For more than two years now, Moldovan authorities have been watching with great concern the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the military incursion of Kiev troops into the Russian region of Kursk has raised the alarm in this small former Soviet republic, considered one of the most vulnerable European countries to Russian expansionism. The seizure by the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the city of Sudzha, where the gas facility that guarantees most of Moldova’s electricity and the last operational pipeline transporting gas to Europe through Ukraine is located, has led the government in Chisinau to declare a state of early alert in the gas market.
On Thursday, members of the Moldovan Commission for Exceptional Situations considered that the declaration of an energy alert would give the responsible institutions “the necessary tools to closely monitor its evolution and intervene quickly in case of extreme need,” the government said in a statement.
The decision to initiate the procedure was made at the suggestion of the natural gas transportation system operator Vestmoldtransgaz after receiving a notification from its Ukrainian counterpart about the hydrocarbon pumping station located in Sudzha, a town of about 5,000 inhabitants, about 60 kilometers from the Kursk nuclear power plant and less than a kilometer from the Ukrainian border, where intense fighting is taking place and tens of thousands of people have already been evacuated.
Despite the potential risk of a supply cut, Moldovan Energy Minister Victor Parlicov has eased tensions by saying that there is no imminent risk of gas being cut off, although he admitted that his ministry would need time to manage the situation if supplies were to be cut off. “There are factors that are beyond our control and that we cannot control in the areas where military operations are taking place. That is why we must be prepared for any scenario,” Parlicov said.
Russian gas extracted from the Russian town of Sudzha crosses Ukraine to the Cuciurgan power plant (MGRES), a Russian-controlled power station located in Transnistria, the separatist region in Moldovan territory with a pro-Russian majority that declared its independence. de facto In 1990, Moldova’s authorities have repeatedly stated that the Eastern European country is no longer dependent on gas supplies from the giant Gazprom, but it is indirectly dependent on the Russian company for the electricity produced by this plant located on the banks of the Dniester River. Chisinau has not yet found a way to replace its supply from a safer and cheaper source.
The only precedent for declaring an energy alert dates back to October 2022, when the state-owned consortium Gazprom reduced the volume of gas delivered to Moldova by around 30%. At that time, the Chisinau authorities took measures such as reducing the time of public lighting and recommending that the population rationalize electricity consumption.
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The authorities in Tiraspol, the capital of the rebel enclave of Transnistria, announced that large companies in the region would receive less gas, including the power plant in Cuciurgan. Chisinau was forced to turn to the European market (that of Romania) to buy electricity. But its high cost, up to three times higher than the Russian one, has substantially increased its dependence on the Transnistrian power plant.
Very reduced price
In spring 2023, Minister Parlicov stated that Moldova cannot terminate the gas supply contract with Gazprom, as it is used to supply energy in Transnistria at a much reduced price compared to the European market.
Last year, more than 14 billion cubic meters of gas were transported through the Sudzha station, according to local media data, which is equivalent to almost half of all Russian gas exports to Europe, which were significantly reduced after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This Russian flow is mainly destined for EU countries considered close to Moscow, such as Hungary. In July, more than 180 million cubic meters from the Russian Federation entered Moldova from Ukraine.
If the supply via the Sudzha station were to be cut off, Transnistria would be left without natural gas and Chisinau without electricity.
“If this transit were to be interrupted, the MGRES plant would stop working and we would have to import energy from Romania, but the most affected region would be the Transnistria region. Or Gazprom would have to urgently redirect gas supplies to the south, via Turkstream. [por el mar Negro]“If there is still room in the pipelines, either Transnistria would ask for our help to avoid a humanitarian crisis and we would have to start the reintegration process,” says energy expert Sergio Tofilat, who points out that “the costs would be quite high.” “In that case, we would need outside help to manage it,” he adds.
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