The clearest consensus among European leaders is that there is a rush. Rush to agree who will lead the institutions of the European Union during the next term. The reason for this haste is that the leaders do not want to add more noise to a very volatile situation in Europe and the world, with the rise of populism and the extreme right and a rarefied political climate.
The heads of State and Government of the 27 Member States seek to agree this Monday, informally, on the puzzle for senior officials. The favorites: the German Ursula von der Leyen (popular) to repeat as head of the European Commission; the Portuguese Antonio Costa (social democrat) for the European Council; the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas (liberal), as high representative for Foreign Policy and Security; and Roberta Metsola (popular), to continue one more term at the head of the European Parliament. This distribution would respect political balances — the European People’s Party was the most voted force in the European elections on June 9; and the social democrats, the second—gender and regional.
But although the package gathers great support, as is often said in this type of negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. The socialist Costa has the endorsement of the Government and the Portuguese Prime Minister of the European People’s Party, Luís Montenegro. But other voices in the conservative ranks have expressed doubts this Monday about his appointment. They allege issues about the court case for corruption that affects his closest collaborators and that led to his resignation as prime minister. “We need to clarify the legal context,” remarked the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, this Monday. To try to adjust the balance, Tusk and the other EPP negotiator, the Greek Kyriakos Mitsotakis, have met before the leaders’ dinner with the social democratic negotiators, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and Pedro Sánchez, at the initiative of the president of the Spanish government.
Plays and orders
The moves and arguments begin: the popular party has proposed presiding over the Council for half of the legislature (two and a half years) and for a socialist to head it for the other half. This could be done without forcing the rule, because the treaties indicate that the terms of the president of the Council are two and a half years and can be renewed once. However, the socialists are not willing to give in, the same sources point out. All those who have held the position so far (the Belgian liberals Herman von Rompuy and Charles Michel, and the Polish conservative Donald Tusk) have done so for the two permitted periods, that is, five consecutive years.
“It would be important for this to be decided quickly and expeditiously, because we are living in difficult times and it is important to know what the future holds for Europe,” said Chancellor Scholz. The Danish social democrat Mette Frederiksen, who sounded strong to preside over the Council and who, in reality, is the popular favorite due to her tougher positions on defense and migration, has tried to remove herself from the equation this Monday. “I hope that we reach an agreement soon, because with everything that is happening in the world, it is necessary to hurry up and be a beacon of stability,” he noted upon his arrival at the leaders’ meeting in Brussels, where he also stressed that Von der Leyen has done “a good job” this term.
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The results of the European elections have confirmed the advance of the extreme right and have left the Franco-German tandem, the traditional driving force of the EU, shaken. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the second political force in these elections, which have dealt a blow to Scholz’s government coalition and the Social Democrats, who have experienced their worst historical result. In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right (National Rally) was the first force in an overwhelming victory that led the president, Emmanuel Macron, to call early legislative elections. These elections have caused great concern in Brussels due to the possibility of elevating the ultras in the EU’s second largest economy.
Leaders will take into account that the person chosen to preside over the European Commission must be ratified in the European Parliament by the majority of MEPs (361 out of 720). In Brussels there is speculation that the conservatives cannot ensure that Von der Leyen has the bloc vote of his own colleagues. Although the leader of the Spanish PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has assured this Monday that the support at the meeting of the European conservatives has been “unanimous” and “without fissures”, the popular ones of France (The Republicans) and Slovenia have already announced that they will not support the German company. This means the escape of 11 parliamentarians. This is a very low figure, but the EPP itself expects that, as the vote is secret, there will be more defections.
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