Hyperbole is accumulating in France before the legislative elections that begin this Sunday. It is one more sign of the vertigo in the face of a call that no one saw coming and that leads France to terra incognitaWhether the National Rally (RN) wins and a cohabitation government is formed (with Emmanuel Macron as president and the far right as prime minister) or whether there is a stalemate without clear majorities, France will never be the same again.
Macron justified the dissolution of the National Assembly as necessary to “clarify” the political situation following the overwhelming victory of Marine Le Pen’s RN in the European elections on June 9. For Bernard Sananès, director of the Elabe polling institute, the result of the legislative elections, and the future of the country itself, revolve around one question: “Will the desire for change be stronger than the fear of change?”
Above all because “change” means, for the first time in the history of France, that a far-right party can reach the Government through democratic means after the second round, on July 7. The possibility is so high that it has even managed to get the parties of a hitherto deeply divided left to ally themselves.
The New Popular Front coalition presents itself as a “dam” to RN and its candidate, Jordan Bardella, becomes the next prime minister of France. But with a voting intention of around 29% of the 49.3 million French registered to vote, the NFP remains in the polls behind the 35% of RN and its allies, although well ahead of the alliance of parties Macronists, who are around 19.5%.
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“There is a strong desire for change in the country, which has been captured by RN in particular and, more recently, by the left as well,” explains Sananès. “For the moment, the desire for change is stronger than the fear of change.” In this context, “an absolute majority for RN is not impossible,” he adds, although he believes that the “most likely scenario” after the second round on July 7 is that of a “solid relative majority” for the extreme right.
Bardella says he will only govern if he obtains an absolute majority, arguing that only then will he be able to implement his programme and not be a mere “collaborator” of Macron. But analysts agree that public opinion would not understand Marine Le Pen’s party refusing to form a government if for the second time in a month it wins a clear victory at the polls and exceeds 250 seats, even if it falls short of the 289 of the absolute majority.
Towards a sulphurous cohabitation
This result could lead to a shared government between the centrist Macron and the far-right Bardella. Cohabitation is not new in France. There were already two during the presidency of the socialist François Mitterrand, between 1986 and 1988 with Jacques Chirac as prime minister and between 1993 and 1995 with Édouard Balladur. And a third with the tables turned: the conservative Chirac as president and the socialist Lionel Jospin as head of government, between 1997 and 2002.
If there is anyone who knows the rules of the cohabitation game, it is Jacques Attali. The essayist, advisor and mentor to presidents, from Mitterrand to François Hollande and Macron, explains that he not only witnessed the first Government of this type, but that he helped “invent” the rules that leave, for example, in the hands of the president issues of international politics and security. Rules that have served since then to regulate a never comfortable relationship between leaders of opposing parties. The problem is that they are not enshrined in the Constitution, so compliance with them depends on the will of the parties. And with an RN who would arrive at the Elysée with a national program and an international vision diametrically opposed to that of the pro-European Macron, this cohabitation promises brutal and frequent clashes.
The pulse has already begun. Le Pen reminded Macron this week that his status as head of the Armies is only “honorary” and that the one who has the real power is the prime minister, because he controls the budget. The outgoing head of government, Gabriel Attal, accused RN of endangering the country’s security by publicly questioning the chain of command.
“The president can say what he wants, for example, on European policy,” says Attali. “But if the executive reduces, as RN says it wants to do, French contributions to the EU, which would be a casus belli “The President cannot prevent this from happening, and he cannot prevent the possible suspension of aid to Ukraine.”
And although Macron would still have “counterweights”, his capacity for action would be “very limited”, says constitutional lawyer Jean-Philippe Derosier, because he is a “defeated” president to whom the French will have told, through the ballot box, that although they cannot oust him from the Elysée, they no longer trust him to govern. “Legally, he does not have many ways to intervene and, politically, he will not have the means to impose himself either”, he summarises. Although Macron has assured that he will serve out his mandate until 2027, the pressure for him to resign in that context will be very strong, experts agree.
Uncharted territory
However, the outlook could become much more uncertain if no bloc wins a clear majority on July 7. And there is no possibility of a repeat election: the French Constitution does not allow a new dissolution of parliament until a year has passed.
France has never had a technical government like Italy, and in view of the strong confrontation during the campaign and in the last legislative period, an alliance of parties like the coalition between social democrats, greens and liberals that governs Germany does not seem likely either. Even the last Macronist government, with a relative majority, was something unprecedented in the Fifth Republic and, if it survived, it was only because the other forces failed to form an alliance to push through a motion of censure.
Given the uncertainty, the possibility of a “neither-neither” government is even being considered, that is, neither with the extreme right of RN, nor with the radical left of France Insoumise. Would a Government with allied intermediate forces be possible? “France is the country that invented the left-right split and overcoming that split is very, very difficult,” warns Derosier.
Despite the uncertainty in the country, the Fifth Republic orchestrated by General Charles de Gaulle 66 years ago is not in danger, the constitutionalist reassures. “We are facing a political crisis, but not a crisis of the regime to the point where there is doubt as to whether it will survive,” he assures. Whatever happens in these legislative elections, Derosier says he does not doubt “for a second” that the institutions “will resist.” But the times ahead, everyone admits, are not going to be easy.
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