The French dam has contained the wave of the far right and the European Union is breathing a sigh of relief. In Brussels and in many capitals, the decisive second round of the general elections in France on Sunday was watched with concern and a certain pessimism. But the worst scenario for the European project, a majority for Marine Le Pen’s far-right and Eurosceptic National Rally (RN) in the second largest economy in the Union, a country essential for the bloc’s progress, has not come to pass, according to the first data.
“In Paris, enthusiasm; in Moscow, disappointment; in kyiv, relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted on social media shortly after the first polls were released. The conservative politician from the European People’s Party family also managed, together with a liberal and social coalition, to stop and defeat the far right in Poland at the end of last year. Tusk thus celebrated the containment of the extremists of Le Pen, whose party has had links with Russia. Regarding the good results of the left – united in the New Popular Front – many in the EPP equate it with the far right of RN with the far left of La France Insoumise (LFI, leader of that bloc), although their approach to democracy and social rights are radically different. “Long live the Republic,” said the former Italian Prime Minister and European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, a social democrat, on social media.
The unrest, however, has not completely evaporated: the votes, with a record turnout, have left a fragmented Parliament in France, with the left united in the New Popular Front as the leading force. Next in line is the liberal party of President Emmanuel Macron and in third place, the ultras of RN. Shortly after the results were known, the Prime Minister, the centrist Gabriel Attal, announced that he would resign.
“We will have to see how a majority is built and what kind of governability we see,” says a veteran diplomat, who speaks on condition of anonymity in order to speak freely. Moreover, it is clear to everyone that millions of French people have opted for the far-right RN, an anti-immigration, xenophobic party that has Europhobic positions and will most likely join the European Patriots, the new political family – pro-birth, extremist and with affinities to the Kremlin – promoted by Viktor Orbán in the European Parliament. From there, they will try to promote an agenda that will help Le Pen’s party advance between now and the presidential elections, scheduled for 2027.
“The curveball has been avoided, but we will see next time,” said a senior EU source. Nevertheless, calm is beginning to arrive in Brussels, where there was concern about the possible cohabitation of President Macron with a far-right prime minister, a post that Le Pen’s successor, Jordan Bardella, a MEP who has hardly been seen in the EU capital or in Strasbourg, the seat of the European Parliament, was seeking.
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“Tonight, my French friends and comrades have shown that it is possible to stop the far right by uniting the left,” declared Iratxe García Pérez, president of the Socialists and Democrats MEPs group, on social media. “The results are clear: by placing the New Popular Front at the head of the seats in the National Assembly, the French people mobilised to defend the Republic from the dangers that awaited it,” she added. “This evening a new page opens in our parliamentary history,” said the liberal Valerie Hayer, president of the Renew group in the European Parliament. “A new page where we will have to work differently, where our convergences must overcome our differences to offer a way forward for the country,” added Hayer, who gave as an example the alliances between the different groups and political families that are being forged in the European Parliament.
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