Ten years ago, the Israeli army’s rearguard command – in charge of giving instructions to the civilian population in the event of war or natural disaster, following the missiles that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein launched against the country in the Gulf War – agreed to create a system to send alerts to mobile phones in an area, without the need to have an application downloaded or have coverage, as in other countries. This Sunday, at last, it was activated in test mode, with the country at maximum tension due to the retaliation, announced by Iran and its allies, for the double murder last week: of the number two of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in his fiefdom of Beirut and of the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, in the heart of Tehran. Israel only recognizes the first; but very few doubt its authorship of the second.
The system, which will not replace the app that Israelis (especially in areas near Gaza, Lebanon or Syria) use to receive warnings of incoming rockets and drones, is one of the preparations for the “single-issue” (along with the national Olympic medal table) that the Israeli street and media have turned into the retaliation.Kulanu mejakim” (We are all waiting) is one of the most common Hebrew phrases heard since the weekend, while anger at the lack of information is spreading in WhatsApp groups, conversations and open microphones on the radio. The army has kept its instructions to the population intact and calls for calm: it will immediately notify them as soon as they change.
On Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the response would be “severe and at the appropriate time, place and manner.” On Monday, amid race-to-the-clock efforts to prevent what seems inevitable, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said he wants “stability” in the region, not open war, but that “this will only come by punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the Zionist regime’s adventurism,” referring to Israel.
The intelligence services of Israel and the United States believe that the attack will be imminent, although Tehran can play right on the social and economic impact of uncertainty and prolong the wait. In the Jewish State, the assumption has been established that it will be in the next 48 hours and, therefore, Michal and Raymonde, coworkers who live in Modiin, a city between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, chat just a few dozen meters from their hotel, in the famous German Colony in the city of Haifa, 40 kilometers from Lebanon. They have come on a trip that their company organized some time ago and they have decided to continue. “My son called me an hour ago. He said: ‘Mom, be careful tonight, don’t go too far from the hotel…’ There is a lot to see in Haifa, but look at us here at two… we don’t dare to go far from the hotel,” says Raymonde.
The worst thing for Mijal is not having solid ground. At home in Modiin, she says, she has a box in the so-called “safe room” with a transistor, a flashlight and five-litre containers of mineral water. “Here, if something happens, I wouldn’t even know where to go or how to react,” she laments.
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Many airlines have cancelled their routes to Tel Aviv and Beirut, including Iberia and Air Europa. They believe that it will last a few days and that allies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and friendly militias in Iraq and Syria will also participate. They also believe that it will focus on military bases and strategic points in the north, although Tel Aviv will not be ruled out, due to the symbolic balance of deterrence, following the attacks in Tehran and Beirut. Washington has reinforced its military presence in the region and has asked that there be no “doubts” about its role on the Israeli side in the event of an attack.
The country’s third largest city, Haifa, has everything to bite its nails on, although its inhabitants seem more resigned than nervous. Not only because of its proximity to Lebanon, having been a target in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah and having appeared in the speeches of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, but also because it is home to the country’s most important port. Last June, Hezbollah made a splash by releasing images of the strategic location. They were captured by one of its drones, which managed to cross and return, without being shot down. A clear message: just as we can send a drone to film, we can send another one with explosives. The mayor, Yona Yahav, admitted last month that he expected the population (about 280,000 people) to remain “at least four days at a time” in bomb shelters and parking lots.
The proximity of the port, which defines the city’s personality, to the Asian food restaurant where he goes to pick up the bags he delivers is one of the things that most worries Mustafa, 26 years old. Between deliveries, he checks his mobile phone for the app from the rearguard. He admits that he continues working because he needs the money, but he is “restless” and has been “waiting for the news” for days. “There are many targets here. We are all waiting for the answer. Look at the street. There is no one. This city, so alive, is dead. It is the most difficult, weakest moment. [de clientes] since October 2023, when the war began and an increasing exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah from which Haifa has remained almost on the sidelines.
Others, like Ismail Ushari, are more relaxed. “I am a bit afraid for my nephews, who are out on the street. I am 53 years old, I have already lived a lot.” He then points to a crane at the port, just a few hundred metres away, and insists: “It is very close, but I think that if they attack, they will only attack military bases. They will not even want to blow up the port. Do you know why? Because if they do, they will blow up the Beirut port immediately.”
The city council has installed remote-controlled doors in the 110 public shelters, where the Palestinian minority (around 15% of the city’s population) feels discriminated against, distributed across neighbourhoods. It did so shortly after 8 October 2023, when Hezbollah launched its first rocket at Israel, following the spillover effect of Hamas’ massive attack and Israel’s first airstrikes in Gaza. Rambam, the area’s main hospital, has converted part of the underground car park into an emergency unit where it can deploy more than 2,000 beds within 72 hours.
A document that the army has sent to mayors in the north of the country speaks of the possibility of three days of power cuts in some localities, water supply failures, mobile network outages for up to 24 hours and landline outages for up to eight hours.
Water shortage in supermarkets
That is why supermarket shelves for 1.5-litre bottles of water are empty. The more forward-thinking people snapped them up days ago, along with flashlights, electric batteries and canned food. Or in April, when another Iranian announcement of retaliation – this time for the murder of seven members of the Revolutionary Guard in an Iranian consular building in Damascus – led many to stock up, just in case. What happened was more symbolic for the history books of the Middle East (the first attack by Iran from its territory on Israel since its creation in 1948, with some 300 missiles and drones) than dangerous, since it had warned of the attack and practically broadcast it. Israel and its allies the United States, the United Kingdom, Jordan and France intercepted 99% of the projectiles.
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