Sometimes the most hackneyed phrases are essential to describe a reality. In Ireland, after the long vote count after the general elections held last Friday, November 29, everything has changed so that everything remains the same. The two historic parties that have governed the country for the last four years, Fianna Fail (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), are preparing to begin negotiations to repeat the coalition. But their respective positions of strength have changed drastically.
The FF, with 48 deputies, has the upper hand. Its leader, Micheál Martin, is emerging as the new Irish Prime Minister, a position he already held during the first two years of the previous mandate. If the end of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, which left 300,000 more unemployed and a country rescued by the EU, seemed like the end of the FF and Martin – popular anger accused them of having favored bankers and real estate owners -, These elections have been his resurrection.
The FG and the still Prime Minister, Simon Harris, decided to bring forward the elections on the back of a budget surplus unknown in any other European country, which had its origin in the tax revenues generated by the presence on the island of large technological giants such as Google, Facebook or Apple. The play ended up going against him. The FG, which polls anticipated as the big winner of the electoral contest, finished third, with 38 seats.
Sinn Féin deflates
Sinn Féin (SF), which caused a historic surprise four years ago by being the party with the largest popular vote, has seen its expectations deflate in these elections. The party that for decades was the political voice of the terrorist organization IRA is in second position, with 39 deputies. It is consolidated as an option with the same strength as the two historical parties, but with many more difficulties to be relevant.
Dublin lawyer Mary Lou McDonald, who inherited the reins of the party from historic leader Gerry Adams, managed to transform the image of the SF as a party with a social message, somewhat anti-establishment and attractive to young voters. But it is still a stinking organization for the rest of the formations, which do not forget their past links with the IRA. Although McDonald has publicly aired the idea of a coalition with the rest of the minority parties, the numbers are not enough.
The new Irish Parliament has 174 deputies. A majority of 88 is needed to govern. The Greens have paid their support to the previous coalition government at the polls. Its presence in the Chamber has been reduced to one seat, after having had six. The two formations that have emerged with the greatest force have been the Labor Party, with 11 deputies, and the Social Democrats, with another 11. The warning from others from the environmentalists has led them both to maintain many reservations regarding future support for another Executive of the FF and the FG.
But maybe they don’t need them. The two historic parties have 86 deputies. They can look for the two they are missing among the 23 independent candidates who have won a seat in Parliament.
There is no rush, in any case. The deputies will not meet until December 18, and the negotiations between the FF and the FG, very focused on a Government program, will take time. For now, Simon Harris, the most scalded of the two contenders, has already put a first condition on the table. He demands “parity of consideration” between both parties, despite the difference of 10 seats that separates them. Harris and Martin will travel to Edinburgh this Friday to participate in a meeting of the British-Irish Council, which will also be attended by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer. It is possible that this will be the first face-to-face meeting of two politicians who have not yet exchanged a word since the elections.
