Iran accelerates the pace towards the nuclear bomb

Iran’s interest in the atomic bomb dates back to times before the Islamic Revolution. During the time of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, an ally of the United States, the first nuclear program was launched. Almost a decade ago, the Islamic Republic made a commitment to the main world powers to curb its aspirations and eliminate 97% of its stored enriched uranium. Today, with the pact now a dead letter and after several years of expansion and acceleration of its atomic plans, Iran is closer than ever to possessing the bomb, although its rulers deny that this is their intention. If Tehran chose to finish developing it, and assume the risks that this entails, its Armed Forces would begin to have nuclear capabilities in probably less than a year.

In 2015, Iran signed the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the US, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, Germany and the EU. Tehran agreed not to enrich uranium above 3.75% purity and to store a maximum of 200 kilograms, in addition to submitting to an unprecedented inspection regime, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions that were strangling its economy. Less than three years later, and when Iran was strictly complying with what was stipulated, Donald Trump unilaterally broke the nuclear pact — “the worst agreement in history,” in the words of the then president. Washington reimposed sanctions on Tehran and added new ones, with which it tried to suffocate Iranian oil.

After the US left the agreement, Iran no longer considered itself obliged to respect what was agreed; He began to violate the restrictions and, shortly after, far exceeded the established limits. In 2021, it began to enrich uranium with 60% purity at the Natanz nuclear center, in Isfahan, the province that was the scene of Friday’s attack with which Israel sent the message to Iran that it is willing (and has the necessary capabilities ) to hit the centers of the Iranian nuclear program. Before the signing of the 2015 agreement, Iran had not enriched uranium above 20%. A report from last February by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), linked to the UN, indicates that the Asian country already accumulates more than five tons of enriched uranium, enough to manufacture at least two nuclear bombs if purity were reached. of 90%.

Matthew Savill, a researcher at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), maintains that Iran could have uranium with the necessary concentration “in a matter of weeks; The question is how long it would take them to produce the essential weapons.” Savill adds that Iran would have to “develop a nuclear warhead and be able to integrate it, probably into a ballistic missile, to be able to launch it.” The RUSI expert and several Western intelligence services agree that Tehran would probably need “between six months and a year” to complete the process.

Although Iran is closer than ever to possessing the atomic bomb, the regime insists that it does not intend to manufacture it and, for the moment, there is no evidence to show that it has decided to take definitive steps. After Trump broke the agreement, Iran has steadily advanced its program, accumulating the material to develop atomic weapons, although without making any move—at least openly—to actually build it; It has become the only country that has practically everything necessary to produce a nuclear bomb, but it does not finish doing so.

Since the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the start of the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip, uranium enrichment has accelerated in the Islamic Republic and the debate has intensified over whether they should build the bomb, as some factions defend. ultranationalists. Hours before the Israeli attack last Friday, a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared that the country would consider “reviewing its nuclear doctrine.” Tehran’s fear lies mainly in the possibility that the United States and Israel would bomb its nuclear facilities if it were discovered that they were working on a secret plan to manufacture atomic weapons.

For Israel, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear bombs has been a strategic priority for decades. Both countries perceive each other as the main threats to their national security. During the years of hidden war, in which no one crossed the red line of attacking each other directly – as has happened in the last seven days – Israel has tried to sabotage Iranian atomic development, and the shadow of Mossad (espionage service Israeli Foreign Affairs) is behind the murder of several Iranian scientists who worked on the nuclear program. In April 2021, a cyberattack damaged the power grid at the Natanz facilities, just before uranium enrichment began to 60%. Israel, the only country that possesses nuclear bombs without publicly admitting it, never officially assumes responsibility for the attacks against Iranian interests, but neither does it deny its responsibility.

The Spanish-Iranian analyst Daniel Bashandeh considers that the latest events in the region may have the opposite effect of that intended by Israel and the United States for years. Iran could now “accelerate the nuclear issue as a last resort to protect itself. “The country can refocus attention on its nuclear program as a deterrent measure and to counter Israel’s intentions to condition the international agenda.”

Technically, the nuclear pact is still in force, although even Joe Biden has described it as “a dead deal.” Trump’s successor tried to resurrect some clauses upon arriving at the White House, but unlike what happened during the 2015 negotiations, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prohibited any type of direct communication with Washington.

Restrictions on inspections

IAEA inspectors still have access to the atomic facilities recognized by Tehran: those in Natanz and those in Fordow, an underground complex built on a mountain in the Kavir desert. Still, the erosion of the nuclear deal has completely limited the IAEA’s ability to adequately monitor the Iranian program. The agency’s workers can no longer carry out surprise inspections, access certain parts of the facilities or inventory the centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium.

The Iranian authorities have also removed countless cameras and sensors and have banned access to some inspectors from “hostile countries.” In recent years, they have expanded their uranium enrichment centers, mainly underground, in addition to strengthening their security. In spring 2023, satellite images demonstrated the construction of a new deep-sea fortified complex at Natanz.

The nuclear pact will definitively expire in October next year. Even if Trump fails to return to the White House, the chances of reaching a new agreement with the Islamic Republic seem nil. In the 2015 negotiations, Russia and China joined the efforts of Western powers to get Iran to abandon its ambitions. Now, Tehran is aware that Beijing, and especially Moscow, would block in the UN Security Council any initiative to impose new international sanctions on the ayatollah regime. Some analysts point out that closer relations with Russia – to which it supplies drones for the war in Ukraine – has emboldened Iran in recent years.

Barbara Slavin, a researcher at the Stimson Center, argues that “nuclear nonproliferation experts are desperately seeking new ideas to avoid what some have called the binary choice between bombing Iran or Iran having the bomb.” The analyst from the American research center emphasizes that “diplomacy is the only way to contain the Iranian nuclear program. If there ever was a military solution, which I doubt, it no longer exists.” Slavin believes that, after “the very restrained attack” by Israel on Friday, “Iran is not going to rush to make the nuclear bomb.”

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