The supply of weapons by the Western partners has been a crucial element in the resistance of Ukraine before the invasion of Russia. However, when three years of the large -scale Russian attack are about to be completed, the invaded country already has a very considerable defense industry. Herman Smetanin (Jarkóv, 1992), Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, offers his point of view on achievements and challenges of the arms sector of his country in an interview granted within the framework of the Davos Forum, in which he points out that more than one Third of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already internal production.
“In 2022 we had an armament production capacity in Ukraine of all classes for a value of 1,000 million dollars [950 millones de euros]. In 2023 we reached 3,000 million. Last year we reach 20,000 and the plan for 2025 already shows that we can produce at a level of 30,000 or 35,000 million dollars, ”says Smetanin.
The growth curve described by the minister is considerable. However, two problems subtract brightness from that trend: on the one hand, the insufficient budget prevents taking advantage of all that potential; On the other, the increase in Russian capacities at this time has also been more than remarkable.
“Last year, the budget only allowed us to exploit half of our production capacity of 20,000 million dollars. And for this year we calculate that there will be a potential of 15,000-17,000 million that we cannot take advantage of due to lack of financing, ”says Smetanin.
Given this mismatch, voices have emerged that suggest flexible export policy. Although at first glance it may seem illogical that a country that suffers a brutal attack export weapons, given the insufficiency of funds to boost production it can make sense to export surplus capacity, and with it achieve useful collection.
Asked about it, Smetanin points out that “in terms of law, there is no limitation in this regard.” “However,” he continues, “there is a commission that defines what we can export and what is not. It is composed of several representatives of government departments. At the moment, there is no decision made in this regard. ”
Lessons learned
The Ukrainian arms industry is not at the forefront in the most sophisticated systems, but the development of weapons production in constant use is interest in the lessons learned and the possibility of rapid adjustment and refinement. In that sense, the minister points out: “We build together the arsenal of the free world.”
The native Ukrainian capabilities are distributed very unequally in the necessary armament range, according to the data that Smetanin breakd down: “In deep -hit drones we produce 90% of what we use; If we talk about ammunition, 30%. However, if we talk about air defense, we depend a lot on abroad. ”
In mid -January, USA revealed details of his help to the development of the drone industry in Ukraine. Washington has not only given kyiv Armament, but also funds and advice to promote production capabilities that, in the case of drones, experts consider very high level. As reported The New York Timeslast October the Pentagon authorized a financing worth 800 million dollars in this sector.
A lot of help has come in the form of weapons delivery or support for the development of industrial capacities, but in barely enough quantities to resist the assault of a Russia that has reorganized its productive system making it a war economy, and which also also receives external support. “We fight against the Russian Federation. But, in addition, against the weapons and the troops provided by North Korea. Or against the drones that Iran facilitates. Therefore, our arms needs are gigantic, ”says the minister. In Davos, the president of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, said that Russia used around 200,000 soldiers in the February invasion of 2022. It now has some more than 600,000 deployed in the offensive, according to their calculations.
The development of national production capacity makes a lot of sense for several reasons, including the useful closeness between those who produce and those who use weapons, the economic activity that is created and also that the cost of production is lower than the corresponding by manufacture in countries Western
Asked about the development needs that it considers more strategic, Smetanin points out two: “We need air defense. Our engineers work hard on this, but the development of this type of systems requires a lot of time. On the other hand, we need general missile abilities. It is one thing to be able to reduce projectiles that arrive, and another is to have a sufficient arsenal so that they know that if they throw ten missiles twenty of ours will reach them. We need deterrent capacity. My mandate is to develop a powerful defense industry. To have peace, we must have a strong defense industry. ”
