Japan has warned that the chances of a “major earthquake” occurring in the near future have increased more than usual. It is the first time that the Japanese authorities have issued such a warning, which is part of a warning system that was put in place in 2017. The National Meteorological Agency has emphasized that such a “mega-quake” does not have to be imminent and that, for now, there is no need to evacuate the population, but it has urged residents to remain alert for about a week. The situation has led Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to cancel a planned trip to Central Asia on Friday in order to take up his crisis management duties, according to public broadcaster NHK.
The risk of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough is now “several times” higher than “under normal circumstances,” Japan’s Meteorological Agency said Thursday. The deep underwater depression, which stretches about 800 kilometers along Japan’s Pacific coast, is where the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate collide, so seismic activity is very high.
The warning came just hours after a 7.1-magnitude tremor struck the southwest of the country, prompting authorities to issue a tsunami warning. Although it did not cause significant damage, its epicentre was in waters near the southern island of Kyushu, on the western edge of the trench. Another 5.3-magnitude quake struck in Kanagawa prefecture near Tokyo on Friday, although no tsunami warning was issued this time.
The consequences of previous earthquakes in the Nankai Trough have been devastating, claiming thousands of lives. The last one originating in Nankai occurred in 1946, killing 1,400 people and injuring 2,600. In 2011, another mega-earthquake in Japan – and the resulting tsunami – killed nearly 20,000 people.
In the worst-case scenario, a powerful tremor could strike from the Kanto region in the east, where Tokyo is located, to Kyushu in the southwest, and waves generated by a subsequent tsunami could inundate coastal areas from Kanto to Okinawa in the south, according to Japanese officials. Experts cited by the Kyodo news agency believe there is a 70% to 80% chance of an 8- or 9-magnitude earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next three decades. In 2012, the government estimated that 323,000 people could die in a hypothetical earthquake and tsunami. The economic costs would exceed 11 trillion euros.
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The Meteorological Agency began operating a system to issue special information about earthquakes in the Nankai Trough in 2017 as part of disaster preparedness and response efforts in an area especially prone to large quakes. It is currently activated when an earthquake of magnitude 6.8 or greater hits the region or when unusual crustal movements are observed at plate boundaries. The current warning is the lower of the two types of alerts available to authorities and will be in effect for one week. Agency officials have stressed that such a warning does not guarantee that an earthquake will occur “in a certain time frame.”
Authorities have urged residents to be more vigilant for any unforeseen events in the coming days and asked those who cannot evacuate quickly to consider doing so voluntarily, NHK reported. People have also been advised to be cautious without disrupting their routines but to check evacuation routes and make sure their homes have sufficient supplies. Some bullet trains between Tokyo and Osaka are running more slowly as a precaution, the railway operator said, and nuclear power plants across the country are reviewing their disaster plans.
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