How strong are far-right parties in Europe?

Far-right parties could achieve 22% of the votes in the European elections, according to the EuropeElects poll aggregate. They will be main forces.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is perhaps the leading force in the entire chamber, with 30 of 720 seats. Brothers of Italy, by Giorgia Meloni, could have more than 20 MEPs – more than the German CDU or the Spanish PSOE – and Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be eighth, with 15 seats.

To label far-right parties we have used the Populist list, which is maintained by a group of academics from European universities. Almost all of them are attached to two European groups: the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID). In the first group are Brothers of Italy (FdI), Law and Justice (PiS) and Vox. ID includes Le Pen’s party and the Italian League, but no longer AfD, which was expelled two weeks ago.

The growth of these groups testifies to the advance of the extreme right. In 2019 they achieved 18.4% of MEPs (138 out of 751, before they were reduced to 705 with the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU). Now the polls say that by keeping the AfD in the mix, they would increase their seats to 22% (158 out of 720).

The wave that has been rising for decades

The advance of groups classified as extreme right is not a new phenomenon in Europe. The best sign is found in the national parliaments. In the nineties, these forces barely obtained 3% of the votes in the parliamentary elections of each country. They grew from there, consolidating around 8% between 2000 and 2010. Contained during the worst of the crisis, starting in 2015 they took another leap forward: in the last decade they have doubled their support, going from 9% to 19%. One in five votes in Europe go to forces that Populist academics categorize as the radical right.

Far-right groups have a presence in most EU countries, although their strength varies, as the following graph shows.

In Hungary, the coalition around Fidesz achieved 54% of the votes and maintained Viktor Orbán’s Government in the 2022 elections. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy also govern, which obtained 26% of the votes, to which also the strength of the League. Other countries with great support for far-right formations are Poland (40%), Slovenia (32%) and the Netherlands (31%).

The growth dynamics of the extreme right have been varied. In countries like Italy or Hungary they are at maximum levels, after decades of presence. In Poland or the Netherlands they have grown little by little, while in Spain or Portugal they have arrived very recently.

However, there are also places where they became weaker after arriving. In Norway, they now get half as many votes as they did a decade ago. In Greece, Golden Dawn and ANEL reached 20% of the votes at the worst of its economic crisis, but in the last elections they did not exceed 4%.

Methodology

For this information, we have considered thirty European countries, all those that make up the European Union, with the exception of Cyprus, as well as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.

The data on parliamentary election results and government compositions come from the database of the specialized website ParlGov. We have added elections held after June 2023 that did not appear in the database. In some cases, when parties participate in a coalition, those votes have been classified according to the majority party in the alliance.

The list of parties classified as extreme right comes from the PopuList database, which is maintained by a group of academics from different European universities. We have added the recently created Polska Jest Jedna (Poland) and Republika (Slovakia) parties, which did not appear on the list.

Below you can consult the far-right parties in each country. Parties classified as extreme right by Populist with some uncertainty appear with an asterisk; for example because their ultra attitudes are recent or there are different factions within the formation.

Montse Hidalgo Pérez has participated in this piece.

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