This Tuesday, the Parliament of Georgia rejected the veto imposed on May 18 by the country’s president, Salomé Zurabishvili, on the so-called bill on foreign agents, which copies one of the Kremlin’s main repressive tools against dissent. With this measure, Georgia takes another step towards Russia’s orbit and distances itself from the West. Parliament has ignored the warnings of the European Union (the country is a candidate for accession), NATO and the protests of hundreds of thousands of Georgians who have been demonstrating for weeks against a law similar to the one the Russian president , Vladimir Putin, has applied since 2012 to control NGOs and the opposition. The protests outside the institution have not stopped even during the vote, despite the fact that the result was predictable: the party in power, Georgian Dream, with 84 deputies in a chamber of 150 seats, rejected Zurabishvili’s veto. .
The result was 84 votes in favor. Only four opponents voted against, the rest left the room during a debate that lasted seven hours. The rule will be returned to the president for her to promulgate and, if she does not do so, the president of Parliament will sign the bill and it will come into force in the coming days. From that moment on, any person or organization that receives more than 20% of its funds from abroad will not only have to detail its accounts, but may be forced to reveal its sources and contacts, including the media and NGOs. The battle between Government and opposition has only just begun.
Salomé Zurabishvili, who had anticipated the rejection of her veto, presented this Monday a programmatic letter for the opposition parties to sign, in order to run together in the legislative elections on October 26. The document, signed by the majority of the parties, has as its first and main point the “revocation of laws detrimental to the country’s European direction”, in particular that of “Transparency of Foreign Influence”, which is the official name of the foreign agents law.
The Netherlands analyst Jelger Groeneveld, a specialist in the Caucasus, indicates through an exchange of messages that the front formed by Zurabishvili has options to defeat Georgian Dream: “Although the president’s platform will not be the only one. There will also be another in the opposition. Because there are people who do not want to vote for either Georgian Dream, the party in power, or its predecessor, the National Unity Movement (MUN). [partido mayoritario dentro de una fragmentada oposición]”.
However, Groeneveld believes that the Government can exercise clientelistic control over part of this country of 3.7 million inhabitants. “Especially, about the officials. But not only about them. Because in Georgia there are many government-linked organizations that have ‘ghost’ employees: although they receive a salary, they are not part of the active workforce.” However, the expert believes that this time there may be a change in Georgia: “Something similar to what happened in 2012 may happen, when the National Unity Movement fell out of favor in the face of a very united opposition.”
Researcher Max Fras, from the London School of Economics Consulting, also estimates, via telephone, that Georgian Dream could face a serious challenge in the October elections, despite the fact that the front formed by Salomé Zurabishvili has not managed to unite all opposition formations. “The For Georgia party, of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, has not signed the president’s letter, it has been left out of the platform. But that’s okay. Because voters need to have different options. “Binary options in Georgian politics are harmful.”
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In Georgia, opposition politicians do not usually direct their criticism towards the prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, but rather at whom they consider the real strongman in the shadows, the founder and honorary president of Georgian Dream, the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, the richest tycoon in the country. country. In turn, the best-known opposition figure is former president Mikhail Saakashvili, who governed between 2004 and 2013 and has been imprisoned since 2021 for two cases of abuse of power that he denies. His party, the United National Movement (MNU), is the one with the greatest weight within the platform championed by the president. But many voters associate his time in power with cases of corruption. For this reason, analyst Max Fras considers that there are more than two options to vote on October 26. “If not, Georgians would once again see these elections as a fight between [el oligarca] Ivanishvili and former Prime Minister Saakashvili. And that would not serve the opposition,” he concludes.
MNU MP Tina Bokuchava indicates by email that “Ivanishvili’s Government” is trying to “deprive the Georgian people of their European future.” She claims that Georgia’s European aspirations can only be safeguarded through “regime change” and notes that it is “essential that opposition leaders come together.”
Russian weakness in the Caucasus
Georgia will not only decide its future in October, but will tip the balance a little more in the delicate geopolitical balance of the South Caucasus, where Russia has lost much of its influence since Azerbaijan, with its champion Turkey behind, launched successful offensives against the enclave of Nagorno Karabakh that controlled Armenia, an ally of Russia, until the end of 2023. And the Kremlin, harassed by the war in Ukraine, has been forced to withdraw a large part of its troops from the Caucasus, including some detachments present in two Georgian territories that controls de facto: South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Georgian Dream plays both sides with Russia and the European Union. Despite its founder’s ties to Moscow, Georgians are committed to Europe. A 2023 survey by the National Democratic Institute indicates that only 11% of the population believes that the country should stop integration with the community bloc to strengthen its ties with Russia.
Although diplomatic relations with Moscow have been formally severed since the 2008 war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Georgian party has restored flights and trade with Russia since 2022 and has positioned itself slightly on Moscow’s side in the invasion of Ukraine. accuse the United States of promoting a second front in its territory.
Paradoxically, Georgian Dream claims at the same time that its objective is accession to the EU in 2030 and the recovery of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze insisted this week, at least to the public, that these are his objectives.
The double game of the Georgian authorities is also tightening the rope with Brussels. Last week, Kobakhidze accused the European Neighborhood Commissioner, Olivér Várhelyi, of having threatened him by telephone with suffering the same fate as the Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, who was shot on May 15.
“My telephone conversation was taken out of context,” Várhelyi responded in a statement. “I saw it necessary to draw the attention of the Prime Minister – Kobakhidze – to the importance of not further exacerbating an already fragile situation with the adoption of the law, which could lead to further polarization and possible uncontrolled situations on the streets of Tbilisi” .
Vladimir Putin, however, took the opportunity to charge again against Europe, which he accuses of causing unrest in his backyard, such as Ukraine and Georgia. “There are many commissioners [en Bruselas]; “They change constantly and bring with them all kinds of snow storms.”
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