Jihadist violence and popular discontent erode the Sahel military junta

The military junta that seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger between 2020 and 2023 are immersed in a wave of unprecedented terrorist violence and repression that has opened a cycle of growing popular discontent and internal instability. Driven by the promise of stopping a jihadist insurgency that began 12 years ago and greeted with demonstrations of support and cheers, they turned towards Russia as a new military ally to the detriment of France, but their few victories on the battlefield and their hostility against all signs of criticism feed an internal malaise that is increasingly difficult to silence.

“There is no doubt that the disappointment is there. After he came to power, a part of the population disappointed by the previous regimes was enthusiastic. But months and years pass and no clear results are seen in the fight against jihadism,” says Gilles Yabi, head of the Wathi analysis center. “Another problem is that it has not been possible to associate civil society actors with these regimes. The national dialogue processes undertaken have been more to validate the decisions of the military than a true space for debate. Finally, there is the economic impact for the population that has a very difficult time surviving, such as the constant power outages and the high cost of living in Bamako, the Malian capital, which disrupt everything,” he adds.

On June 11, Burkina Faso experienced one of the worst jihadist attacks in its history. Hundreds of radicals forcibly took over the Mansila military base, near the border with Niger, and razed the town. The brutal offensive, whose responsibility was claimed by the main jihadist actor in the region, the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (JNIM), linked to Al Qaeda, left behind a hundred soldiers and dozens of civilians murdered and seven kidnapped soldiers, as well as numerous captured weapons, according to the terrorists themselves. Although the military junta chaired by Captain Ibrahim Traoré has not provided official information about the incident, the hard blow was felt in the capital in the form of a shooting near the presidential headquarters that has not been completely clarified.

“There are serious internal divisions in the Burkina Faso army,” says Ibrahim Yahaya, coordinator for the Sahel of the International Crisis Group. “They lack material and economic means to face the challenge, even very basic things like rifles.” In the opinion of this expert, it is the weakest regime of the three. “Armed groups are present in more than half of its territory and there is no great progress. Their strategy has been based on the enrollment of volunteers, but they are poorly equipped and have become the main victims of the jihadists. In the end, they have turned to Russian mercenaries, but more to protect themselves than to combat armed groups,” adds the expert.

Epicenter of global terrorism

The Mansila attack was not an isolated event. In 2023, the Sahel became the epicenter of global terrorism with one in three deaths in the world from this cause, according to the Global Terrorism Index published by the Institute for Economics and Peace. For the first time, Burkina Faso leads the statistics, with 1,907 of the 8,352 total deaths, while Mali is in third place with 753 murdered. “It is not surprising, because the military came to power to confront jihadism in a more offensive way than previous governments. This means more confrontation and more deaths,” explains Yabi. However, they are having a hard time recovering the ground lost to the radicals.

Meanwhile, hundreds of citizens and members of the political class who have dared to criticize the military junta are suffering unprecedented harassment. Last November, a group of journalists, activists and opinion leaders denounced threats, judicial harassment, arbitrary imprisonment, illegal detentions, exile and even the forced sending of activists to the front. “Instead of focusing on the recovery of territory, the military junta is committed to preserving its power and demolishing democracy,” the group said in a statement. One of the most recent cases has been that of the lawyer Guy Hervé Kam, founder of the movement Balai Citoyendetained since May 29 in a military prison and accused of conspiracy against the State, according to Amnesty International

In neighboring Mali, the army and its Russian allies have launched a broad military offensive in both the center and the north of the country that has achieved some symbolic victories, such as the capture of Kidal from the Tuareg rebels last 2023. However, However, large areas of the country, especially in the Mopti and Menaka regions, continue to be frequent scenes of jihadist attacks. The murders, abuses and rapes committed against civilians by the Russian army and mercenaries, as witnessed by United Nations reports such as that of Moura or those fleeing the country to Mauritania, reveal the indiscriminate violence of the regime. In the north, Tuareg independence fighters are reorganizing to hit back.

For its part, in Bamako, the regime of Colonel Assimi Goïta has suspended all political activity and crushes any internal criticism. Last March, some 80 political parties and civil society organizations demanded the announcement of free and transparent elections to end the military regime. “The unrest is growing and even those who approved the coup d’état today feel betrayed,” says a Malian activist who does not reveal his identity for fear of reprisals. Eleven senior officials from different parties were arrested on June 20 when they were trying to organize a series of demonstrations against the regime and face an accusation of attempting to destabilize the State.

In Niger, where the military is about to complete a year in power, the threat from JNIM and the Islamic State, very present in the Tillabéri region, has now been joined by an incipient rebellion that has broken out in the north, led by members of the Tubu and Tuareg ethnic groups. On June 16, the Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) dynamited a section of the pipeline that transports crude oil from Niger to Benin. The military regime of General Abdourahamane Tiani has reinforced security in Agadez with Russian mercenaries, according to Reuters, while he detains former president Mohamed Bazoum, whom he has just lifted his immunity to try for high treason. This Friday, another armed group attacked a military convoy and kidnapped the prefect of Bilma to demand the release of Bazoum.

“The atmosphere in Niamey is tense,” says a Nigerien journalist who does not reveal his identity. “The Government not only expels or bans the French media. They have just tightened a law that prohibits the digital dissemination of data that could disturb public order, including a prison sentence. This is an open door to imprisoning journalists,” he adds. Idrissa Soumana Maïga, editor of the newspaper L’Enquêteur, has been in prison since April 29 for reporting on the alleged installation of Russian listening devices in public buildings. Numerous French journalists and media have been banned from the three countries.

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