Polling and electoral strategy specialist Frank Luntz does not know who will win the close United States presidential elections on November 5, but he does know why they are so close. “Two-thirds of Americans do not believe their country cares about them. A third does not feel interested in the future of their country. That causes this anger, this disappointment and this polarization that is sinking our democratic process right now. “It is a disastrous situation – and it is unsustainable,” he warns.
And he does it with reason. Luntz (Connecticut, 1962) is one of the most famous and most respected electoral strategists in the United States. His four-decade career in political communication, in which he has been a pioneer in the use of instant response focus groups, is attested to by the historical and electoral memories that fill his palatial apartment in Washington, where the interview with a small group of foreign journalists: paintings about man’s arrival on the Moon, a mannequin in a police uniform, handkerchiefs, baseball cards, commemorative card games, thank you cards and cushions embroidered with the bald eagle, the American emblem.
On the eve of the elections, the expert warns, the situation is alarming: “We do not trust our electoral system, we do not trust our institutions, we do not trust our leaders.” The result is that “the entire process, everything we knew about politics, is no longer true.” And a candidate who lies systematically like the Republican Donald Trump, not only is not harmed by his behavior, but he can win on the 5th. Luntz cites a poll according to which 25% of Republicans believe that Trump ” “He should do everything he can to assume his position as the legitimate president.”
“That’s why I’m worried about where we’re going in the future, there’s too high a percentage of Americans who, even now, will say, ‘It’s our presidency.’ We have the right to take it, and Trump should do it,” he points out. After the September debate in Philadelphia between Harris and Trump, this electoral strategy expert predicted that the Democrat would win the election. “Trump was so bad that I thought there was no way he would win.” But now he no longer dares to predict. “75 million people saw that, he was pathetic, and yet he can win,” he points out, in disbelief. “In all the key states they are less than two points away. The margin of error is four points. A forecast cannot be given. Whoever gives it is an idiot, because it is impossible to know who will win.”
Ask.If there is no trust in the system, and what we thought we knew is no longer true, does anything still matter in the electoral process?
Answer. The appearance of truth matters, but the truth itself does not matter. It’s a horrible thing to say, but Donald Trump is not telling the truth and it doesn’t seem to affect his voting intention. It doesn’t matter if what he says is true or not. If I believed the data I received at face value, I would point to him as the winner, because he has been rising in the polls in recent days and the numbers are moving in his favor. His supporters no longer lie about their voting intention (as could have happened in the 2016 or 2020 elections). His voters want to proclaim that they vote for him, they want to shout it, they feel proud of it. Everywhere, signs supporting Kamala are modest in size. Trump’s are as big as an apartment.
But there are other things I don’t know. For example, the youth vote. Traditionally, the youngest people do not participate, they do not get involved in politics. But this time, young women are dying to vote, and to vote for Harris.
Q. Has Harris made mistakes?
R. During the first 30, 45 days of her campaign, it can be said that she was the best possible candidate. The best in modern US history, better even than Barack Obama. He captivated the country. And in the last twenty days, maybe thirty, it has been horrendous. They asked him what he would do differently from Joe Biden and he couldn’t say anything. You have to give voters something beyond the first triumphant presentation, a reason to keep listening. And in her case, Harris hasn’t told them what voters want to know, or what they need to know. As a candidate, Trump has the responsibility of holding a second debate. She has the responsibility to answer specific questions about what she would do, but she doesn’t, and that upsets voters. What I don’t understand is that he is saying truly extremist things and it is not harming him at all.
Q.What happened there?
R. More people now believe that Trump’s presidency was good, more so than Joe Biden’s presidency. We have reviewed the work he did and we no longer think that he was not up to par. A majority believe he did a decent job. And Harris’ biggest mistake is assuming things that aren’t necessarily correct about people’s perceptions. I don’t think we understand the extent to which so many Americans are truly frustrated with things as they are. So much so that they are willing to vote for a guy who has been tried and found guilty, because Harris reminds them too much of what is there now. That’s your problem. Harris had the opportunity to be different. It was different. It changed everything. But 45 days later, she has ended up becoming the status quo candidate.
Q.Should I insult more, like Trump?
