NATO is turning 75 and is preparing to blow out its candles in a way it could not have imagined just over a week ago. The celebrations of the summit in Washington between July 9 and 11, to commemorate the signing of the treaty in 1949 by which 12 governments promised mutual aid in the event of external aggression, threaten to be overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding the political future of US President Joe Biden, host of the meeting, and the prospects of a victory for Republican Donald Trump in the US elections in November.
This is not the way the Alliance had hoped to celebrate its birthday. Its idea was – is – to celebrate its excellent health after three quarters of a century: it has more partners than ever, 32 countries, and others knocking on its door. Up to 23 of them, 14 more than five years ago, meet the defense spending targets of 2% of GDP. The Washington summit will be the first in which its most recent partner, Sweden, participates as a full member. And the meeting has important issues on the table: how to help Ukraine, build bridges towards the entry of the invaded country into the Alliance – although there are no plans to offer it membership until the war is over – its mission of “deterring and defending,” and the rise of the Chinese colossus. As has happened in previous editions, the four like-minded governments in Asia Pacific are invited: Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
But the controversy surrounding Biden, and whether the veteran president, six years older than the long-standing Alliance, is fit to continue as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the November elections, not only shows no signs of abating, but is becoming increasingly intense. At a time of change in the governments of the member countries (a rising right in Europe, a France where Le Penism is increasing, and on the other side of the political spectrum the debut of the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer as the new British Prime Minister), all eyes will be fixed on the American during the summit, the first meeting of international leaders since the White House tenant’s catastrophic performance against Trump in the electoral debate on June 27.
During the gala dinner at the Mellon Auditorium to commemorate the founding of the Alliance, the working sessions, a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a meeting with countries friendly to kyiv and — above all — a final press conference, the world will be waiting to see if the Democrat can keep up with the pace of events, if he makes any stumbles or makes a mistake when speaking.
A senior US government official denied that the meeting’s activities had been tailored to demonstrate the US leader’s resilience. “The schedule has been planned in advance for a long time, and it’s quite typical of a NATO summit,” he said in a telephone conversation with journalists. “Foreign leaders have seen Joe Biden up close over the last three years, they know who they’re dealing with and they know how effective he’s been.”
The summit, which will culminate in a joint declaration, will focus largely on the war in Ukraine, “the most urgent priority,” according to the outgoing Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg.
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It is not in the script, as was the case at the summit in Vilnius a year ago, to offer Kiev to become the 33rd member of the Alliance, despite Zelensky’s calls. Although there is insistence on the “irreversibility” of its path to accession, and the reforms that are being asked for it to do so, there is no appetite among the partners to open the door for Ukraine to invoke Article 5 of the Washington treaty – the obligation of mutual defence in the event of external attack – and test its compliance.
But the transatlantic meeting will focus on responding to the country’s needs for the war, on what kyiv has asked for and on the capacity of the allies to send material through the three delivery nodes in Slovakia, Romania and Poland. There will also be components of training, preparation and training, something that seeks to ensure, among other things, the interoperability of Ukrainian forces with allies, and military governance, according to sources from the Alliance. The United States “will announce new steps to strengthen air defenses and military capabilities to help Ukraine continue to defend itself today and deter Russia from future aggression,” said the senior White House official.
kyiv, Stoltenberg said after the last meeting of the Alliance’s defence ministers before the summit, needs long-term predictability about the assistance in the form of weapons, ammunition or funds that it will receive. The aim, stressed the outgoing secretary general – who will be replaced by the Dutchman Mark Rutte in October – is “to minimise the risks of delays and gaps (in supplies) that were seen at the beginning of this year”. These delays, he pointed out, “are one of the reasons why the Russians were able to launch and occupy more territory in Ukraine”.
The idea is to strengthen coordination and security assistance, partly by taking advantage of NATO’s command structure and using funds from the common budget: 40 billion dollars (about 37 billion euros) are planned for this year. Spain already committed itself in May during a visit by Zelensky to Madrid to supply weapons worth 1.1 billion euros.
A NATO-Ukraine Council meeting will be held on Thursday, after which Biden will host an event with more than 20 NATO member countries and other friendly governments that have signed bilateral security agreements with kyiv.
“I think we will see at the summit that these agreements basically become an agreement between a number of NATO countries that make clear their long-term support for Ukraine and their determination to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” said Max Bergmann, director for Europe at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), during a telephone conversation with journalists.
Shielding yourself from Trump
But NATO will also have to determine its future for the coming decades. And it will want, as far as possible, to protect itself against a possible boycott, or the apathy, of its main partner in the event of a Republican victory in the US elections in November. The candidate of that party, Donald Trump, flirted during his presidency with leaving the transatlantic organisation, and has threatened to not respect Article 5 if one of the nine countries that still fail to meet the common objective of a defence expenditure of 2% of their GDP is attacked. The remaining 23, as Stoltenberg announced in Washington, have reached this goal that Trump insisted on so much during his mandate.
The Alliance “is ready to fight tonight, in a way it has never been before. Over the past two years (since the Madrid summit) there has been a tremendous amount of work to improve its deterrence and defense capabilities, and its readiness for war,” said Sean Monaghan, also of CSIS and lead author of the report. Is NATO ready for war? “But what it is perhaps not ready for is a prolonged war. NATO still has a lot to do in that regard,” he said.
The report, among other things, notes that the organisation has “improved the quality and coordination of its defences”. NATO’s response force can mobilise 300,000 soldiers in 30 days, seven times more than two years ago. In 180 days, that number increases by half a million more. The military industry has taken steps to improve its capacity for collaboration between members and to speed up its production. This year it has allocated 500 million euros to improve the production of ammunition, one of the major shortcomings that the war in Ukraine has revealed.
But it is plagued by problems such as outdated systems, and shortcomings in its naval forces and air defence systems. “Defence spending, the development of industry, key capabilities and societal resilience need further work to be ready for a prolonged conflict,” Monaghan said at an event to present his report. These investments would not, he said, seek to fight Russia, but to ensure that the Alliance is strong enough to deter future attacks after the war in Ukraine.
The third pillar of the agenda at the Washington meeting, which will also address issues such as the Plan for the Southern Neighbourhood (the Maghreb and the Sahel), will be the increasingly intense relations between NATO and related countries in the Asia Pacific to counter the rise of China and the relationship between the Asian giant and Russia, amid accusations by Washington and Brussels that Beijing’s dual-use exports to its neighbour allow Moscow to maintain its offensive in Ukraine. The Alliance’s four major partners in the region – South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand – will participate in the meeting, as in previous editions.
“Security concerns in the Indo-Pacific are very similar to those faced on NATO soil, and so it makes sense to share lessons and work together against similar collective threats. Japan and South Korea, in particular, have been excellent partners in responding to the threat posed by Russia. We look forward to an opportunity to share views on these issues, but also to deepen the habit of cooperation and practical areas of collaboration between NATO and our partners in the region,” said Assistant Secretary of State for Europe James O’Brien at a meeting with reporters last week.
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