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Libya: Why are Haftar and Aguila rushing to block the road to Dbeibeh’s government? (To analyse)

AA / Istanbul
In a new absurd measure by the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies in Libya, Aguila Salah, the results of the motion of no confidence launched against the Government of National Union have been falsified, which risks generating serious and dangerous fallout for the country. future of the country on more than one level.
The first of these fallouts consists of hampering the holding of the presidential and legislative elections initially scheduled for about three months and torpedoing the Political Agreement signed in Geneva and Tunis as well as the further split of the country’s institutions, essentially the Parliament. itself, which will be followed by the formation of a government in the east, a move that had been threatened many times before by Aguila Salah.
However, the unlikely and least bad scenario is to repeal the motion of censure, with the reason for the lack of a quorum, to dismiss Aguila Salah from the presidency of the Parliament and to transfer the seat of the chamber to Tripoli, in order to avoid that the deputies are not hostages in the hands of “regional parties”, as demanded by many Libyan activists.

– The second forgery

A few days after the promulgation by Aguila Salha of the law relating to the election of the president, without approval of the chamber of deputies, the recognition of this text by the UN Mission, the Electoral Commission and the Western countries encouraged him to proceed to a second falsification, which this time affected the motion of censure initiated against the Union government led by Abdelhamid Dbeibeh.
The Union government obtained confidence in March after collecting 120 votes out of a total of 170, that is to say beyond the qualified majority, and this according to the provisions of the Political Agreement.
However, during the government’s withdrawal of confidence last Tuesday, reference was made to the internal regulations of the Chamber of Deputies which provide for an absolute majority of only (50 + 1), which is equivalent to 86 votes.
The total number of deputies who were present during the session devoted to the vote of the motion of censure against the government, held in the city of Tobruk (east), did not exceed 113, i.e. less than the 120 votes needed by Aguila. Salah to bring down the Union government on a regular basis.
Despite this, chamber spokesman Abdallah Blihek announced the withdrawal of confidence with a majority of 89 deputies, which is below the legal quorum required.
And even though we would accept that the withdrawal of confidence only requires an absolute majority (50 + 1), the fact remains that 38 deputies who attended the meeting signed a press release in which they claim to have voted against the motion of censure, which means that a maximum of 75 parliamentarians voted in favor of the said motion, a figure below the absolute majority threshold set by Aguila Salah and his coterie.
All this stratagem shows a garish falsification made during the announcement of the government’s withdrawal of confidence, a falsification assumed in the first place by Aguila Salah.
MP Ammar Ablek said that “the process of withdrawal of government confidence was tampered with by the government presidency and during the vote, the legal quorum was never met”.
He indicated that “the number of deputies present at the meeting amounted to 113 and it was announced the vote of 89 deputies to claim to have reached the quorum while the Skhirat Agreement mentions that the withdrawal of the confidence of the government demands that 120 favorable votes be obtained ”.

– Such is taken who believed to take

The Head of Government reacted against the withdrawal of confidence from his cabinet by calling on the Libyan people to flock from all the cities of the country to the capital Tripoli in order to demonstrate against this decision on Friday.
Hashtags have been disseminated on many pages of social networks to call for the dissolution of the Chamber of Deputies, at the end of seven lean years punctuated by disappointments and which have seen the submission of a draft Constitution to the referendum and the adoption of an electoral law to govern the presidential and legislative elections in a transparent manner.
Many activists have demanded, for their part, to remove Aguila Salah from the head of Parliament, given the country’s need for a legislative institution to institute electoral laws, to reach common ground with the other parties, in particular, the High Council of State, in order to elaborate and approve the Constitutional Rule.
Although the parliament spokesperson considered Dbeibeh’s government to be a government of day-to-day management, in the sense that it is not empowered to enter into meaningful deals, either within the countries or with foreign parties, the fact remains that the United Nations Mission has affirmed that it is still the legitimate government in Libya.
The UN Mission urged the Chamber of Deputies to focus on completing its initiated work on the Election Law and the Constitutional Framework, in harmony with other related parties, while refraining from taking any action that risks undermining it. undermine the electoral process or undermine the stability and unity of the country.
Likewise, the spokesperson for the High Council of State (legislative consultative) warned that the announcement by Parliament of the withdrawal of government confidence is “contrary to the Reconciliation Agreement”.
The spokesperson was alluding to the fact that the Union government is the product of arrangements between several protagonists and that if one of the protagonists withdraws his trust from the others, this is synonymous with withdrawing from this arrangement, which risks to threaten the entire Political Agreement, or worse yet, the Ceasefire Agreement.
Criticism of Aguila Salah’s plot against the government has been leveled even by mayors. Indeed, 65 of them at least rejected this decision. The mayor of Tobruk even went so far as to threaten to expel the deputies from his town, declaring in this regard: “We will be forced to take a stand against the presence of the chamber of deputies in the town”.
In addition to this, several political parties have been hostile to the action taken by Aguila Salah against the government, such as the Justice and Building Party (of Islamic persuasion) and the Change Party (Liberal ).