R. He should distance himself more (from Biden).
Q.What is the outlook in the states that count in these elections, the seven pivotal states that hold the key to reaching the 270 electoral votes necessary to win?
R. For Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan the key will be the vote of the unions, traditionally Democrats. For the first time, grassroots activists are telling their leaders that they are not going to listen to them, that they are going to vote for Trump. Union members love Trump because they like his language, they appreciate that he is so brazen. They want someone who says what they think, who means what they say, and they believe that person is Trump. It has nothing to do with the fact that Harris is a woman. The proof is that union members were already turning towards Trump when Biden was still the candidate. So you can’t say it’s a gender issue. There are unions that are still mostly Democratic, those of civil servants, those of teachers. But the others, no. People who work with their hands love Trump.
In Georgia and North Carolina, it’s all about young African Americans. Until now, among young people perhaps 3% of women voted Republican, 10% of men. That gave the Republicans 6 or 7% of the African-American vote. But now it is not 10%, it is 25%.
In Nevada and Arizona you have to look at the Latino vote. It is more up in the air than ever, for two reasons. They have always voted Democrat but never received anything in return. And they are moving toward a free-market ideology, distancing themselves from African Americans as a voting group. They are changing their entire vote. And even though Trump sounds so horrible in his comments about immigrants, they hear him and believe he’s not talking about them. Those who are here say: “I am here legally, close the door, the people who are entering are bad and create a bad name for me.”
What is different about the Latino vote compared to that of young African Americans is that the latter vote for Trump, not the Republican Party. Latinos, more for the Republican Party, of which Trump turns out to be the leader. If he were a less bellicose, less controversial candidate, the Latino vote would lean even more in favor of the GOP. I think that Trump is a factor that limits the turnaround of the Latino electorate, but he has managed to capture the attention of these voters, and they are forgiving him for some of the things he says.
Q.Two weeks before the elections, are there still undecided people who could change the tables at the last moment?
R. There are no real undecided people left. There are people who lean towards one or the other, but who have not yet made their definitive opinion. Of these, those who lean toward Trump may wonder: Is he going to seek revenge? Are you going to be looking at the past all the time? Are you crazy? Is it too old? He’s someone they don’t like, they agree with him about inflation and think he’ll be better at border control, but they don’t like his personality. In the case of those who lean towards Harris, perhaps they see her as too weather-beaten. Can I trust her? Are you telling me what you really think, or just what you think I want to hear? The doubts about it are about its authenticity. Then there are also people who don’t like either of them, and can’t decide which is better. The undecided probably won’t vote for anyone. So in the end, the result will be a matter of mobilization, of who comes out to vote.
Q.In this last stretch of the campaign, Harris has chosen to emphasize the support she receives from moderate Republicans, those of “Trump never.”
R. Every vote she gets from them is a vote she takes away from Trump, a vote that would have gone to Republicans, so it makes sense for her to try to get those numbers up among Republicans. But those of “Trump never” will not necessarily lean towards it. There are also people who will vote on purpose with a null ballot. Or blank.
Q.The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, is coming to his aid for Trump. What impact could that have?
R. I don’t think Musk is going to have a significant effect. Who can have it is the singer Taylor Swift. Asked who will have more influence on their vote, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or Taylor Swift, 26% of Americans said Swift. None among those over 65, but among young people, 35% answered that. If you’re under 34, what Swift says impacts you. Why Trump messed with her is what I don’t understand about him. There is something in his head that causes him to be a horrible candidate. He says things that are inappropriate, that offend people and distance them. He’s doing it on purpose. I wonder if he really wants to be president, because no one in their right mind would say the things he’s saying in the way he’s saying.
Q.What will happen from day 5?
R. I think we will not have results on November 5th, 6th, or 7th. And I think people are going to get more and more angry, and more and more frustrated, and the Trump campaign is going to say that the election was stolen from them.
Q.Is it possible that, after the elections, there will be an opportunity to recover unity?
R. If Harris wins, the same thing will happen as when Barack Obama won in 2008, there will be a honeymoon stage. But let’s see what he does during that stage. She has sometimes alluded to reparations: compensation for the damage caused in the era of slavery. 70% of African Americans support them and 75% of white Americans reject them. If you touch that topic, this country explodes.