economy and its inhabitants will take decades to recover, according to a report from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) presented this Thursday. While several leaders from different countries try to agree on a ceasefire that would allow a glimpse of a possible end to the conflict, the statistics continue to plummet. The most alarming fact is the increase in poverty, which has doubled in less than seven months, reaching 58.4% of the population. The increase in unemployment, hunger and lower life expectancy will continue to worsen in the Strip as long as the armed conflict lasts and the trend will not stop with the end of hostilities, according to the UN predictions.
This will also affect, although to a lesser extent, the rest of the Palestinian territories under Israeli occupation, that is, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the report adds. “The unprecedented levels of human loss, the destruction of capital and the sharp increase in poverty in such a short period of time will precipitate a serious development crisis that will endanger the future of coming generations,” warns Achim Steiner, administrator of this UN agency in a press release.
The poverty rate among Palestinians has doubled from 26.7% of the population before the war to 58.4% today and is expected to be 60.7% in July if the fighting is not over. There are already 1.74 million more poor people than before October 7, when Hamas opened the conflict by murdering some 1,200 people. Meanwhile, the decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) would reach 29% with total losses of 7.6 billion dollars (about 7.1 billion euros). The Human Development Index (HDI), the measure of population well-being used by the UNDP, may register a decline in Palestine of more than 20 years.
“The effects will be felt for years. Food insecurity, losses in education, insufficient health services, inadequate hygiene and sanitation, forced displacement and poor housing conditions have already set back human development that may take two decades to reach pre-war levels. war,” concludes the UNDP study. In Gaza, a territory with 2.3 million inhabitants before the start of the war, 5% increases the data on deaths (more than 34,500) or injuries (more than 77,000). “In addition to the thousands of lives that have been lost and the many more maimed and injured, the risk for future ‘lost generations’ is real,” the study warns.
Some 370,000 homes have been damaged in the Strip, of which 79,000 have been completely destroyed since the fighting began on October 7 due to attacks by Israeli occupation troops. The report calculates that, in an optimistic scenario and assuming that the input of construction materials increases fivefold, those 79,000 will not be rebuilt before the year 2040. That, without counting the rest that will have to be repaired.
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Until the end of January alone, there was direct damage to buildings and infrastructure in the Palestinian Mediterranean enclave worth about 18.5 billion dollars (about 17.28 billion euros), that is equivalent to 97% percent of Palestine’s total GDP in 2022. The majority of the damages are concentrated in residential buildings (72%), in commerce, industry and the service sector (9%) and the remaining 19% is distributed between education, water systems, sanitation and hygiene, health, energy, information and communication technologies, municipal services and transportation.
The experience of previous conflicts indicates that the average rate of reconstruction of completely destroyed homes in Gaza is 992 housing units each year, that is the average after the military operations of the Israeli army in 2014 and 2021.
Target of direct attacks, only a quarter of the hospitals function partially while more than a hundred ambulances have been damaged or destroyed and up to 722 health workers have died. A hundred educational centers (schools and universities) have been destroyed and more than 300 damaged, while the number of employees in this sector who have lost their lives rises to 246.
Triggered strike
The unemployment rate in Palestine, which was 25.7% before October 7, has reached 46.1% after six months of war and is expected to reach 47.8% in the ninth month. Israel has revoked the work permits of 180,000 Palestinians who earned a living on Israeli territory or in the Jewish settlements that occupy the West Bank. Only 8,000 have been provisionally activated during the current conflict. Gaza, the main scene of the conflict, was already suffering from 45% unemployment, which rose to more than 62% among young people. Of the 507,000 jobs that had been lost in Palestine until January 31, 201,000 correspond to the Strip, where unemployment reaches 57%.
The north of that territory is the hardest hit. There, 55% of households have experienced severe food insecurity from mid-February to mid-March. If the war does not stop, this figure will grow by 15 percentage points until July, the UNDP study details. “The devastating war will leave future generations with heavy economic and social burdens, which will impede recovery and development throughout the occupied Palestinian territory after the war,” the report warns.
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