Social Democrat Dietmar Woidke is the most popular politician in Brandenburg. He is liked even by right-wing voters, who appreciate his success in getting the economy of this eastern German state surrounding Berlin back on track. With 2.5 million inhabitants, he is the most popular politician in the country. land Home to Tesla’s first factory in Europe and the airport serving the German capital, Brandenburg is doing well, which is why Woidke has made a political gamble that is as risky as it is effective: if he loses the election on Sunday, he will retire from the front line.
But in Brandenburg, much more is at stake than the political survival of the 62-year-old veteran Woidke, who has plastered the towns of land with a full-length smiling photo. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could become the largest party in the state of Thuringia, as it did three weeks ago. If the polls predict this, the SPD would suffer a major setback.
Brandenburg is the last major stronghold of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, where it has governed uninterruptedly since reunification. Unlike other states of former communist Germany, this land It is the epitome of political continuity, with only three presidents in over 34 years. Woidke’s predecessors, Manfred Stolpe and Matthias Platzeck, each won three consecutive terms.
“Losing Brandenburg would be a huge disappointment for the Social Democrats,” says Uwe Jun, a political scientist at the University of Trier. If the SPD comes second behind the ultras, “everyone would be looking towards the Willy-Brandt-Haus.” [la sede del partido en Berlín] in search of responsibility, and the main person responsible for the defeat would be the chancellor,” he added in a telephone conversation with Morning Express: “If they do not exceed 27 or 28%, rumours will return about whether Scholz is the most suitable to be a candidate next year.”
The election comes at a time of high tension, with the country increasingly polarised and the far right increasingly struggling to isolate itself. AfD’s success in Thuringia earlier this month marked the extremists’ first victory in a German parliament since World War II. In Saxony, they came second behind the conservatives by a narrow margin.
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The popularity of this anti-immigration party, which is under surveillance by the German secret services for its extremism, has gone hand in hand with the growth of debates around immigration and asylum policy. Scholz’s government, a coalition of social democrats, greens and liberals, has tightened legislation to increase deportations and withdraw benefits for refugees. Under pressure from the Christian Democrat opposition and the far-right, this month it imposed controls at all borders to combat illegal migration, in a blow to free movement in the EU that threatens the Schengen area.
Although immigration is a federal matter, polls show it has been the main concern of Brandenburg voters during the campaign. AfD candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt, 68, is on the list of confirmed right-wing extremists by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the country’s secret service, because of his connections to neo-Nazi groups. He speaks of the need for “mass deportations” and says that “remigration” – a term meaning the forced transfer of immigrants or people of foreign origin – “is not a secret plan, but a promise.” After the jihadist attack in Solingen at the end of August, when a Syrian refugee allegedly stabbed three people to death, he proposed banning all asylum seekers from public events.
Sanitary cordon
The AfD is seeking to consolidate its power in Brandenburg on Sunday. Even if it wins, it will not be able to form a government because all democratic parties are applying a cordon sanitaire. Its aim is to legitimise itself from the opposition and make the work of the other parties as difficult as possible. In Thuringia, it has obtained a blocking minority (more than a third of the seats), which prevents the other parties from reaching the two-thirds necessary to make some decisions at the parliamentary level. land.
The latest poll by public broadcaster ZDF predicts a narrow lead for the AfD, which would win with 28% of the votes, while the SPD is expected to win with 27% in the polls. In the final stretch of the campaign, the gap between the two has narrowed, so experts do not rule out a last-minute turnaround.
The gap between the other parties is considerable. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) could win 14 percent, while the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is aiming for 13 percent. Scholz’s government partners are fighting for a seat in parliament, where there is a minimum threshold of 5 percent. The Greens, with 4.5 percent of the vote, will probably win thanks to a direct mandate in the state capital Potsdam. The liberal FDP is in the polls in the “Other” category and has not had any representation in the state parliament for some time.
“The SPD is the only party that has a foothold in the state and is running a president who knows how to appeal to voters,” says Peter Matuschek, a political scientist and researcher at the Forsa polling institute, over the phone. “The question will be whether it can hold its own or even improve and finish first. It would not be the first last-minute sprint for the SPD. In the last election they were given 20% and ended up winning with 26%,” he adds.
Woidke and the SPD can tell a success story in Brandenburg. Unlike the other states of communist Germany, which saw many residents leave after reunification, the land The city’s population has remained stable. More and more young people are moving from Berlin in search of more affordable prices and contact with nature – forests cover more than a third of the area – or are moving to study at its universities (Potsdam, Viadrina in Frankfurt an der Oder, Technical University in Cottbus).
The Social Democratic recipe for the campaign has been to personalize it as much as possible. The SPD is Woidke, the chairman who has been at the helm for 10 years. land and who travels to cities and towns to speak to voters. This is not Scholz, the chancellor who is permanently at odds with his government partners and whose management does not convince Germans, especially those in the east. It is about turning the page on Thuringia and Saxony, where the socialists collapsed, with 6.1% and 7.3% of the votes, respectively. That is why Scholz has not been seen in the campaign, nor any of his ministers. Woidke has avoided them; he knows that his best bet is to distance himself from the toxic politics of Berlin.
