International diplomacy is working against the clock to prevent the Middle East powder keg from exploding after the assassinations of several Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, which have brought the spiral of tension in the region to its most dangerous point in the almost 10 months of conflict in Gaza. With eyes focused on Tehran and Beirut, peacemaking efforts are coming mainly from the countries that have mediated in recent months to try to get Israel and Hamas to agree on a ceasefire that would allow the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza and bring closer the end of the war. Among these mediators is the United States, Israel’s main ally and, at the same time, with close contacts among Gulf countries that can build bridges with Iran.
Israel is on high alert for possible responses to its attacks in Lebanon against the Lebanese militia party Hezbollah, and to the assassination in Iran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniya, an action that has not been claimed. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has predicted a “harsh punishment” and Hezbollah has made it known that the “determination and tenacity” of its fighters will increase after the death in an attack of its number two, Fuad Shukr. Israel also announced on Thursday that an attack last month in Gaza killed Hamas’ military chief, Mohamed Deif.
The US government, mired in a complicated election campaign, is concerned that the assassination of Haniya in Tehran could derail negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and lead to a flare-up of tensions. There are fears that the death of the leader of the radical Palestinian group’s representation in those talks could precipitate a reaction from Iran that could trigger a regional war.
From Mongolia, where he is on a tour of Asia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has launched an appeal to “all parties” to avoid any possible action that could fuel tensions, in an apparent message to Israel. “Right now, the path the region is on is one of more conflict, more violence, more suffering, more insecurity, and it is essential that we break that cycle. And that starts with a ceasefire,” he stressed. “To achieve this, the first thing is that all parties refrain from measures that escalate tensions. They also need to find reasons to reach an agreement, not look for reasons to delay or reject an agreement,” Blinken added.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby has also called for calm, saying Wednesday that it is “too early” to know what effect Haniya’s killing will have on the talks. Speaking from Qatar, another key mediator in the negotiations, Prime Minister Mohamed al Thani asked skeptically on social media: “Can mediation succeed when one side kills the other’s negotiator?”
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
Uncertainty
Kirby insisted that despite the uncertainty surrounding the talks, “that doesn’t mean” that they won’t “continue working on them.” The United States had said in previous days that these negotiations were closer than ever to yield results; an assertion that it has already reiterated on several occasions in the past without achieving an agreement like the one that allowed the release of a handful of hostages last November and briefly halted hostilities.
For the United States, it is essential that the talks do not fail. It does not want, in any way, to be dragged into a regional conflict, especially in the final stage of a tight election campaign that will culminate in November with the election between Republican Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. President Joe Biden, who announced his refusal to run for re-election 10 days ago, is staking a large part of his legacy as president on what happens in the Middle East and is personally involved in efforts to reach an agreement. This Thursday, he spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a conversation about “efforts to cool tensions” in which Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris also participated. “We believe that there is still room and time for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said on Wednesday.
Amid the tension, United Airlines and Delta Airlines have cancelled flights to Israel, while the State Department is urging its citizens not to travel to Lebanon. The United States has deployed about a dozen warships in the area, including the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, according to the newspaper The Washington Postalthough the Pentagon has not announced any new troop movements at this time.
Along with the US, Qatar and Egypt are leading the negotiations to try to achieve a truce in Gaza. Both have acknowledged that the assassinations of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas are not helping and have blamed Israel, but like Washington, neither has announced that contacts and negotiations to reach a truce have ended.
In an area where none of the actors is in favour of giving in – because that would be equivalent to defeat – putting the brakes on requires time that is not available now, amidst the growing threats. A large-scale regional confrontation would make it very difficult to turn back. That is why, in addition to this mediation that has been focused for months on trying to reach a truce in the Strip, a new diplomatic front is now being formed, whose mission is to go beyond the clash between Hamas and Israel and which is focusing its efforts on preventing revenge operations from being launched from Beirut or Tehran.
In the midst of the Olympic Games in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to pull the strings to contain Lebanon and Iran. On his social network X account, he alternates sporting glory with the role he wants to maintain as an actor in global geostrategy. “Our thoughts are with the hostages held by Hamas for 300 days. France continues to work for their release,” he wrote on Thursday. The president also spoke by telephone on Monday with the new president of Iran, Masud Pezeshkian, whom he asked to stop promoting “destabilising agents” in the region, in reference to Hezbollah and Hamas.
Haniya was killed in the Iranian capital, where he was attending Pezeshkian’s inauguration, which is a humiliation for Tehran, which directly accuses Israel. But such actions as Macron’s cannot be carried out by Washington, which does not have direct relations with the Ayatollahs’ regime.
Amid the warlike dialectic between both sides, Israeli military sources say that with regard to the Hezbollah threat they do not want an escalation and that they are not closing the door to diplomacy, but at the same time they want to make it clear that they are prepared for a high-level frontal war.
The other hotbed of tension is Tehran. “I don’t think Iran wants a major escalation now,” said Negar Mortazavi, an Iran expert and senior analyst at the Center for International Policy, speaking to Al Jazeera.
In mid-April, in response to a bombing of its consulate in Damascus, Syria, the Ayatollahs’ regime launched an unprecedented attack on Israel with more than 200 missiles and drones, but without causing any fatalities. The Israeli response, five days later, was measured and the exchange of attacks did not go any further. “I expect a similar situation again this time,” Mortazavi added.
Follow all the international information at Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.