Lula suffers to govern Brazil after his spectacular political resurrection

When the judge stepped on his heels, the Brazilian Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 79, made it clear that he would not flee abroad or an embassy. He would demonstrate his innocence. It was imprisoned for several cases later annulled. The extraordinary political resurrection culminated with an electoral victory in 2022 that entered history as the most tight. That result anticipated a third mandate of the leftist much more uphill than the previous ones (2003-2010). Soon it was brutally confirmed. In the eighth day back to office, Bolsonarism tried to force it. Failure. On January 1, Lula reached the equator of his mandate. He completed ten years in power, only Emperor Pedro II and Getulio Vargas overcome him.

The leader of the Brazilian left closes a marked biennium – in having – for institutional stability, the return of Brazil to the great international forums, an economy that grows more and the recycling of the most successful programs of progressive governments. In it, the failure of draft diplomatic initiatives, such as Venezuela, the enormous difficulty that the people feel in their pocket the economic improvement, overcome the blockade of a hostile congress and the contradiction of aspiring to lead the green transition without giving up Keep looking for oil, even in the Amazon.

While the head of the opposition, the former president of the extreme right Jair Bolsonaro is disabled and pending whether the union attorney agrees to process it by coup, President Lula has just suffered two brain operations that have opened the debate on his age and his age and Idea of ​​appearing to re -election in 2026. Talking openly about the succession is still taboo.

It maintains almost intact the absolutely central role in Brazilian politics since the end of the XX. A recent survey figure in a third support for your government and in a third the rejection. Another places Lula as a winner before anyone, although he harvests a rejection of 48%.

Relay in communication

Unsatisfied with these numbers, Lula has released 2025 with the relay of the Secretary of Communication, which in a few days has received more times than 17 of his ministers in 2024. He considers that the government must better sell its achievements. The end of the verification of content on Facebook and Instagram, which the opposition praises, has it very worried. Lula still has no mobile, but knows the corrosive effect of misinformation.

Last Monday he brought together his 39 ministers, who warned them: “2025 is the year of the great harvest. We can no longer invent anything, we have to collect the planted. ” Right now, the priority mission, reduce food inflation.

Brazil, back

Lula with Biden. Lula with XI. Lula with Macron, with Von der Leyen, with Modi, with Sánchez, with Meloni … The biennium has been a festival meetings with leaders from the entire planet in about thirty official trips. “Lula has helped Brazil as a relevant actor in the international stage after a period of diplomatic isolation” with Bolsonaro, explains Tatiana Vargas-Maia, a specialist in international relations at the University of Rio Grande do Sul. He has reinforced alliances in Latin America in Latin America , Africa and the BRICS, returned as a relevant voice of the Global South to Multilateral Forums and, as a climax, welcomed the last Summit of the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, where the leaders hugged the alliance against hunger. This 2025 will receive the BRICS and the COP30 will be in the Amazon. Although Brazil “has exercised a notable global leadership in the climatic agenda,” Vargas-Maia points out that “it has been less incisive than expected.”

Near Casa, Venezuela and Argentina have been the headaches. And have weighed the role of Brazil as a regional articulator and its efforts for greater Latin American integration. Lula’s power of persuasion was dramatically questioned by Maduro. A painful failure because Lula premiered with a summit to get Chavismo out of ostracism, which ignored her appeased movements. Vargasiaia points out that “the relationship between Lula and Maduro is marked by a significant distancing (…) by mutual distrust, especially after the controversial Venezuelan elections, whose result Brazil does not recognize.” Milei’s landing sowed uncertainty, aggravated by the threat of leaving Mercosur and criticism of the bilateral relationship.

The UE-Mercosur agreement pleased Europe, disappointed by Lula’s attacks to Zelensky.

Economy, joy

Economist Carla Beni, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, lists the achievements in that area when he stops and exclaims: “Ah, a very important factor is stability. We no longer have an executive chief who says every week there will be a blow. ” It emphasizes that GDP has grown more than 3%, “although the real interest rate is the highest in the world, the strong reduction of poverty, the real increase in minimum wage, unemployment in historical minimums… but, he points out,“ “ There is a divergence between the economic reality and the perception of people. ” A distortion attributed to inflation, the panic tone of the media and polarization. The specialist considers the president “defensive in front of an endorsed financial market.”

