After five years at the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell said goodbye this Thursday to a Middle East that is going through its biggest crisis in decades and leaves little reason for optimism, particularly in recent weeks, which have sunk hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. It was his last trip to the region as High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the EU and, shortly before boarding the plane in Beirut, he admitted that, since his previous visit, last January, “the drums of war have not stopped beating” and the “fears” he pointed out then have only increased: “More escalation, more regional spread of the Gaza war and more widespread human suffering.”
It was the last act of the latest tour, which has taken him to Egypt and will conclude this Friday in Madrid, with his participation in the meeting of ministers of Arab and European countries on how to make a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict a reality, which today seems further away than ever. Borrell also intended to visit Israel, but his foreign minister, Israel Katz, did not give him a date, as he is the senior EU official most critical of the invasion of Gaza and the colonisation of the West Bank. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is now counting down the weeks until the prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, takes over. It will be, in principle, on 30 November, if she gets the go-ahead from the European Parliament.
During the tour, Borrell visited two of the points that most concern the international community. One, Rafah, on the Egyptian border with Gaza, where he accused Israel of “massive violations of human rights” while the occasional bombing could be heard. Israeli troops took over the Gazan part of the border strip in May, called the Philadelphia Corridor, which Netanyahu insists on controlling once the war is over. “If you stay in the Philadelphia Corridor, you stay in the Gaza Strip. You don’t have to go back,” said Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in an interview last week, one of the main supporters of the recolonization of Gaza within the Israeli coalition government.
The other point has been Naqura, the headquarters of the mission of blue helmetsThe Hezbollah is deployed from the Litani River to the Lebanese border with Israel, which has been in a low-intensity war for 11 months. The spikes in the exchange of fire, such as the one experienced these days on the border, are a reminder of its explosive potential, despite the relief (“I think we have avoided the worst,” Borrell admitted) that has prevailed since August 25, due to the relatively moderate response of Hezbollah to the assassination of its number two, Fuad Shukr, which had raised fears of a regional war.
The night before Borrell’s visit, for example, the Israeli air force bombed 17 points in three different areas, an unusual number. The high representative had to wait briefly, in fact, for the alert level to be lowered before being able to visit the headquarters, in an area less affected by the conflict than the one commanded by Spain, to the east. When he returned, the Israeli army reported the launching by the Hezbollah militia – which insists that it will only stop attacking when Israel stops bombing Gaza – of 60 projectiles in one hour.
“War is never inevitable. It depends on the will to avoid it” […] So far, the announced all-out war in southern Lebanon with an invasion has not happened. This is good news. Nevertheless, unfortunately […] “The threat still exists. And the destruction and daily bombings continue,” Borrell warned at a press conference in Beirut after meeting with the Lebanese Foreign Minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, who did not want to answer questions from the press.
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The High Representative called for “continuing to push for a comprehensive peace in the region, which means that Israel’s security depends on the Palestinian people’s ability to have a future based on their own State and freedom” and also influences the cross-border attacks on the Israeli-Lebanese border and the attacks by the Houthis in Yemen on shipping in the Red Sea. “Regrettably, the massacres in Gaza, the threat on the Lebanese border and the colonisation in the West Bank continue,” he added.
Regional powers
Just as the blood in Gaza eventually crosses borders, so does the influence of regional powers. Borrell has urged Lebanon’s leaders to “work together in the interest of the nation and the state” before adding, on two occasions, “and no one else’s.” This is apparently an allusion to Iran, the godfather of the most powerful militia in the Middle East, Hezbollah, which it arms mainly through the Syrian route.
Nobody lifts a finger without his green light in a country with a paralysing confessional structure and mired in a deep political and economic crisis. The presidency has been vacant since October 2022, due to a lack of agreement on a successor, and Prime Minister Nayib Mikati holds the post on an interim basis. He is one of the leaders with whom Borrell met. He also met with the head of the Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun; the speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berry; and the historic Druze leader Walid Jumblat.
The last time Borrell came, just eight months ago, each dollar was exchanged for about 45,000 Lebanese pounds. Today, it is 90,000. Prices are now marked and paid for, almost indiscriminately, in both currencies; and there are hardly any shops left that accept card payments. The reforms that donors are calling for – such as the banking reform, which Borrell described on Thursday as “crucial” – remain stalled.
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