Since the last US election, Latinos have had the second-largest growth of any racial and ethnic group in the United States (after Asians), and today they total 36 million potential voters for the 2024 elections. The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research center that conducts public opinion surveys, has tried to give an overview of Latino voters, the policies that matter most to them, the parties they lean towards and where they are. These five keys are essential to understanding a voter that both Democrats and Republicans are fighting over to reach the White House.
Latinos, go vote
According to data from the National Museum of the American Latino, a record number of Latinos—16.5 million—voted in 2020, up from 12.7 million in 2016. Overall, more than half of eligible Latino voters (30 million) cast ballots in 2020, up from 48% in 2016. In 2024, 36 million Latinos are projected to be eligible to vote, representing 14.7% of all eligible voters.
The center highlights that the largest increases in Hispanic voter percentage occurred in specific groups: women, young people (who now represent 31% of Latinos), Hispanics born in the United States and those of Mexican origin.
Hispanic eligible voters are generally younger than the total eligible voting population, with only 33% being 50 years or older, compared to 48% of all Americans. Additionally, 21% of Hispanics have a college degree or higher, lower than the 33% of the total electorate.
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Who have you voted for so far?
Historically, Latino voters have leaned toward Democratic candidates, although the margin of support has narrowed over time. In the 2020 election, 61% of Latino voters supported Joe Biden, while 36% backed Donald Trump, a narrower margin compared to the 2016 election between Hillary Clinton and Trump.
According to the Pew Research Center’s early July 2024 poll, Latino voters were split in their support for the presidential candidates, with about 36% supporting both Biden and Trump. Notably, 24% of Latino voters supported third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., significantly higher than the 15% support he had among American voters overall. Kennedy, unable to consolidate his presidential race against the other two candidates, opted this week to drop out and throw his support behind the Republican.
These numbers, however, may have changed dramatically since Biden dropped out of the race, leaving his spot to Kamala Harris. In terms of party preferences, Latino voters have a more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party (44%) than the Republican Party (32%). Despite this, neither party enjoys majority support among Latino voters. Demographic differences also play a role: women and older Latino voters are more likely to view the Democratic Party favorably than men and younger voters.
Latino Republicans
In 2020, there was a notable shift of Hispanic voters toward the Republican Party. However, the political attitudes of Hispanics in the United States have been complex and changing over the past 40 years, and their opinions do not always coincide with those of non-Latinos within the same party, according to recent Pew Research Center surveys.
In particular, Latino Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have significantly different views on issues like guns and immigration compared to non-Latino Republicans. For example, 54% of Latino Republicans consider protecting gun rights more important than controlling gun ownership, compared to 83% of non-Latino Republicans who feel the same. On immigration, Latino Republicans are less likely to prioritize border security and deportations, but more likely to support legalizing undocumented immigrants who came to the country as children.
Where are the Latino voters?
California is home to a significant portion of Hispanic eligible voters, accounting for 25% of the total Hispanic electorate as of 2022. Other states with large Hispanic populations include Texas, Florida, New York, and Arizona, which together account for about 65% of all Hispanic eligible voters.
New Mexico stands out as the state with the highest percentage of Latino eligible voters, representing 45% of the electorate. In California and Texas, Hispanics make up approximately one-third of the voting population. The next highest proportion of Latino eligible voters are Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Colorado and New Jersey.
Just over half (53%) of Latinos in the United States were eligible to vote in 2022. However, this percentage varies significantly by state. For example, in New Mexico, 66% of Hispanics are eligible to vote, while Tennessee and Maryland have the lowest percentages, at 36% and 39%, respectively. Nationally, Latinos are less likely to be eligible to vote compared to the general population (53% vs. 72%), due in part to the higher share of younger and non-citizen populations.
Importance of climate change
The majority of U.S. Latinos view climate change as a significant concern, with 81% considering it a personal priority or an important issue. This contrasts with 67% of non-Hispanics who view it as a major concern, and only 29% of whom consider it a top priority. Latinos also perceive climate change to have a more immediate impact on their local communities, with 71% believing it affects their area at least to some extent, versus 54% of non-Hispanics. This greater concern is reflected in their greater support for climate policies and their willingness to make personal lifestyle changes to address environmental issues.
Latinos are also more likely than non-Hispanics to report serious local environmental problems, such as air pollution and drinking water safety. They also express greater dissatisfaction with federal government efforts to combat climate change, with 67% saying more action is needed. This sense of urgency is especially pronounced among Latino Democrats and recent immigrants, who are more likely to attribute climate change to human activities and support aggressive environmental protection measures.
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