The European Union will pay the invoice of the reconstruction of the Russian War against Ukraine. The large -scale invasion launched by the Kremlin in 2022 has dynamited the European security architecture and placed to the old continent before an existential threat. However, although the formula to end the conflict is crucial for the future of Europe, the return to the White House of Donald Trump, which has promised to end hostilities as soon as possible, has increased fear among Europeans to That the tycoon cook directly with the Russian Vladimir Putin the pact to end the war and relegate from the dialogue table to Ukraine and Europe, as giving diplomatic sources. Europe, as President Ukraine alert, Volodimir Zelenski, in Davos “is not guaranteed” a seat in the negotiation.
In Brussels, at the same time, the suspicion to the Europeans are growing as the only guarantors of the fulfillment of the future agreement. The EU could put an anchor with its future participation – although still diffuse – in the security guarantees of the future agreement. For example, through a display of troops on the ground. But vehicular that scheme if Washington does not get involved in depth would be enormously difficult, they emphasize both the aforementioned diplomatic sources and some analysts.
The risk is for the United States to design an unknown agreement for kyiv and to contemplate Europe only as a financier – in three years of war, the EU has already mobilized 124,000 million euros – of the enormous reconstruction that comes, and as guarantor on the Land of that pact, as recognized by a high European source. This points that the union has few levers to press to get a real hole with Washington. “That scheme would be a catastrophe for the security of Europe, not to mention a huge geopolitical defeat,” adds the source, which calls for anonymity to comment on a matter of great sensitivity.
The EU has proposed to raise its geopolitical role, but is losing ground in front of Washington and Beijing. Also in the Middle East, where it has been marginalized in regards to the Israel War against Gaza – where it will also be a financier of the reconstruction, but it has lacked influence. It also struggles to become a hole with the new authorities of Syria, as other powerful geopolitical actors move with that same goal.
In fact, the Foreign Ministers of the 27 EU Member States are expected on Monday to advance in a meeting in Brussels to temporarily suspend and gradually some sanctions to the Arab country. These include those of the banking sector, air transport and the movement of private assets to allow the funds to return to the country after the fall of the Bachar the Asad regime and thus boost the return of refugees, according to several diplomatic sources.
The case of Ukraine, the east border of the union against Russian threat and candidate for community membership, is more acute. Trump’s criticisms to Europe and the military spending of NATO members, as well as the republican allergy to multilateral organizations or pacts, increase the fear that a scenario materializes in which the EU was left out of the scheme Decision. A suspicion on which observers and analysts such as Wolfang Munchau, director of Eurointelligence.com also warn. “This is the price that the EU pays for becoming so dependent on the US, both in defense and military,” he says in a recent analysis.
“It is crucial that Europeans participate in the future formula to direct In Brussels. That is the great current debate: how the future agreement will be guaranteed.
Peace forces
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has already opted to send troops on the ground and form a peace force. Last December, that was a great angle in the three -band conversation that he had with Trump and Zelenski in Paris. The United Kingdom has also given signs that it could be involved in that contingent that, however, remains enormously controversial and that Moscow may also be given to respect the agreements, as an analysis of the story shows – does not accept.
The question is also the robustness of that formula. Zelenski – which in Davos aimed at the figure of about 200,000 soldiers for that peace force, although experts and analysts speak rather 40,000 – has already warned that security guarantees only European would not be sufficient deterrence.
“The strongest guarantee is NATO: Membership for Western Ukraine and display of alliance troops – American, including – near the contact line,” explains Simon. “A second option would be the membership of NATO and European troops deployed in Ukraine; And a third, NATO’s membership, but without deployment, ”adds the expert, which affects that all this is strategically optimal, but politically uncomitable.
The idea that there are European soldiers on the ground, channeled through the alliance – that is, under the command of the United States – is also on the table. That is what is moving behind the scenes, they recognize European sources. But the most urgent thing is to be part of the negotiation that will also involve a “support” to respect the interests of Ukraine, which are, in the last case, also those of the Europeans, the sources follow.
A scheme with little European prominence in the design of the agreement is also the one that Russia wishes. The Kremlin has always despised the EU, has tried to crouch any bind of unity and divide the block – which adds more than 450 million inhabitants, compared to the little more than 140 million of the Euroasy country – and has always sought bilateral conversations . It is Moscow’s position, in which a few days ago Nikolai Patrushev, advisor to Putin. “The negotiations on Ukraine must take place between Russia and the US, without the participation of other Western countries. We have nothing to argue with London or Brussels, ”he said in an interview with the Russian publication Pravda.
Since his investiture, Trump has not closed any conversation with the EU members about the war, although he has spoken of China’s role – which has deepened in its vicinity with Russia since the large -scale invasion – and the possibility that Press Moscow to stop the conflict (although for now other actors have approached Beijing, which has not moved a finger). The new White House tenant seems to look for an understanding with the Asian giant, but has also shown that its position will be to tighten the nuts to the Kremlin with the economy, with more sanctions and trying to lower the price of oil; Something that could damage finance already in intensive care of Moscow.
The Republican tycoon said Friday that Ukraine is willing to end hostilities and sit at the dialogue table, but depended on Putin. Because, although it gives contradictory signs, the truth is that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist positions. The Russian autocrat, however, is playing their cards. “We believe in the statements of the current president [de EE UU] About his willingness to work together. We are always willing to negotiate, ”Putin said on Saturday. “It would be better if we met, taking into account today’s realities, to speak calmly,” he said. Since Trump’s victory in the presidential elections last November, Kremlin has hinted several times that he would want to meet with the Republican, with whom he has maintained a good historical harmony.
Aware of the risk that kyiv and the twenty -seven are the cooked agreement, Zelenski remarked on Saturday that these negotiations should be held between the US, Ukraine, Russia and, also, the EU. “It is impossible to exclude Ukraine from any negotiation platform, otherwise it will not have real, but political results,” he said. “And those results had nothing to do with security or the end of the war.”
In the power domes of the EU member states, conversations about future negotiations have accelerated, a taboo until very recently. Also on the formulas to weave security guarantees that protect the future agreement. The bet, explains a diplomatic source aware of these debates, is to try to seek the complicity of the United States, while trying to reinforce kyiv with more military support to reach the dialogue table in a more position of more force.
In mid -December, at a meeting organized by the new NATO general secretary, Mark Rutte, with Zelenski, the leaders of Germany, Olaf Scholz; Italy, Giorgia Meloni; Poland, Andrej doubt; Denmark, Mette Frederiksen; Netherlands, Dick Schoof; and the Foreign Ministers of France, Jean-Noël Barrot; and from the United Kingdom, David Lammy; as well as the presidents of the Commission and the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, analyzed the possibilities of increasing that support and put the foundations of the European position before the future negotiation. The wheel moves.
