NATO finalizes its strategy for the Sahel, North Africa and the Middle East. Within this new roadmap, the military organization is considering opening training and advisory missions in some of its partners in those regions, an unprecedented step. In a scenario of great instability throughout the southern neighborhood and with the destabilizing presence of Russia and the push of China in North Africa and the Sahel, the Atlantic Alliance, which is perceived in most of those countries as an organization that moves by double standards and only pursues the interests of the northern states, studies increasing political and diplomatic dialogue, promoting a new narrative to counter these messages and other collaboration formulas, such as advisory missions inspired by the one that works in Iraq , according to allied sources familiar with the discussion, and that they would be deployed at the request of the partners. At the moment, Jordan and Mauritania are “receptive” to the idea, say diplomatic sources.
After decades of focusing almost entirely on Russia, which is considered the “most direct and significant” threat to its allies, something that became very clear when the Kremlin launched war against Ukraine two years ago, NATO is now also looking to the southern flank, a somewhat indefinite broad geographical, strategic and military concept, covering North Africa, the Sahel and the Middle East. And it does so at a very turbulent time, with a war, that of Israel in Gaza, that threatens to spread to the region, and with most of the Sahel shaken by jihadist groups, under the control of military junta – which also have links with Russia and its mercenaries—and from where the European Union and the United States finalize the departure of their last military missions (Mali, already greatly reduced in the case of the EU, and Niger and Chad, in that of the Americans) while Moscow advances positions.
Western military assistance missions in the Sahel, where they have provided military assistance in combating jihadist and insurgent groups, have had very questionable results and the Kremlin has been occupying that space from Syria to the Sahel, taking advantage of the tensions, errors and a “growing anti-European sentiment,” expert Paul Stronski points out in an analysis of the region for the Carnegie Institute. The competition is increasing. Also from China, which wants to extend its influence to promote its agenda and which is increasing its presence throughout the region; also at sea and port control.
NATO believes that its security is closely linked to that of the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel, where enormous economic, political and demographic challenges prevail; further fueled by the climate crisis and food insecurity, indicate Alliance sources involved in the debate on the new strategy. Instability causes displacement of vulnerable populations and migratory pressures that cross the area.
To address these challenges, NATO is looking for “new approaches,” says an allied source. He believes that contributing to the stability of partners in the region will also contribute to their security. To support this new strategy, the Alliance has commissioned a report from a group of 11 relevant independent experts, who have recommended to the military organization, among other things, the creation of these training missions, education, good practices and military reform programs. defense sector, inspired by the Iraq mission —established in 2018 and now led by a Spanish general—, according to the document, which Morning Express has seen. This mission works with military and civilians in their training programs and advises Iraq’s institutions on policies, strategy, force generation and development, resource management, peace and security.
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The Alliance studies the report of a group of wise men
The Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, and the heads of the 32 allies – with the latest addition, Sweden – are now studying the report of the group of wise men with varied profiles, such as the Professor of Political Studies Ana Santos Pinto, from Portugal, who presides over it; the Danish Military Studies researcher Katja Lindskov Jacobsen; the Italian general Alessio Nardi; the Turkish ambassador Refik Ali Onaner, or the former Spanish MEP and ambassador on special mission Carlos Carnero. The document, still confidential, also proposes appointing a special NATO envoy for the southern neighborhood, establishing political representation in the African Union to complement the military liaison office that already exists, and promoting cooperation in maritime security – against piracy. , for example—with partners in those regions. In addition, it recommends exploring the creation of a center to deal with manipulation and interference and another climate and security center in North Africa, where there could be exchanges of experts.
And in the midst of the debate on how to advance diplomatic dialogue in the Middle East, experts recommend that NATO also support its commitment to the two states—Israel and Palestine—and support peace efforts to implement that solution, and that long-term invite the Palestinian Authority to participate as an observer in the activities of the Mediterranean Dialogue, the cooperation forum between the Alliance and seven Mediterranean countries.
The Atlantic Alliance has been postponing the debate on its strategy on the southern flank for a long time, amid the disinterest of some of its partners who look only towards Russia and, at most, towards China. Others have been trying for years to get attention paid to the area, such as Italy, Portugal or Spain, which has been part of the Atlantic Alliance since 1982, and for which the area of North Africa and the Sahel is strategic, where it has a good relationship. on security matters with Mauritania—with whom the EU has now signed an economic agreement in exchange for curbing immigration to Europe. At the Madrid summit, in 2022, it was not achieved: the Russian threat and its large-scale war against Ukraine overshadowed everything. Nor in last year, in Vilnius (Lithuania). However, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, have put a lot of pressure in recent meetings to carry out a new strategy that the leaders of the 32 allies plan to approve at the crucial summit in Washington. in July.
The expansion of the Kremlin’s tentacles in the southern neighborhood and Russian influence has given a boost to the idea of carrying out the strategy. Also, the turbulence in the Middle East, although allied sources recognize that this can also push back some allies and slow down the process. The scenario is clear, NATO has never been an organization appreciated on the southern flank, but in addition, now, the Kremlin has extended its influence in Africa, where it has increased its arms sales agreements and investments in essential raw materials, hydrocarbons and precious minerals and where he has placed his mercenaries – now with the various successor brands of the Wagner company, such as Africa Corps, which depends directly on the Kremlin – to protect like-minded leaders and Russian interests in the region. Russian paramilitaries are in several African countries, but are particularly active in the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan and Libya. Also, lately, in Burkina Faso and Niger. Now, Russia is pulling its strings to also position itself in Chad.
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