There are politicians who can do a thousand somersaults, walk a tightrope and even jump off the cliff: they always land on their feet. Emmanuel Macron has not exactly landed on his feet after this month in which he, and France, lived dangerously. He comes out bruised. His party has lost a hundred deputies. He will no longer occupy the central place he occupied in French politics alone. But he has saved a bet that almost everyone, including many of his own, believed was lost.
The far right, although strengthened, is defeated. The centre, its centre, has not collapsed. And it will be decisive for a possible grand coalition government. Macron can once again be at the centre of the game, even if in a different role. This time, as referee and mediator between the sensitivities that exist, from the social democratic left to the moderate right.
By dissolving the National Assembly on June 9, without even consulting his Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, Macron has plunged France into the unknown. Marine Le Pen’s far right has just won the European elections by a landslide and humiliated the Macronist candidate. If this result were repeated in the early legislative elections, the extremists would have a strong chance of seizing power. And all this on the eve of the Olympic Games, with the eyes of the world fixed on France. “If on July 26, 2024, the day of the opening of the Olympic Games, the ceremony takes place with a government of the National Rally,” said historian Patrick Boucheron just a few days ago, “it will be seen all over the world and people will remember it for ever and ever.”
It was considered, and written, that Macron had “played Russian roulette”. That his decision was “suicidal”. The act of a “narcissist” who placed not only France, but also the European Union, on the brink of collapse. Macron defended his decision with two arguments. The first was that, after the defeat in the European elections, he could not continue as before and had to ask the French who they wanted to govern them. A photo of the country. The second argument was that, since the 2022 legislative elections, polarisation had taken over the National Assembly, in addition to the fact that the lack of a majority made it difficult to govern calmly.
Alongside these public arguments, others were circulating in Paris. The dissolution of the National Assembly and the calling of early elections were going to happen in the autumn anyway, as the opposition as a whole was preparing a motion of censure. Macron’s idea, according to this theory, was: better to rush the elections than to be forced to call them. And another theory: better to rush the arrival of the RN to the government himself, something he thought could happen sooner or later, than to wait for Le Pen to come to power, not to the government, but to the presidency of the Republic in 2027. Moreover, if he had come to power and with a novice prime minister like Le Pen’s successor Jordan Bardella, Macron could demonstrate the incompetence of this party… and avoid, as Barack Obama did when Donald Trump came to the White House in 2017, being forced to hand over the keys to the Elysée to his nemesis, Le Pen.
Few understood Macron’s decision, least of all the Macronists. His MPs launched campaigns in hiding their image. Heavyweights in his party, such as the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, or his former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, staged their break with their leader in public.
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Tonight, Macron may feel partly vindicated. He wanted clarification, and rarely have the French voted as hard as they did on Sunday and said so precisely what they wanted. And now, when he seemed threatened with lame-duck irrelevance, Macron is resurrected. He will no longer hoard so much power and will have to share it. It is the end of Macronism as we have known it – the omnipotent president, the Jupiter who decides everything, the Napoleon – but a new Macron has probably been born tonight. He has not landed on his feet, but he survives.
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