The hangover in France after the victory of Marine Le Pen’s far-right in the European elections and the unexpected announcement of early elections has not yet dissipated. The stupor is total at a decision by President Emmanuel Macron that no one expected, not even a good part of those around him. But there is no time to lose, and the movements have already begun for an express campaign of just three weeks, and on which the big question hangs: will the ultra formation finally win this time and after repeated failed attempts?
The tactical movements began this Monday with discussions about electoral alliances, especially intense discussions in a left that must decide whether to run together or separately. The elections will be held in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7. The 577 deputies that make up the National Assembly will be elected, each in a district. June 16 is the deadline to present candidates. The Macronist bloc is the one with the most deputies in the current chamber, 250, although it does not reach an absolute majority. Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has 88.
The dilemma of the French left is whether to present itself again with a joint brand as in 2022 was the New Progressive Environmental and Social Union (NUPES). The NUPES united all the sensibilities of the left, from pro-European social democrats, Atlanticists and those in favor of the free market economy to Eurosceptics, against NATO and in favor of ending capitalism. The positions on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the personalism of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La Francia Insumisa (LFI), Podemos’ sister party and hegemonic these years on the left, have poisoned the relationship with the Socialist Party.
“Now, the union,” Mélenchon wrote on the social network X. “Urgent, strong, clear,” he adds. Others speak of a “popular front”, to which the unions should join with the ambition of building a Wall left-wing against the RN. In a statement, LFI defends lowering the retirement age from 64 to 60 years and “the rejection of the escalation of war in Ukraine.” These are some of the points that may pose problems for the PS, which now feels strong after the candidate on its list for the European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann, came in third place, ahead of LFI. “Not with Mélenchon,” the mayor of Paris, socialist Anne Hidalgo, told Morning Express this Monday.
The Macronists seek another type of union: what for years has been known in France as the republican front. That is, the union of the space that goes from the PS to the moderate right of Los Republicanos to stop the extreme right. I would exclude those of Mélenchon and those of Le Pen. The idea is that the constituencies where the RN candidate can win, the republicans to defeat him. “I trust the people,” said Macron during a visit, planned in advance, to Oradour-sur-Glane, a town martyred by Nazi Germany at the end of World War II.
The president trusts in his ability to convince. He also believes that the legislative elections are different from the European ones, since many voters use these elections to the European Parliament to cast a sanction vote against the Government. The division of the left can favor Macronist candidates to qualify for the second round against a candidate from the RN and, to avoid the latter’s victory, obtain the support of left-wing voters. But this confidence is not unanimous among those around the president. According to BFM-TV, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tried to persuade him on Sunday to accept his resignation instead of dissolving the National Assembly. He was not successful.
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Three scenarios are emerging after the elections. The first, a new Macronist majority, or in coalition with the moderate right, that would allow him to continue governing. Another scenario is that of a National Assembly without any dominant party and, therefore, ungovernable, unless government coalitions are built, something far from French political culture. The third scenario is that of a chamber in which the RN was the first force and the future prime minister came out of this group. Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s right-hand man and successful candidate in the European elections, 28 years old and with a brilliant career, is the natural candidate for the position.
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