Aleksandr Lukashenko does not forget that almost five years ago, in the summer of 2020, he was about to be destroyed of the power he has held since 1994. The hundreds of thousands of Belarusians who protested against electoral fraud in the elections of that year still fear that The Secret Service, the local KGB, identifies them in an image. “They recorded everything, they continue to track us, they are years of systematic cleaning,” one of the protesters who protested against Lukashenko tells this newspaper. “There is no day that do not stop more people. You live with the fear that one day they will appear at your door, ”he adds. Almost a five years later nobody expects protests after this Sunday’s presidential elections. Their leaders are in jail or in exile, like thousands of bellruzos more.
Belarus is a “very quiet” country and Minsk a “very careful” city, according to the people they ask. The center of the capital is plagued with coffees and life runs normally as long as it is not talk about politics. This is Lukashenko’s great political asset. In return, yes, to annihilate freedom of expression. Citizens are aware that expressing a word that does not like the regime can mean jail.
“There are more than 1,200 political prisoners, including the candidate who was more popular, Viktor Babariko; The arrests continue and the Government prohibits the existence of independent bellruse media. These elections will not be fair or free, ”he emphasizes by telephone from exile Iván Kravtsov, executive secretary of the Coordinating Council of the Belarusian opposition.
The elections began on January 21 with the anticipated vote, although the results will not be known until the night of 26. The dissident qualifies these elections as a “shock test” of the Belarusian regime to verify its control of the country, since the protests Of 2020 “they were a surprise for Lukashenko, Russia and Europe.” And he adds that they will have a psychological effect on the population: “Many beamorruse will feel that this Sunday is the end of the open stage in 2020.”
Kravtsov admits that Lukashenko has pointed a victory by forcing their rivals into exile: “The 2020 heroes lose relevance in the eyes of the berousy because time passes and they have no ability to influence. By being declared terrorists, following them is dangerous, and people now only try to survive. ”
“I’m not going to throw my life and that of my family in jail for going out with a poster,” says Olya, teacher and mother of three children. This woman manifested in 2020, but today they even fear her talking to a journalist accredited in the center of Minsk. “Everything is calm, what else can be said?”, Ironizes nervous when asking about the situation in the country.
“People are afraid, they only speak in the kitchen, as in Soviet times,” says Pavel Sapelko, a lawyer for the human rights defenders Vieastá, whose director, the Nobel Prize for Peace Ales Bialiatski, has also been imprisoned by the Belarusian regime.
“The repression will continue after the elections,” says Sapelko. His NGO has identified at least 3,720 citizens sentenced so far for participating in the demonstrations of 2020, although thousands more have been investigated.
“I don’t want to talk, it’s dangerous,” replies a young woman who has stopped smoking on a central walk in the capital. Many other Belarusians excuse themselves: “I’m in a hurry” and “I’m waiting for a taxi, little left,” they are the most common.
“It’s better not to talk much,” says another man in his 40s. “Now it is in a way less dangerous to walk down the street because they have cleaned To the entire opposition and do not watch us the same, ”he adds with a sigh before regretting that many of his family and friends have been forced to flee from his home.
In the political conditions of Belarus it is impossible to probe what is the real support of Lukashenko, although it has its supporters. And unlike his detractors, nobody cares about saying his name when there is no fear.
“To shit the opposition! Aleksandr Grigórievich guarantees us peace and tranquility, ”Stanislav, a native of kyiv and Medium Age. “Everything is allowed, haven’t you let you in?”
“I will vote for Lukashenko. I am against a maidan, of bloody revolutions, I am on the side of the legal elections, ”says Angelica. This pensioner laughs when asked if Sunday’s elections will be clean. “And in your country? The powerful pursue their interests and simple people already have enough with their own problems. Lukashenko guarantees us stability. Look at this street, it is calm, all people are the same, opponents or government, you don’t see what goes through their heads. ”
This Sunday’s elections are presented Lukashenko and four more candidates, all approved by the president himself and who have been accused of the opposition of theatricalization of the elections to wrap them with a simulation of truthfulness.
One of them is Hanna Kanapatskaya. It was presented in 2020 and refuses to undertake any type of protest against the president. “I propose to reform the system to a parliamentary republic and negotiate the amnesty or the pardon of all the people who participated in the 2020 events,” she responds to El País in a solo picket in Minsk when asked what their great objectives are this Sunday.
Kanapatskaya rules out the berorrues to protest if this Sunday is discovered electoral frauds as in the 2020 elections. “If my participation in this campaign is not as productive as I hope, then I will prepare for the 2030 elections,” says the candidate, That he also avoids answering what measures would take if Lukashenko’s great valider, Vladimir Putin, pushes him to participate directly in the invasion of Ukraine. “The possibilities are minimal, we must thank the current president because he prevented the participation of Belarus in these military actions.”
In spite of everything, the candidate has the support of some opponents who are still in the country. For example, of the Serguéi Vozniak political express, leader of a communist party that was liquidated by the Government. “Kanapatskaya is the only Democratic alternative,” he says in a cafeteria with Angelica, also the candidate’s collaborator.
“He will not win on Sunday, he is totally clear, but allows us to have a government certificate to carry out rallies and other political activities throughout the country,” explains Vozniak.
“Our two main objectives are to recover communication with the Belarusians and achieve the amnesty of all opponents,” says the politician, aware that there are numerous red lines in the interview that should not be transferred to avoid jail. “Now they stop you for giving a likes on social networks, but we hope the government is softened after the elections if there are no protests. Then we can work for a change of course. ”
