One day we will know the specific reasons why the French president called these legislative elections early. For any observer, it is very likely that it was due to a mixture of pride, of which he has plenty, and tactical thinking. From the first data we have on the result, the only thing certain is that he has introduced France into a situation close to political deadlock. Moreover, there is no possibility of it being resolved over the course of an endless year until new elections can legally be called again. Along the way, and this will become more clear in the second round, he will have succeeded in tearing his country apart by a dangerous polarisation between the extreme right and the left. Two-round elections have the advantage of facilitating access to majority governments, but their other effect is that they divide the country in two, something that until now had been avoided by the solidity of Macron’s own party. If even the first is not achieved, as is more than likely, he will have made a mess of things.
Now, the 10% that the polls predict to the right of Los Republicanos may be the decisive factor for next Sunday’s second round confrontation. What will be your second option, will you lean towards Le Pen’s dangerous National Alliance (RN) or will you add the candidates of the Ensemble Macronist? It is difficult to guess, because it depends a lot on what the options are within each of the districts. The problem for the president is that in many of them, the non-triangular ones (where three pass), the second round election will be presented between candidates from the two blocks with the most votes in the first of them, the RN or the New Popular Front of the left (NFP). The most likely result is that in this case they will lean towards that of the extreme right, whose great victory has consisted precisely in the fact that the previous cordon sanitaire no longer applies to a large part of the population that previously abhorred it. The final choice will depend on the relative strength of those who continue to maintain it. If this has completely faded, it could even end in a victory for the RN. And much will also depend on the instructions given by the different parties before the second round, especially in the triangular districts, which have grown with the spectacular increase in participation. The left is clear about it, but not the rest.
From behind the relative veil of ignorance that access to information that is still provisional, my first hypothesis would therefore be that of the blockade, although the victory of the RN cannot be excluded, as I say. However, the biggest unknown is how Macron will manage to govern with either of the two options. Or, and this is even more morbid, was this result among his plans? If so, are you planning any bold strategies that we can’t yet foresee? Given his Jovian nature, I would be very surprised if he doesn’t try to turn this defeat into something resembling a longer-term victory. We will see it soon.
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