Half a dozen well-known Democrats are being mentioned as possible replacements for President Joe Biden if the intention of some in the party to force an honorable withdrawal of the candidate were to bear fruit. Although the motto for now is to bury the succession debate, the Democratic National Committee could theoretically promote another candidate at the Chicago convention in August: damage control in this period depends on whether the widespread panic over Biden’s cognitive failures in the debate with Donald Trump subsides or leads to a surprise. As a common denominator, almost all the names that are mentioned as possible replacements for the 81-year-old reelection candidate were already mentioned in 2020, which indicates the limited, or at least lazy, capacity for renewal of the party.
Among the obvious candidates (Vice President Kamala Harris first, but also Michelle Obama, more by popular acclaim than by real probability), the logical ones (governors like Gavin Newson, JB Pritzker or Gretchen Whitmer) and the hidden ones (some young mayors, like the one in Boston, still green), the eventual succession of Biden would also mark the beginning of the end of the gerontocracy, which also consumes the Republican Party (Donald Trump is 78 years old). All the possible replacements are at least one generation younger than the president.
The process of choosing another candidate would be extraordinarily arduous and the president has assured this Friday that he is still in the breach. If he decided to resign, he would not be able to designate his successor – which reduces Harris’ chances – and the choice would fall to the Democratic National Committee. The bets are smoking. A recent survey by the weekly Political revealed that 21% of Democratic voters were betting on Harris as their candidate for 2028. Another 10% chose Newsom, governor of California, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, while an overwhelming 41% said they did not know which would be the best option four years ahead.
Kamala Harris, Vice President
Harris, 59, could be considered the most logical choice due to her proximity to Biden if her approval ratings were not at rock bottom. According to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the former California attorney general has a disapproval rating of 49.4%. Despite the aforementioned survey of Politicalonly 34% thought that a Harris candidacy would “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to win the elections in 2028, while 57% said that a victory would be “not very likely” or “not at all likely.”
Four years in the vice presidency, dedicated to issues such as the defense of reproductive health, but with little visibility and impact—it is difficult to find a headline dedicated to her in the media—have burned Harris’ cartridge. One of her main critics, the columnist of the Washington Post Kathleen Parker even asked at the beginning of the month that Hillary Clinton replace her in the Democratic tandem due to the vice president’s “competence, or lack thereof.” “Putting Harris at the helm does not improve the candidacy much, if at all,” the portal wrote on Friday. The Hill.
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Harris has been the country’s first female vice president; She is also the first woman of South Asian descent and the second black woman to be elected to the Senate. Like the rest of her possible successors, she plays the card of telegenicity in her favor, and against her, several public mistakes at the beginning of her time in the White House and her detractors. They call it ultra-progressivism. Harris opted on Thursday for a white lie to define the president’s performance in the debate: speaking to CNN, she said that Biden had a “slow start” but a “strong finish.”
Gavin Newsom, Governor of California
At 56, he has been one of Biden’s staunchest allies in the 2024 election. Newsom was also Biden’s main squire in the press room after the debate on Thursday, amid a swarm of cameras. The controversial California governor, equally loved and hated and who survived a noisy recall attempt in 2021, told MSNBC that the “panic” over Biden’s performance was “unnecessary” and that “you can’t turn your back on him for a reason.” [mala] performance”.
Former mayor of San Francisco, perhaps too liberal for the rest of the country—firmly defends all causes cultural: abortion, LGBT+ rights and gun control—has been trying for months to build a national profile for 2028, but the black hole created by the debate could encourage him to jump into the field much sooner. Last year, as concerns about Biden’s age mounted, Republicans publicly accused him of running a “shadow” campaign that would allow him to enter the race if the president dropped out. Some Democrats quietly agreed.
During the Trump presidency, Newson declared California a leader of “the resistance.” His direct confrontation with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a heated debate on Fox News last year showed that he doesn’t mind getting dirty. His coreligionists believe his biggest obstacle is not his liberalism, but California’s problems: a homelessness crisis, a multimillion-dollar deficit and a cost of living that voters partially blame on the governor.
Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro, 51, retained the governorship of Pennsylvania’s swing state in the 2022 midterm elections, overcoming Biden’s slim 2020 margins there and defeating his Trump-backed Republican challenger by more than 14 points. More than 20 years in the state Capitol and six years as Pennsylvania’s attorney general have earned him fame and support, including winning a multimillion-dollar settlement from several pharmaceutical groups over their role in the opioid crisis. He was re-elected in 2020 with more votes than any other politician in the history of Pennsylvania, a state that Biden and Trump are openly fighting over.
The shadow areas of his career are due, for environmental groups, to his support for the shale gas industry, vital in the State’s economy, and among the Democrats of the progressive faction, to his fervent support for Israel. Shapiro, a practicing Jew, has condemned growing anti-Semitism on campuses during the wave of protests in solidarity with Gaza. According to an April poll, he has 54% support in the state, including 29% of registered Republicans.
Michelle Obama, former first lady
The 60-year-old former first lady has stayed away from politics since Barack Obama handed over the presidency to Donald Trump in January 2017. For reasons more personal than political – the couple is focused on their production company – Michelle Obama refuses to make the leap into national politics despite her undeniable popularity, which she still retains (to a much greater extent than another former Democratic first lady, Hillary Clinton, who already tried to reach the presidency in 2016, without luck against Trump). Hillary Clinton’s precedent reduces the likelihood of a candidacy by Obama’s wife. The former first lady, political gossips maintain, also does not want to publicly campaign for Biden because of how the family treated Kathleen Buhle, a close friend of hers, when she divorced Hunter Biden, the president’s troubled son. Her reluctance to return to the limelight has not prevented many Democrats from betting on her as a presidential candidate.
JB Pritzker, Governor of Illinois
Pritzker, 59, would probably be the easiest candidate at this point because he has the fortune to launch a White House campaign, as he is the heir to the family that owns a major hotel chain. “The host of the convention [Nacional Demócrata], Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, is the obvious choice. He doesn’t have the background of Vice President Kamala Harris or the governor of California, but as a billionaire he could finance himself overnight and buy the nomination, thus avoiding a civil war in the middle of the convention,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox explained on Friday. Unlike Pritzker, the rest of the names being considered, from Newsom to Shapiro or even Maryland Governor Wes Moore, lack his financial capacity.
Pritzker is as controversial as Newsom. As governor, he signed a law last year that completely eliminated cash bail, leaving it up to judges to decide whether to release or jail a suspect. His family has invested millions of dollars in transgender causes, while he signed education bills with a gender identity curriculum for five-year-olds, and hormone blockers for ages eight and up.
Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan
The 52-year-old governor of another swing state — best known for shutting down the state’s economy during the pandemic in open defiance of the Trump administration — has quickly risen through the ranks of well-known Democratic leaders. Last year, she created a nationwide caucus to position herself for 2028. Like Harris, Newsom and Pritzker, Whitmer has not expressed interest in stepping up and maintained her support for Biden after the debate.
In October 2020, she made headlines when the FBI uncovered a plot by a group of Trump supporters to kidnap her. The politician attributed the plan to the Republican’s incendiary rhetoric. A former senator, in the 2022 midterm elections she helped offset the Democrats’ defeat by beating her Republican rival by 11 points. Her victory allowed her party to regain the Michigan Congress for the first time in decades.
A progressive, she has passed laws on gun control and clean energy. She has also approved popular tax cuts for small businesses and the passive classes. Whitmer has already hinted at her ambitions for the White House, urging her voters to 2028. According to the website The Hillthe ideal ticket in an emergency would be Whitmer and Shapiro, because Biden is currently behind Trump in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, two of the seven decisive swing states.
Progressive Democrats out of the game
The defeat this week in New York of the progressive Jamal Bowmaan, defender of the Palestinian cause, at the hands of a moderate Democrat financed by lobbies The pro-Israeli movement may mark the swansong of the party’s left-wing faction. Hailed at the end of the last decade as green shoots in the face of an ageing establishmentthe members of the so-called Squad, led by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, no longer seem to constitute a replacement for regenerating and rejuvenating the party. Bowman’s defeat is the first for a member of the Squad since the formation of this informal anti-Trump movement in 2018. Other members of the group are Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, both of Arab origin and highly critical of Biden’s support for Israel. The division within the Democrats over the Gaza war has already claimed its first victim and sapped the momentum of the progressives.
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