In Beni’s opinion, the big problem is reindustrialization, which does not advance, although “it is the only thing that can place Brazil on the sustainable growth route.” He also criticizes that agrarian reform is totally paralyzed. ” And highlights the specific aids for agribusiness – ”more robust than those of the last year of Bolsonaro” – and the microenterprises, groups where the rejection of the leader of the Workers Party reigns.

Juliana Inhasz, economist and insper teacher, agrees that Brazil requires more solid growth and points to accounts and the enormous public debt: “Low unemployment and increase in income are on account of government expenses. Fiscal balance is still a very distant dream. ”

Environment, Lights and Shadows

After his first victory, Lula’s first international trip went to a climate summit. The message was clear. The first was to rebuild the ministry and environmental agencies because Bolsonaro left destroyed land, explains Suely Araújo, public policy coordinator of the Climate Observatory, an NGOs coalition. Among the successes, he points out the impressive drop in deforestation, especially in the Amazon, and the enormous increase of money for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, with the paste that they are loans. But Lula’s attitude has been more shy than expected.

It stands out between the negative “the great contradiction of Lula 3 in the energy area”, between the discourse against climate change and the explicit intention of moving from the eighth world producer of oil to the room. “Expanding oil production helps worsen the climatic crisis,” emphasizes Araujo. “Brazil should lead with the example and approve a schedule for the reduction of exploration, production and use of fossil fuels.” According to this expert, the federal government, state and municipalities need to urgently improve fire fighting. And penalties for pyómanos and reckless must be more severe.

Congress hostage

Lula took advantage of the commemoration of the second anniversary of the coup attempt, on January 8, to remember that only in democracy a worker without a university degree manages to reach the presidency. The leftist defeated Bolsonaro with democracy as a flag at the head of a wide coalition, but without a parliamentary majority. Both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate are dominated by Bolsonaro allies. “The Government is totally hostage of center [los partidos del llamado gran centro]increasingly ideologized and shuddered to the right, ”explains political scientist Esther Solano, from the University of São Paulo. “The Lula government is surviving politically, trying not to be engulfed by the increasingly demanding centride in economic and positions.” He explains that, given this hostility, the most ideological issues (such as a woman, indigenous or environment) have been parked and political capital is reversed in economic laws such as tax reform.

For Solano, Lula has failed to reissue “the great magic of Lula 1 and 2, that economic miracle that content the popular classes and the market.”

Age and a successor?

The Brazilians are very aware about ageism, perhaps to that obeys that in the last campaign the age of Lula was not debated. In public, he is seen in shape and his official photographer strives to active and vigorous shown. The recent emergency brain operation has opened, in the press, the debate on whether it is convenient to look for a fourth term. He lets himself be loved and reiterates that if the party needs there it will be.

At the first ministerial meeting of the year, he mentioned, according to Folha de S.Paulothe issue of succession, pointing out that perhaps if Joe Biden had previously retired the result in the US would be different and admitting that some unforeseen person outside his will could prevent him from presenting himself to re -election.

Lula always avoided forge a successor. He has enormous appreciation for Fernando Haddad, who replaced him as a candidate for imprisoning and which he placed as Minister of Finance. Haddad has pleasantly surprised even the voracious financial market, but his lack of charisma is Palmaria. Although they say that Joe Biden’s resignation hit him hard, no leftist candidate shades him.

Arduous future

Lula was one of the first leaders to congratulate Donald Trump after his inauguration. Brazil trusts not to take it with them, in the Greenland style, but as president of the BRICs it is an easy target. Maintaining the balance between Beijing and Washington will be a huge challenge

Vargas-Maia states that in foreign policy, Lula must prioritize the consolidation of Brazil as a global leader in the climatic agenda and attract international financing for environmental initiatives.

Internally, the solo political scientist predicts an arduous future to the PT and its leader, given the result that the municipal ones of 2024 left. “The left still orbit too much around Lula while we see a right and a very fertile extreme right, with New characters, new ecosystems, very dynamic in the digital field. A fragmented field, yes, but stronger and alive than the PT ”. Consider the party “representative of a cycle that has already passed” and with enormous difficulties to connect even with youth or parts of the periphery. “How can the PT open a new cycle? It is not a communication problem, but of background: what you want to communicate and what audience. ”