The military presence of Western missions on the ground in Ukraine is getting closer. France is finalizing a plan to send instructors to the country invaded by Russia, in coalition with several NATO allies, according to several diplomatic sources. The Government of Emmanuel Macron, the first to raise the possibility last February, intends to send an advance party of several dozen specialists to explore the terrain and training possibilities and, later, several hundred soldiers to train Ukrainian troops in tasks demining, training for the use and repair of Western weapons and the formation of a new motorized brigade, say sources familiar with the negotiation. The French initiative would mean the demolition of another of the great taboos of military support for kyiv.
Lithuania has already declared that it is ready to participate and Estonia is open to doing so, while the United Kingdom is “receptive” to the French idea, European sources say. But Macron’s plan, although he makes it clear that the soldiers will not enter combat or approach the front, and is based on bilateral agreements with kyiv that do not involve the rest of the allies, can unleash tensions within the Atlantic Alliance and clash with the red lines of the United States and Germany. Both countries, after great pressure from other partners, such as France and Poland, as well as Ukraine, have partially lifted restrictions on the use of the weapons they supply to kyiv and to allow attacking military objectives on Russian territory in a limited manner and against the lines. who are besieging the city of Kharkiv, in the east of the country, where the situation is extremely difficult and the Kremlin has opened another front.
The French plan to form a coalition of instructors could be announced next week, coinciding with the possible visit of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to France, to participate in the commemoration events of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, diplomatic sources point out. France’s initiative has flown over the meeting of NATO foreign ministers this Thursday and Friday in Prague, focused on support for Ukraine.
Russia has warned that, like weapons, the Western training mission will be considered a military objective. Allied sources emphasize, however, that, as is the case with the missions that each member of the Alliance sends abroad bilaterally, an attack against these soldiers would not fall within NATO’s mutual assistance umbrella, which states that an attack on one ally is an attack against all, and therefore would not drag the Alliance into war.
There are already NATO soldiers in Ukraine. They are dedicated to intelligence work and control of Western weapons that have been sent to kyiv. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Lithuania have, between them, nearly a hundred special forces stationed in their embassies in the country that has resisted the Russian aggressor for more than two years, as revealed by the confidential papers of the Pentagon leaks in April 2023. There are also retired military personnel who train Ukrainian troops in NATO doctrine, as volunteers or hired as officials by the kyiv Government. But none of these formulas is an established, formal and quantifiable mission like the one France now proposes.
Existential threat
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For Camille Grand, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the establishment of the training mission of several Western countries in Ukraine is a question of consistency with the idea that Europe faces an “existential” threat. “The formalization and symbolization of the mission is important, and Macron’s idea of not setting red lines, but giving space to help Ukrainians as best as possible is good,” says Grand, who held a senior position in NATO. “Also to show the Russians that we are serious,” she adds.
The French president had already opened the door to the idea in February when he stated that sending Western troops to Ukraine could not be ruled out. But his words, which some framed within the strategic ambiguity of not ruling out anything so as not to give clues to the enemy, raised a cloud of concern and criticism from other allies. Furthermore, last July the EU Foreign Service raised the possibility of deploying a European mission of instructors “when circumstances allow,” as Morning Express reported.
Ukraine has asked its allies to send specialists to the country. “We are not asking for troops from our European partners, but for military instructors,” said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in an interview with this newspaper in March. Some 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have received training in allied countries, such as Poland – where there is also a large EU mission -, the United Kingdom or Spain. But kyiv assures that training its soldiers on Ukrainian soil would allow more soldiers to follow the courses – now, with the lack of rotation, very few can travel to follow training abroad – and would adapt the training to the terrain.
At the beginning of the week, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrski, assured that the French mission is very advanced. The idea is to install training centers in western Ukraine, in points well protected by air defense systems.
“The deployment to Ukraine of a limited number of military instructors from NATO member countries is becoming inevitable,” considers Ian Lesser, advisor to the German Marshall Fund. “As will sending new and better additional military equipment and lifting more restrictions on the use of weapons to allow kyiv to attack targets in Russia,” he says. “It will be a way to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capacity,” adds the expert.
The training mission that France plans to lead in Ukraine is limited, but some voices worry that it is only the first step in sending soldiers who end up getting involved in combat tasks.
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