Despite the difficulties in the supply chain due to the coronavirus pandemic, the rapid recovery of the Turkish economy, a strong spurt in industrial production, as well as an effective vaccination process have contributed to the fact that many international organizations and institutions began to revise their forecasts for Turkey’s GDP growth for the current year towards enhancements.
For example, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in its September interim economic outlook report, raised Turkey’s projected growth for 2021 by 2.7 points to 8.4 percent.
The growth of the Turkish economy next year is projected at 3.1 percent.
Turkey is expected to rank first among the OECD countries in terms of growth rates in 2021 and third among the G20 countries after India and China.
The World Bank has also revised its forecast for the growth of the Turkish economy for the current year, raising expectations from 5 percent to 8.5 percent with an increase of 3.5 points.
International rating agencies also revised their forecasts for Turkey’s economic growth for 2021 after the country’s economy showed record growth in the second quarter of this year.
Thus, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings in its September report “Prospects for the World Economy” raised the forecast for the growth of the Turkish economy for 2021 from 7.9 to 9.2 percent.
The agency predicts that Turkey’s economy will grow 4.5 percent in 2023, after slowing to 3.5 percent in 2022.
In turn, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) in a report published on September 28, said that the data on economic activity in Turkey is better than previously thought, and the forecast for the growth of the Turkish economy was raised from 6.1 to 8.6 percent. Turkey’s economic growth in 2022 is projected at 3.3 percent.
Moody’s improved its forecast for Turkey for 2021 from 5 to 6 percent, and for the next year from 3.5 to 3.6 percent.
Investment banks have also revised their forecasts for improvement.
The highest growth forecast for the Turkish economy for 2021 was given by Unicredit at 9.7 percent.
Unicredit, which raised its forecast for Turkey’s economic growth for 2021 from 7.5 percent to 9.7 percent, improved its forecast for 2022 from 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, one of the largest US investment banks, raised their forecast for Turkey’s economic growth for the current year from 6.8 percent to 8.4 percent and kept their 2022 forecast at 3.4 percent.
Bank Goldman Sachs also raised its forecasts for the growth of the Turkish economy – from 7.5 to 9.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Turkey’s economic growth for 2021 from 5.8 percent to 9 percent and kept the forecast for 2022 at 3.3 percent.
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