France is torn between a minority left-wing government, a coalition or paralysis

“How do you expect to govern a country in which there are 246 varieties of cheese?” said General de Gaulle, who understood almost everything about France and the unique character of its citizens. There is debate about whether the number of cheeses is really 246, 258 or 1,200, recalls veteran journalist Franz-Olivier Giesbert in his trilogy on the Fifth Republic. But one thing has remained in force since the time of the general: the idea that, due to its social and ideological diversity, and its unpredictable character, this is a difficult nation to govern.

Since last Sunday, France has entered a higher phase of complexity, a parliamentary Rubik’s cube that no one knows how or who will be able to solve.

The early legislative elections have produced a parliament divided into three ideological blocs: left, centre-right and far-right. And a myriad of parties. Four on the left, from radical leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise to the more moderate social democrats. Three in the centre. Plus a multitude of small parties. There are not as many of them as De Gaulle’s cheeses, but there are enough and diverse ones for some to draw up the most apocalyptic scenarios.

“We are in a situation of absolute gridlock, the institutions are completely blocked, and no one sees a way out of the crisis,” said the famous political commentator on radio and television Jean-Michel Apathie this weekend. Referring to President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to unexpectedly dissolve the National Assembly on June 9 and call the elections that have just been held, he added: “At the top of the State we have someone who I doubt will be able to manage all the consequences of the act he has committed.”

Apathie was speaking in Couthures-sur-Garonne, a town of 400 inhabitants on the banks of the Garonne River where Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party won the election. Every year around this time, the International Journalism Festival of the French newspaper The World The festival brings together journalists, politicians, academics and members of civil society. Paris is more than 600 kilometres away, but the parliamentary deadlock, with no absolute majority, an interim government and the Olympic Games just around the corner, are the topics of conversation. “The Republic is tottering,” the influential journalist declared in front of hundreds of citizens who attended his talk at the festival.

“It may take time, but we will succeed,” says David Djaïz, an essayist and former advisor to the Elysée Palace. “France is learning pluralism and polyphony.”

Djaïz, far from Apathie’s sensationalism, believes that there is a way out of the paralysis. First stage: try to form a government with a personality from the bloc with the most deputies, the left. If that fails, second stage: a “republican union” that includes the socialists as well as the moderate right. And third, if the coalition does not work: a technical government for at least one year, since legislative elections cannot be called again until June 2025.

“But be careful: this must not be a mere arrangement against the RN,” Djaïz said. “There must be a real government programme, a real will to act.”

A week after the second round, little progress has been made, and the timetable does not leave much room. The resignation of the outgoing Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, and his government is scheduled to take effect on Tuesday, although he will continue to manage the day-to-day running of the administration while awaiting a successor. On 18 July the new Assembly will be formed and the legislature will begin. On 26 July the Olympic Games will open.

Unprecedented situation

The left-wing New Popular Front forms the leading bloc with 182 deputies and claims the right to appoint a prime minister. The name could be known in the next few hours or days. Macron and the centre parties came second with 168. The RN came third with 143. Neither party is close to the absolute majority of 289 seats. It is an unprecedented situation that leaves three options: a minority government condemned to fragility, a coalition, or paralysis.

“Yes, it is unprecedented and far from our political culture,” says Yaël Braun-Pivet, currently a member of parliament for the Macronist centre and president of the National Assembly dissolved in June, in a video interview. “But we are having discussions, a dialogue. We will have to invent something new.”

The former president of the Assembly argues that “what the French have expressed is that they did not want power to be exercised from a single camp.” “What they want,” she adds, “is rapprochement, listening to each other, commitment.”

In response to the Left’s demand that the prime minister be appointed because it is the bloc with the most MPs, Braun-Pivet replies: “It is not accurate to speak of left-wing dominance.” The MP argues that if the small centre-right UDI party and the traditional right-wing Republicans are added to the central bloc, they would form a larger bloc than the Left, although still far from a majority.

Braun-Pivet’s other argument is that the left-wing bloc wants to govern in a minority, without seeking an agreement with the centrists, and applying its programme to the letter. “But it turns out that what the people have expressed is not an adhesion to their ideas.” The MP maintains: “The French do not want either the extreme right or the extreme left in power.”

When speaking of the “extreme left,” the Macronists point to Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, until now the dominant component of the left. But excluding the insubordinate For the Macronists to be able to reach an agreement with the more moderate left would imply breaking up the New Popular Front. That is why the left has been outraged by the Letter to the Frenchwhich Macron published this week, where the president suggested this idea. And in this field, it has caused even more outrage when he said: “No one has won.”

“We have a president of the Republic who lost the parliamentary elections and at no point did he say: ‘I take note of the results and I admit defeat’,” laments the Green MEP David Cormand in Couthures-sur-Garonne. According to Cormand, Macron’s reaction is causing a deadlock, because according to the French Constitution it is the head of state who appoints the prime minister: “What to do with a president who has lost, who does not say that he has lost and who reserves the right to appoint whomever he wants?”

An added complication: in France there is no vote of confidence for the prime minister and the government. Simply, the prime minister appointed by the head of state governs, unless a majority of the Assembly overthrows him. “If there is a minority left-wing government,” predicts the commentator Apathie, “there will immediately be a vote of no confidence.” And a grand coalition? “There won’t be one,” he says. Because he believes it would be “artificial,” in his opinion, and would leave the far right as the opposition. “To do this,” he concludes, “they should directly give the RN the keys to power.”

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