Donald Trump achieved an overwhelming victory in the November 5 elections with the promise of a massive deportation of migrants as his banner. The popular support he obtained is maintained after his immediate actions confirm that his plans will not remain theory and that he will carry out one of the toughest immigration policies in recent decades. This has been revealed by two recent polls, in which the majority of respondents support the expulsion from the country of the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants who are estimated to reside in the United States. The survey published on Sunday by CBS and carried out by YouGov shows that 57% of the population supports what would be the largest deportation in history, compared to 43% who disapprove. In another poll, conducted by Ipsos and Scripps News after the elections, 52% of respondents are in favor of deportation. The percentage is higher among Republicans, of whom 85% confirm their support for the expulsion of migrants.
This latest survey, carried out on 1,031 citizens between November 15 and 17 with a margin of error of 3.3 points, highlights that although the majority of the population wants deportations, their support falls when the consequences are weighed. If the expulsion policy means the separation of families, support drops 14 points and only 38% would support it. Although a majority of Republicans (68%) remain in favor of the policy, only four in ten independents and about one in ten Democrats would agree. This is not a remote possibility, considering the history of deportations that the president-elect collected in his previous term and in which dramatic separations of parents from their children were routine.
The likelihood of history repeating itself has been reinforced by Trump’s picks to lead immigration policy. Tom Homan, who will take over as “border czar,” was director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Under that title he became one of the architects of the “zero tolerance” policy, through which thousands of migrants were deported without taking into account whether this implied the separation of families, which triggered situations of children separated from their parents. In recent statements, Homan has responded that to avoid similar situations, he will deport entire families.
Other hawk defender of a policy that has been described as inhumane by human rights organizations is Stephen Miller, also present in Trump’s first presidency, who will occupy the position of deputy chief of staff of the White House, a role from which he will supervise the policies of immigration.
Already before the elections, polls revealed a shift to the right on immigration matters among the American population. An example of this is the Annual Survey of American Values, conducted in August by Brookings and the Public Research Institute on Religion, which for the first time since 2018 showed a drop in support for migrants who arrived undocumented as children, the so-called dreamers. A slim majority of Americans (52%) favored allowing them to obtain legal resident status, up from 62% six years ago. The dreamers They are also in the crosshairs of Trump, who already tried to end the program that protects them from deportation, DACA, in his previous term.
When it affects the pocket
Economists have warned of the negative effects that a mass deportation would have on the country’s economy. The 11 million undocumented immigrants are people who work, consume, pay taxes… and their expulsion would affect the rest of the population. With this in mind, support for deportations is no longer as high. According to the Ypsos survey, support for deportations would fall to 48% if it affects the coffers of Social Security and Medicare. According to the American Immigration Council, undocumented workers contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare, programs for which they are not eligible. His expulsion would put the finances of public services in problems and that is where deportations lose followers.
Just as if you take into account that their departure from the labor market would leave many jobs unfilled, especially those that American citizens do not want. The most affected sectors would be hospitality, agriculture and personal care services. In that case, the support of those surveyed falls to 47%. Support for deportations is also reduced to 43% if this means an increase in inflation, something that economists have already warned about.
The CBS survey, conducted among 2,232 citizens between November 19 and 22 with a margin of error of 2.3 points, also shows differences when the details of what the deportations would be are given. Although Trump has not provided many clues as to how it will be carried out, the fact that the Republican has stated that the Army will participate in the operation is not so pleasing and 60% of those surveyed believe that the military should not be part.
Support for the Republican’s plans, however, is also reflected in the fact that 73% of those surveyed believe that deportations should be a high or medium priority for the incoming Administration and only 27% think that it is an issue secondary.
