It is like a parenthesis, like a return to real life after the political truce declared by Emmanuel Macron just before the Olympic Games. More than two weeks ago, France opened the sporting event with a caretaker government and the most fractured political landscape ever remembered. The legislative elections brought forward by the president gave victory to the left-wing coalition New Popular Front on July 7. But they also left the country in limbo, with a parliament divided into three blocs and no majority to govern. The enthusiasm and feeling of unity left by the Olympic Games now threaten to be left behind. Pressure is growing for the Elysée to appoint a prime minister as soon as possible. The next few weeks will be decisive.
Legally, there is no set deadline in France for the president to appoint a prime minister. But time is of the essence. In addition to pressure from the opposition, the country must approve a budget for 2025 and present it to the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, by the first Tuesday in October at the latest. It must also present a plan, by September 20, explaining how it intends to correct the course of its public finances, after Brussels opened a file on Paris for excessive deficit. European rules set the deficit limit at 3% of gross domestic product (GDP). France, the second largest economy in the EU, had a deficit of 5.5% of GDP at the end of 2023.
The Elysée has not yet announced a date for when a successor to Gabriel Attal, the outgoing prime minister, might be announced. The press is speculating that the replacement could be announced this week or next, just before the start of the Paralympic Games, which will take place in Paris from August 28 to September 8. But nothing is certain. In a television interview before the sporting event, Macron had said that he would not choose a head of government “until mid-August” and ruled out naming the left-wing coalition candidate Lucie Castets, who was proposed after weeks of intense and heated debate, to the post.
The New Popular Front (NFP) – which brings together La France Insoumise [LFI, hermanada con Podemos]socialists, communists and ecologists—won 182 of the 577 deputies in the National Assembly in the second round of the legislative elections on July 7. Although it did not achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats, it became the largest parliamentary group, thus claiming the right to appoint a prime minister and form a new executive. Tradition dictates this, argued the alliance, which prevailed over the Macronists (168 deputies) and the far right of Marine Le Pen (143).
The presidential camp, however, argues that what the NFP is asking for has only happened when there are clear majorities in the hemicycle. In the interview he gave before the Games, Macron insisted that no one had won the elections and that the only possible majority would be a coalition between several parties of what he calls “the republican arc”, thus excluding de facto to the LFI party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
A hemicycle divided into three blocks
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Article 8 of the French Constitution provides that the president must appoint a prime minister and that his government must not be overthrown by a vote of no confidence. The current situation is a real puzzle. The Assembly, after the elections, was divided into three ideological blocs: the left, the centre-right and the far right, which is already thinking about the presidential elections scheduled for 2027. No group has an absolute majority, which makes it difficult to form an executive. There are three ways out of the crisis: a minority government condemned to fragility, a coalition or paralysis.
To stay in power, the weakened Macronists would have to ally themselves with the right and the moderate left, which would imply that the latter bloc would break with the NFP. This scenario is not on the table for the moment despite the multiple disagreements between the LFI and the Socialist Party. The alliance resumed its fight with the head of state on Monday. Through a letter sent to deputies and senators, the candidate Lucie Castets, who currently works as director of finances for Paris City Hall, revealed her roadmap for taking over as prime minister.
In the letter, the 37-year-old civil servant – until recently unknown to a large majority of French people – acknowledges the need to “persuade beyond” the coalition in order to “build parliamentary majorities”. In other words: find compromises with the other groups in the hemicycle – except for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – in order not to fall with the first motion of censure.
Several candidates
Other candidates are being considered for the post. On the right, the names of Xavier Bertrand, the current conservative president of the Hauts-de-France region who served as a minister during the presidencies of Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, are also being mentioned. Michel Barnier, former European commissioner and the EU’s chief negotiator for Brexit, is also being mentioned. Another possibility would be Gérard Larcher, the president of the Senate.
Among the possible candidates for the post is also Bernard Cazeneuve, who was part of the Socialist François Hollande’s government. In 2022, Cazeneuve left the Socialist Party after his party’s agreement with LFI to create an alliance with environmentalists and communists, which ended up imploding.
How long will France continue with a caretaker government? “It won’t last forever,” promised Prisca Thevenot, the spokeswoman for the outgoing government, on Monday, without giving any clues as to when. “A coalition is not built in a few days,” she added, in response to criticism from the left, which accuses Macron of not taking into account the vote of the French people in an election that he himself called.
During the Olympics, Macron did not comment on the future of the country and limited himself to writing messages related to the event on the social network X. On Monday, the day after the closing ceremony, he met at the Elysée with the public and private stakeholders of the biggest sporting event on the planet. “This spirit of the Games shows us a very simple thing. […]“When we are all together, we are unbeatable,” he said.
During the 17 days of the Games, the president traveled between the presidential residence at the Fort de Brégançon in the south and Paris, where he congratulated the French champions and took the opportunity to take photos with them. The Games provoked a certain wave of enthusiasm in a deeply fractured state, tired of the recent political upheavals. In a message in X On August 5, Macron compared the success of the event to the positive feelings that swept through France in 1998, following the country’s victory at the men’s World Cup. Then-President Jacques Chirac experienced a surge in popularity.
Citizen support for the current president, according to an Elabe survey published in The Echos The French nationalist poll showed a modest level of confidence in him on 1 August. Only 27% of French people are confident that he will be able to deal effectively with the country’s problems, two points more than at the beginning of July. Twenty-six years later, the situation may no longer be the same. “How much longer can the unity of our divided country last?” the radio station asked on Monday. France Inter.
There is nothing on Macron’s agenda that suggests an appointment. On Thursday he will take part in the 80th anniversary of the Allied landing in Provence alongside heads of state and government from several African countries. On August 25 he will return to Paris to commemorate the liberation of the capital from Nazi rule during World War II. And as he announced this weekend, a meeting will be organised on September 14. parade on the Champs Elysees to celebrate French athletes. With or without a government? The question, for now, remains unanswered.
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