Israel has one of the most powerful and sophisticated armies in the world, including nuclear weapons. It also has one of the largest relative to its population, which is less than 10 million inhabitants: almost 170,000 active-duty soldiers. Spain, with almost 49 million, had less than 117,000 in 2022, according to official data. Added to this are 465,000 reservists who can be called up in the event of war, of whom 360,000 have already been called up in the almost 12 months that the Gaza war has been going on. The military capacity of the Lebanese Shiite party-militia Hezbollah cannot even remotely compare with that of the Israeli Armed Forces. It is not a small enemy, however. The data on its arsenal are partial and, in many cases, come from calculations based on information from Israel and its ally, the United States, so they may not be exact. They do give an idea of why experts consider this militia to be the best-armed non-state actor in the world, with the backing of Iran, but also of Syria. It even stocks medium- and long-range missiles in its warehouses, capable of hitting the entire Israeli territory and vital infrastructure, that is, if they manage to get past Israel’s anti-aircraft defences. On Wednesday, Hezbollah attacked the Tel Aviv region with a ballistic missile, which was intercepted by Israel.
Fighters
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently increased his number of fighters to 100,000, a figure that Western foreign ministries reduce to less than half. According to a report by the bipartisan US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), “he has about 30,000 active fighters and up to 20,000 reserves, and his forces consist primarily of light infantry, which have historically been trained and built for stealth, mobility and autonomy.” The center cites an example, referring to the last major Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006. At that time, “rocket units [de la milicia] They were designed to establish a launch point, fire and disperse in less than 28 seconds, using pre-positioned equipment, underground shelters and mountain bikes.”
The militants have extensive experience in guerrilla warfare and urban combat. In addition, CSIS stresses, the group’s experience “fighting in support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria over the past decade has given it access to capabilities and skills used by conventional armies.” Haizam Amirah Fernandez, an analyst specializing in international relations in the Middle East, recently highlighted another advantage with this newspaper: motivation. In a hypothetical Israeli invasion, Hezbollah members would be fighting “to defend their land” from the invasion of another state. Despite its not inconsiderable military capacity, Hezbollah has lost since October 2023 – when it began its low-intensity war with Israel – commanders and hundreds of militants. They were joined last week by some 1,500 wounded militants, according to a militia source cited by Reuters, by the explosions of more than 5,000 search and rescue vehicles. walkie-talkiesEven so, in the event of a total war, this militia would be “a formidable enemy,” the American think tank stresses.
Rockets, missiles and tanks
Hezbollah has, according to estimates from various sources, between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles, most of them small, unguided, easily transported surface-to-surface artillery rockets, most notably the Katyusha rockets, used extensively in the 2006 war and supplied mainly by Iran. Since then, “Hezbollah has dramatically increased its access to long-range missiles” — up to 500 kilometers, that is, from the north to the south of Israel — CSIS notes, “meaning that much of Israel will feel the threat of Hezbollah attacks if the conflict escalates.” Only “a few hundred at most” of these missiles are guided, but the precision of these weapons “provides Hezbollah with the ability to strike high-value targets, vital economic centers and critical infrastructure” in Israel.
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
Hezbollah has also had access to Russian-made tanks, such as T-72s, through its involvement in the Syrian war. However, it is not clear whether the militants are trained to use or repair them. The tanks would also be easy targets for sophisticated Israeli fighter jets and drones.
Drones
Iran, the Shiite group’s main arms supplier, has provided the bulk of the unmanned aircraft it uses, including the Ayoub (Shahed-129), Mirsad 1 and 2, and Karrar types. It stocks commercial quadcopters and surveillance and attack drones, CSIS notes. The operators of these drones have been trained by the Quds Force, the regional arm of Iran’s parallel army, the Revolutionary Guard.
Anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft defense
Hezbollah uses anti-tank missiles, dubbed Thar Allah, specifically designed to overcome the protection system of Israeli Merkava tanks, the Lebanese satellite television channel Al Mayadeen confirmed last October, although it is not known whether they are effective. The militia also installs “Kornet anti-tank missiles on all-terrain vehicles,” the CSIS report said. Since 2006, Hezbollah has received anti-aircraft guns, portable air defense systems and short- and medium-range surface-to-air missile systems manufactured in Iran and Russia. None of these weapons are capable of countering Israel’s overwhelming air superiority, which even has around thirty state-of-the-art F-35 fighter jets. But this hegemony is no longer absolute, as it was in the past.
Geography and tunnels
Lebanese militants are familiar with the rocky hills of southern Lebanon. In that terrain, “any heavy Israeli ground military force attempting to move through the region would likely be restricted to the main, compact roads due to the mountainous terrain and therefore vulnerable to harassment” with anti-tank weapons, explosive devices and ambushes, CSIS warns. Like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah has built a network of tunnels and bunkers in those hills, which it is believed to use to launch rocket attacks and hide ballistic missiles. Iran and North Korea helped build that tunnel network after Israel’s 2006 invasion, according to a report by Alma, an Israeli think tank specializing in the Lebanese Shiite militia, cited by Reuters.
