Less than two weeks before the European elections, nervousness runs through the main German political parties, which can barely hide it in their appearances. The heated debate that took place last Monday on German public television, ARD, in which the six main parties participated, including the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), made this concern clear.
Screams, boos, constant interruptions and people talking at the same time due to the impotence of the presenter, unable to put order… This show draws attention in a country like Germany, with a long tradition of debates, where the main political leaders appear on television on election night to analyze the result jointly and respectfully. But it was to be expected that a gathering entitled The battle for Europe: will the populists win? It was not going to be exactly peaceful at a time when Europe is preparing for a new turn to the right. Germany fears the effect this could have on the regional elections in September in three federal states in the east of the country – Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony – and next year on the federal elections.
Despite the scandals that relentlessly plague the AfD, the party maintains a voting intention of 17% in the latest polls, in second place, behind the Christian Democrats CDU/CSU of Ursula von der Leyen (30%). . However, he faces isolation in Europe after being expelled from the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament in reaction to an interview by AfD’s leading candidate, Maximilian Krah, in which he stated that not all members of the Adolf Hitler’s SS were criminals.
AfD criticism of Meloni
AfD deputy Leif-Erik Holm acknowledged in the television debate that the party had not had “a good week,” as its leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla had previously noted. In his opinion, it was an “unfortunate” statement, he said to boos from the public and ridicule from other politicians. Meanwhile, Chrupalla took advantage of his appearance at the party’s regional conference in Saxony to attack the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, for “defending more migration and more weapons for Ukraine.” “This melonization It will not happen with us,” he declared. “For us, German interests always come first.”
Against this backdrop, the Social Democrats – led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – and their partners in the coalition government – environmentalists and liberals – have been trying for weeks to convince the population to reject extremist forces. Furthermore, the presidents of the country’s most important companies decided to take a step forward and ask their employees to avoid voting for populist forces that could destroy the country’s well-being.
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But first of all, leaders must first convince the population to go to the polls. In the latest survey carried out by the Infratest dimap demographic institute for ARD, 48% of Germans declared they had little or no interest in the European elections. It is difficult for parties to reach the electorate. The war in Ukraine is far away for many citizens, who in their meetings with politicians prefer to ask about problems on public transportation in their city or in the hospital or schools. “These elections will be decided by mobilization,” said the Minister of Economy, the Green Robert Habeck.
Mobilize the electorate
“Many citizens feel that their governments do not listen to them and that their interests are not taken into account in government decisions. We know that there are two especially common reactions: stopping going to the polls or voting for parties at the extremes of the political spectrum as a protest,” explains political scientist Miriam Hartlapp-Zugehör, from the Free University of Berlin.
Nicolai von Ondarza, an expert on European politics at the SWP Science and Policy Foundation, sees it the same way. “The AfD vote is a protest vote, but not only from people who have completely turned their backs on the current Government, but also on other alternatives such as the CDU,” he explains about a discontent that, he analyzes, comes from the years of the AfD government. Angela Merkel.
Speeches such as those of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who in his recent visit to Germany did not stop warning against fanaticism and the possibility that Europe could die, try to make the electorate react. “It seems an exaggeration to say that Europe is dying. “I don’t think that is what is at risk in these elections,” Von Ondarza declares. In his opinion, the real danger is that “far-right parties become normalized and change the EU in terms of its values or its orientation towards an illiberal level. In other words, the EU will not die or break up, but will undergo a fundamental change.”
For the expert, the big question is whether centrist parties will open up to Meloni, which would imply the participation of a far-right party in the central commitments of the EU, which until now has always been ruled out. But he denies that this means that the cordon sanitaire against AfD in Germany will be broken in the future, as more and more voices predict, although they will have to deal with a party that will maintain its central core of voters, “especially the parts of the electorate that are reported almost exclusively through alternative media and social networks.”
16 year old voters
In this context of social networks, the youth vote also comes into play. For the first time, people aged 16 and over will be able to vote. “It will be interesting to see how intensely they participate in the elections,” he says. “AfD is also running a relatively successful campaign to win over young men,” he says. “AfD is trying to do the same in eastern Germany. Win over voters frustrated by too much political correctness, gender and climate protection.” And he remembers that the controversial AfD candidate Maximilian Krah is one of the most successful German politicians on TikTok, a network in which he has a very active and young audience who frequently shares his posts. “This also explains why the AfD remains relatively high in the polls despite the scandals.”
The hate messages and disinformation campaigns that spread like wildfire on social networks are seen as one of the causes of the increase in violence against politicians in Germany. The Greens are the party that suffered the most attacks in 2023. “It is clear that some of the disinformation campaigns focus on us,” explains the vice president of the Greens, Pegah Edalatian, in a telephone conversation after the latest attacks against German politicians in election campaign. “In Germany, a lot of false information is being spread through social networks and Telegram,” she points out. “We are the largest green party in the world. We are in the Government, we are effective. Those who have problems with an open democratic society focus on us,” she adds.
The European elections thus mark the beginning of an electoral year in Germany. “This sequence of the European elections and then the three elections in the three federal states, where the AfD has a lot of support, will send a signal for federal politics and will undoubtedly increase the unrest in this Government, which is already very divided,” Von predicts. Ondarza. “The most important signal will be in the face of next year’s federal elections.”
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