– Concerns about the growing popularity of Dbeibeh

The government’s withdrawal of confidence came just days after Dbeibeh signed a series of deals with Egypt worth more than $ 30 billion and his decision to open the doors wide. from the labor market to more than one million Egyptian workers from next October.
Cairo could thus renounce the total support given to Haftar and Salah by taking sides, if only partially, in favor of Dbeibeh, insofar as the latter presents it with a far better offer than that proposed by the tandem of the alliance of the east of the country. This element makes the desire of Haftar and Salah to dethrone Dbeibeh from the government even more insistent and persistent, seen as a top priority.
It should also be noted that Dbeibeh managed to break the ice and eliminate the misunderstanding between Libya and Tunisia by reopening the borders between the two neighboring countries, just as his third visit to Malta resulted in the resumption of air services. between Tripoli and Valletta.
Several countries have also decided to reopen their embassies in Tripoli or announced a forthcoming resumption of their diplomatic and consular activities, like Algeria, with which Dbeibeh has decided to reopen the land borders, which are a thousand kilometers long.
The straw which broke the camel’s back between Haftar and Aguila, on the one hand, and Dbeibeh on the other hand, is that of the “marriage support fund” which many deputies opposed, but which allowed the Chief of government to heal and increase its popularity among young people, and which has made Dbeibeh a danger hanging over Haftar and Aguila, should he decide to run for president.
The growing population of Dbeibeh threatens Haftar and Aguila Salah’s project to win the presidential election, especially as he uses the weapon of the money he masters as a businessman to make faced with the political and military failure of the commander of the militias in the east and the president of the Chamber of Deputies of Tobruk.
It should be recalled that Dbeibeh also initially refused to allocate budgeted funds to Haftar’s militias, but faced with pressure from the Chamber of Deputies, he granted them 2.5 billion Libyan dinars (1 US dollar = 4 , 48 dinars) ,.
Media sources and activists evoke that Haftar had claimed three times this figure while the budget of the Ministry of Defense does not exceed 5 billion dinars.
It is for all these reasons that Haftar and Aguila Salah hasten to block the road to Dbeibeh, preventing it from managing the revenue generated by oil, whose prices have risen, and which with each increase, the Chief government will have greater strength and leeway to mobilize more popular support as well as among the ranks of mayors and among the heads of security and military units.
This is why Aguila Salah and her clan have strengthened their coordination with Haftar to withdraw the confidence of the government and make it a government for the management of current affairs, before it engulfs them; the objective being to limit its capacity to spend more funds and to sign more conventions and treaties with the influential countries in the Libyan file.

In a second stage, a parallel government will be announced, which will be headed by the former Head of the Provisional Government, Abdallah al-Théni, which will be synonymous with the coup de grace to the Accord. policy and return of the country at the time of the government of the National Entente, marked by dissensions and conflicts and probably at the stage of the division of the country like the two Koreas.

* Translated from Arabic by Hatem Kattou

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