Global military spending marks new high with steepest jump in 15 years

The echo caused by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, added to the tensions between the United States and countries like China and Iran, encourages an increasingly volatile world to arm itself at an urgent pace. Global military spending increased by 6.8% in 2023, the steepest rise in 15 years, according to data published this Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). The progress is important in Europe and is in line with its commitment to invest increasingly to counter the Russian threat and dependence on Washington, although the global boom is explained roughly due to the increase that occurred in all regions of the world.

“World military spending reached the highest level in history and shows no immediate signs of slowing down,” says Diego Lopes da Silva, senior researcher at Sipri and co-author of the study, which has recorded this data since 1988. After a decade of uninterrupted increase , a new high was reached at 2.4 trillion dollars (2.2 trillion euros), a figure comparable to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia. The expert explains that the large-scale war launched by Vladimir Putin on Ukraine “changed the perception that conventional conflicts [entre actores estatales] They were not a thing of the past” and this has prompted governments to focus on defense.

Faced with the scenario of a war that has now been going on for two years, Europe has decided to multiply its military investment efforts. Sipri data show that the continent increased spending by 16% in a single year (10% excluding Ukraine and Russia), only behind Africa (22%) and well above the Middle East (9%). or America (2.2%). The increase corresponds to the objective of most European countries to devote more money to defense, in line with the EU proposal. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, insisted last week on “spending more and spending better”, in the face of “the intentions of the [regímenes] authoritarians”, in reference to Iran, Russia or North Korea.

The spending boom in Europe also happens in a vulnerable context for Ukraine. After the failure of the counteroffensive last summer, the Russian army has managed to advance in several positions since the winter. The poor situation of the Ukrainian forces occurs despite the country’s significant investment, which for the first time was among the 10 biggest spenders, above powers such as France, Japan or Israel. Furthermore, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government dedicated 37% of Ukraine’s GDP to military spending, more than any other country in the world (Russia allocated 5.9%).

For Da Silva, “the fiscal space for Ukraine to increase its spending is very narrow and it needs the help of its Western partners.” However, voices continue to emerge that question the ability of the Ukrainian army to win the war and one of them is in the race for the White House: Donald Trump. Not only that. The Republican candidate has also questioned the founding defense base of NATO and has said that, under his mandate, the United States will not defend those member countries of the Alliance that do not comply with the spending objective of 2% of the GDP. Despite everything, kyiv scored a very important goal on Saturday, with the approval in the US House of Representatives of aid of 60.84 billion dollars (about 57 billion euros).

4.4 million a month for the Gaza war

In addition to the already significant instability caused by the Russian invasion, the Hamas attack on Israel in October, which triggered the Gaza war, ended up bringing military tensions to a maximum. Spending in the Middle East during 2023 increased more than in any other year in the last decade, according to Sipri. In Israel, military investment rose 24%, especially in the last three months of the year. While the monthly average before the conflict was 1.6 billion euros, by December this figure rose to 4.4 billion. “By 2024, we expect Israel’s spending to continue to increase, as the war in Gaza continues, as well as regional tensions,” says Da Silva.

Another relevant actor in the region is Iran, which, for its part, boosted spending for the Revolutionary Guard, the armed body responsible for supporting and training allied groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza or the Houthis in Yemen. Additionally, Tehran increased its funding to the industry that develops drones, which have become one of its greatest military assets.

The United States, with significant influence in the Middle East, has been preparing for years for a conflict in which it may be drawn into action. Under the wing of President Joe Biden, Washington remained the country with the highest military spending in the world. In 2023, it will invest 859 billion euros, capturing 37% of the global share, up to three times more than China (12%), according to data from the Swedish institute. Its priority was the “research, development, test and evaluation” category, which shows that it is increasingly moving away from counterinsurgency operations and asymmetric wars to focus on developing new defense and attack systems. Meanwhile, China—second in ranking— increased investment for the 29th consecutive year. The pace, however, has slowed in recent years as a result of the slowdown in the economy.

The third largest investing country in the world is Russia, which dedicated 5.9% of GDP to military spending, the highest level since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Even so, Sipri points out that, given Moscow’s opacity in terms of military financing, this figure could be much higher. The increase in spending (24%) was possible thanks to the strength of the Russian economy, which was able to tackle Western sanctions on oil and gas and is supported by its vast sovereign fund. The IMF last week revised its growth outlook for Russia to 3.2% in 2024, above the US (2.7%) or the euro zone (0.8%).

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