After two and a half years of paralysis and political blockade, the Lebanese Parliament on Thursday elected General Joseph Aoun as the new president of the country, which in the last five years has experienced several crises of various kinds. Aoun, considered the favorite candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia, was elected in the second round with the support of 99 deputies of the 128 legislative chamber. The main challenges for the general, who until now held the position of Supreme of the Lebanese Army, will be to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah and to appoint a new prime minister capable of negotiating with the community. internationally the aid necessary to rebuild the country after last autumn’s war.
“A new phase in Lebanon’s history begins today,” Aoun declared at the inauguration ceremony for his new position. The general, a 61-year-old independent politician, has placed the “building” of the nation and its army as his main priority, and has indicated that with his election there is no “loser.” His appointment came in the second vote, since in the first he obtained the vote of 71 deputies, far from the required majority. During a break of a couple of hours between both votes, Aoun met with representatives of the Shiite parties Amal and Hezbollah, and finally managed to obtain their support, so his appointment has been forged from a consensus greater than expected . In accordance with the confessional distribution of power, the position of president must be occupied by a Christian, and that of prime minister, a Sunni Muslim, and that of president of Parliament, a Shiite Muslim.
Lebanon, a small country with more than five million inhabitants, has experienced a serious economic crisis following the collapse of its banking system in 2019. Over the following years, the Lebanese lira lost 98% of its value, tripling the percentage of the population below the poverty line until it reaches almost half of the population. A powerful explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020, and above all, the war between Hezbollah and Israel last year further aggravated the difficulties of the Lebanese.
According to analyst Michael Young, of the think tank Carnegie, Aoun’s election is a reflection of the change in political balances in the region that has occurred in recent months, and which has resulted in a notable erosion of Iran’s influence. To the weakening of Hezbollah as a result of the war with Israel, we must add the fall of the Assad clan regime in Syria, allies of Tehran for more than four decades. “The defeat of Hezbollah in the recent conflict with Israel has left a vacuum, and it seems that the Americans […] “They believe that only the army can, and should, fill that void,” Young wrote in an article. The previous president, Michel Aoun – no relation to the new president – was an ally of Hezbollah.
Analyst Gassan Saoud agrees in giving decisive weight to foreign support for Aoun. “Without the support of the US and Saudi Arabia, Aoun would not have gotten even 15 votes,” he explained on the Lebanese television channel Al Mayadeen. The fact that a weakened Iran, also suffering from a severe economic crisis, cannot afford the reconstruction of areas destroyed by Israeli bombing helps explain Aoun’s choice. In the twelve previous votes held over a period of more than two and a half years, no candidate had achieved the quorum necessary.
The issue that will focus the new president’s energies in the coming days will be to enforce the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, signed on November 27. The pact, which has not prevented numerous Israeli bombings in the country of cedars, established a period of 60 days for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory of southern Lebanon that they have occupied since their offensive on October 1. In exchange, Hezbollah promised to withdraw its troops present south of the Litani River, located 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, a strip that would become exclusively controlled by the Lebanese army.
With just over two weeks left until the end of the truce, on January 26, Israel has barely moved its troops deployed in Lebanese territory, which raises suspicions regarding its real intention to comply with the agreement. Although the US envoy Amos Hochstein recently assured that Israel will withdraw from all occupied territory, in Lebanon it is suspected that the Jewish Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could be waiting for the arrival of his ally Donald Trump to the White House the next day. January 20 to break the agreement or renegotiate it under more favorable conditions
