“The first party to retire its octogenarian leader will be the one to win this election” in the United States, predicted then Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley in January. Seven months later, Democrats, elated after the appointment of Kamala Harris as their candidate allowed them to turn around their downward spiral, believe that this statement will prove prophetic. Republicans, who only three weeks ago saw themselves in the White House, are keeping their fingers crossed that the former governor will not end up being right.
Since Joe Biden handed the Democratic nomination to Harris on July 21, the electoral race has been completely transformed. With an excited voter base, a new and diverse leader — the first black and Indian woman to be a presidential candidate for a party —, money in the coffers and polls in their favour, the Democrats are campaigning with a new slogan: “Joy.” Donald Trump’s supporters are appealing to their own with a tense message, in which they warn that “the world has gone to shit in these last couple of weeks.”
Harris’s push seems to have caught Trump off guard, as he had based his campaign on fighting Biden, whom he successfully defined as too “weak, failed and dishonest” to continue in government. Now, in his electoral events – few, compared to his first campaign in 2016 – he has opted for personal insults as a strategy against the vice president, whom he calls “unintelligent”, “radical” and accuses of changing her racial identity as it suits her. “I am in the lead by a lot,” he boasted at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on Thursday.
For now, the data contradicts this. A survey by Siena College published The New York Times This Saturday, Harris leads by four percentage points in three key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the territory essential to the Democratic victory strategy. In all three, the former California attorney general has a voting intention of 50%, compared to Trump’s 46%. The survey also finds that the vice president, very unpopular just a month ago, now enjoys a better image than her rival: voters perceive her as more intelligent, more honest and with a better temperament to govern. The Republican, on the other hand, has a clearer vision for the country.
Other polls have yielded similar results: the aggregate of political polling analyst Nate Silver places the Democrat with 46.3% of voting intention, above Trump’s 43.9%. The specialized blog FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a two percentage point advantage, 45.6% compared to her opponent’s 43.5%.
“For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and excited, while Republicans are nervous. Unforced errors by Trump and his vice presidential nominee, JD Vance, have shifted the media focus from Biden’s age to Trump’s flaws. In other words, the presidential campaign has transformed from one in which Trump had the upper hand to one that is far more competitive,” writes Amy Walter, director of the political analysis firm The Cook Political Reportin a report this week.
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Both sides claim to be the winners. At her rallies, the vice president admits that they are not “the favorites,” but she says: “We know who we are up against.” The Republicans believe that their rivals’ rise in power is only temporary and will fade once Harris has to detail her government plans and answer questions about her administration’s performance over the past four years.
The battle for key states
Tied in a country almost equally divided between the two parties, the battle between the two parties is being fought in a handful of states yet to be decided: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin (the so-called “blue belt”, territories in the North that usually vote Democratic) and Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which form the “sun belt”.
On their side, Democrats have the renewed enthusiasm of their base. 87%, according to the Timesis excited about his candidate. Harris’s camp says that more than 200,000 volunteers have joined the campaign. Her rallies – rare and with a low capacity during the Biden era – now fill halls with 15,000 people, numbers that the Democratic Party has not seen since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008: it is no coincidence that the vice president has incorporated several veterans of that campaign into her team, or that her slogans of “joy” and “when we fight, we win” evoke the “hope” and “yes, we can” of the first black president.
Democrats have one key strength: their finances. In July, and especially after the change of leadership, their campaign raised more than $310 million, twice as much as their Republican opponents. This week, in the first 24 hours after the announcement of the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as their vice-presidential candidate, they received more than $36 million in their coffers.
The vice president also believes that her choice of number two will help maintain momentum in the polls. Harris has favored the governor, above all, because of his image as a genuine middle-class person, an endearing professor who speaks simply and without mincing words. She believes that image will attract more centrist voters in the “blue belt.” And that the progressive measures that Minnesota has implemented during the governor’s term will convince the more left-wing groups within the party,
The Republicans, for their part, have an advantage in the campaign: the electoral system itself in the US presidential elections. This does not apply the direct vote – in which the Democrats usually have a majority – but the candidate who wins at least 270 votes in the Electoral College wins, where each state has a certain number of votes based on its population. This means that the Republicans need 3% less than the Democrats to win.
Republicans also have the advantage of an established candidate who excites his base and who, with his message that America is in decline, connects with a portion of the electorate that feels alienated from the system and hurt by Biden-era inflation. “Stocks are CRASHING! Unemployment is RISING! Wars in the Middle East are spiraling OUT OF CONTROL!” reads a typical fundraising email from his campaign, sent this week.
In the polls, Trump leads his rival in opinions on who would better handle the economy: in the one published this Saturday The New York Timesreceives 53% to Harris’s 44%. Voters also trust him more on another of the big issues of this election, the management of the immigration system and the border: in the same poll he receives the trust of 51% compared to his rival’s 46%.
Trump’s number two, Ohio Senator JD Vance, appears less established. His campaign debut in July was marred by the viralization of some of his past comments. Most notably, some statements in 2021 in which he considered the United States to be governed by “childless women and cat lovers” like Harris. In the poll for the 2021 presidential election, Trump’s number two, Ohio Senator JD Vance, appears less established. The New York Times In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, a third of respondents say they are dissatisfied with Vance’s selection. Seventeen percent say they are “angry” about his appointment.
There are less than three months to go until the date at the polls on November 5. In a campaign as eventful as this year’s, both parties can still turn the tables. Perhaps even several times. There are key moments to be had along the way: first, the Democratic convention in Chicago starting on August 19, with which Harris’s party hopes to continue its momentum among the electorate. On September 10, what could be a decisive episode will take place: the first televised debate between the vice president and Trump.
Whether Haley was right in her predictions will become clear in November. Who wins will depend on which campaign is best at connecting with voters: the Democrats with their message of optimism or the Republicans with their message of discontent. “Things look much better for the Democrats than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump seems stronger now than he did in 2020. Anyone can win,” Walter concludes.
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