Political tension has not decreased one bit in Moldova. After the close victory of the referendum on October 20 in favor of accession to the European Union – 50.46% of the vote, by only a difference of about 10,500 ballots – and the insufficient victory achieved by the pro-Western and current candidate president, Maia Sandu, in the first round of the presidential elections held that same day, the electoral race has become an intense clash between two dilemmas: joining the community bloc or returning to the past as a kleptocratic state manipulated by Russia from the outside.
The recent revelations by the police about the operation and scope of voter corruption networks, presumably financed by Russia, have uprooted the optimism of the supporters of the pro-European candidate, who will face Alexandru this Sunday in the second round. Stoianoglo, an independent candidate supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party and who has obtained the support of Ilan Shor, as reported by Sandu herself. Shor is a Moldovan oligarch who first fled to Israel, his country of birth, and then to Russia, after being sentenced to 15 years in prison for the theft in 2014 of 1 billion dollars (about 922 million euros) from the system. Moldovan banking, 8% of the GDP of this Eastern European country of 2.6 million inhabitants. Proof of the change in tone is found in the new tactics of the head of state’s electoral campaign, which replacedthe initial slogan “For Moldova” with a more alarmist one, “Save Moldova”.
Although Sandu, a former advisor to the World Bank, is the favorite, the latest public survey gives her a weak advantage over her opponent with 50.95% of the votes compared to 49.05%, without counting those of the diaspora and Transnistria, the separatist region that survives thanks to the support of the Kremlin. If both were added, the candidate’s options would increase to 55.2%. However, the result of the last electoral battle seems unpredictable, despite the fact that the head of state obtained 42.45% of the vote and her opponent, 25.98%. The reason is the undecided, which is estimated at almost 25%.
Additionally, according to authorities, the Shor organization mobilized more than 130,000 people to influence the last vote, using funds through Promsvyazbank, an internationally sanctioned Russian bank. Prosecutors, who estimate that the number of those involved could exceed 300,000 at the end of the investigation, announced that they identified that some 36 million euros circulated through the network thanks to the fact that the financial entity operates in Transnistria. Police intensified their efforts to combat “Shor’s network” before the second round, making new searches and arrests almost daily.
“We must all unite, regardless of political ideology, to protect democracy and free elections,” Sandu declared this Friday, hours before the campaign closed,in allusion to the massive purchase of votes and winking at the supporters of other political formations that also wish to continue with the European path. The president, who affirmed that her country had taken a historic step after the Constitutional Court validated on Thursday the result of the plebiscite where the population supported the inclusion in the Constitution of the desire to join the European Union, urged her opponent to “ publicly condemn the illegality of the criminal group Shor”, a request that was not reciprocated.
The electorate penalizes Sandu for having neglected internal affairs to focus on foreign policy, believing that external consolidation, with the capture of hundreds of millions of euros from Western partners, would bring greater resilience to the country. But, internally, he could not gather more forces around his political ideas or convince all citizens of the benefits of belonging to the EU. Serious mistakes were also made, especially in the field of defense and security, where Shor’s Russian money passed through the filters of a police and special services in full reform, but also through a judicial system made up of prosecutors and judges. corrupt people who hoped to maintain the status quo somehow. Still, the current president represents Moldova’s main bastion of credibility with the EU and the United States.
The alleged pro-European approach of Stoianoglo, whose political career is limited to six years as a deputy of the Democratic Party then led by Vladimir Plahotniuc – another escaped oligarch – is based on his direct participation in obtaining the visa-free regime with the EU and the Agreement of Association, both in 2014, preliminary steps to achieve the current status of candidate to enter the community bloc. But, on this occasion, the former attorney general has also refused to support the plebiscite to include European integration in the Constitution, alleging that it was a strategy by Maia Sandu to perpetuate himself in power. It should be noted that Stoianoglo enjoys Romanian citizenship, which allows him to access the community labor market, travel freely and obtain social assistance, as he himself has pointed out, and also one of his daughters currently works at the European Central Bank.In addition, he has assured that he would have no problem meeting with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. “I will be an apolitical, impartial, balanced president and a faithful servant of the Constitution; “My goal is the security, peace and well-being of Moldova, not politics,” he proclaimed at the closing of the campaign. On the other hand, the leader of his political party, former Moldovan president Igor Dodon, indicated that if Stoianoglo manages to win the elections, another plebiscite will be organized to eliminate EU integration from the constitutional text.
Denis Cenusa, expert of the think tank Romanian Expert-Grup, points out that Stoianoglo has received the explicit support of nine candidates and that may change the balance. Therefore, Sandu’s hope is to capture the largest possible percentage of the nearly 215,000 voters that the third in votes, Renato Usatii, gathered, and to achieve a considerable increase in votes from outside. “The decisive factor will be found between the protest vote and the geopolitical vote,” he warns. “Sandu’s speech has been based on accusations against Stoianoglo that he represents Russia’s Trojan horse intended to persuade undecided voters to reorient their votes. She appeals to the narrative that her rival’s victory will lead to the isolation of Moldova by the EU. But these statements have been rejected by his adversary, who is in favor of European integration, although emphasizing the national interest,” he says.
Cenusa emphasizes that the result will depend on the extent of Russian interference and the ability of Sandu to mobilize the diaspora – some 169,000 voted for her in the first round – and of Stoiangolo to become the symbol of the protest vote. And, in addition, it predicts three scenarios. The first is for Sandu to win thanks to a strong mobilization of the hundreds of thousands of voters residing abroad and the recruitment of others in the country; the second, that his rival achieve victory through the protest vote by ensuring that he will not endanger the path to the community club; the third, the annulment of the elections due to fraud. “If the president’s entourage perceives her defeat as a result of Russian interference, the elections could be canceled and repeated, invoking a state of emergency for reasons of national security, which could provoke protests by Stoianoglo supporters,” Cenusa points out. .
For Armand Gosu, a specialist in the former Soviet space, the EU considers Moldova as the last stronghold that resists Russia. “Bringing a pro-Russian president to power and building a pro-Kremlin government after the parliamentary elections in June next year are very important objectives for Moscow, which wants to use Moldova as a launching pad for attacks against Ukraine,” he says. In that case, he warns, kyiv would be forced to militarily occupy Transnistria in order to disarm Russian forces and use the ammunition it can remove from the Cobasna warehouses, where supposedly 20,000 tons of Soviet weapons still remain. “Even if a pro-European government remains in power in Chisinau, the separatist region must be a priority to guarantee the security of the Black Sea region,” he says.
