The rise of the far right in this Sunday’s vote turns 9-J into an electoral shock similar to or even greater than the referendum in France that in 2005 condemned the draft European Constitution to death. Now as then, the temptation in Brussels is to pretend that this is a minor setback, without tangible consequences for the future of the European Union. Now as then, the overcoming of the state of denial will give way to stupor at the fact that openly anti-European parties such as the French National Rally and Alternative for Germany (AfD) have become the first and second most voted forces in their respective countries that They are, to make matters worse, the heart that sets the rhythm of the Union.
The EU’s Franco-German engine has no spare. If Paris or Berlin fall into the hands of governments opposed to European integration, the EU will be paralyzed at best or mortally wounded at worst.
The markets, which are not inclined to go through any of the phases of mourning, have already given their first shock this Monday, confirming that the French president, Emmanuel Macron – forced to call legislative elections after the victory of Marine Le Pen in the Europeans—may become a lame duck for the rest of his term (until 2027). And that the tripartite of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, already weakened and subject to deep divisions, comes out even worse from elections in which the three government parties (socialists, greens and liberals) have been placed below the AfD and they add 31% of votes, just one point more than the conservative opposition of CDU/CSU.
The question about Macron’s future and the fragility of Scholz’s Government go poorly with the ambition that the EU requires to face a legislature called to be one of a great transformation prior to a new expansion of the club. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who in the coming days will present his long-awaited report on the future of the club, assures that Europe needs “a radical change” if it wants to preserve its economic and social model on the current world stage. With the wicks that the 9-J polls point to, the leap forward suggested by the Italian not only seems unfeasible, but many governments will consider the need to adjust downwards the degree of European integration.
The only common denominator of all ultra parties, beyond the longing for a happy Arcadia that never existed, is the will to lock each country in on itself and cut any ties of solidarity with the rest. Wilders promises Dutch taxpayers that not a single euro of their taxes will be used to finance highways or high-speed railways in Spain. Orbán guarantees his people that not a single refugee will cross the Hungarian borders to alleviate the burden of the countries on the front line of arrival. Le Pen dazzles her farmers with a renationalization of agricultural policy that in practice means the end of European subsidies and the closure of the French market to Spanish, Italian, Portuguese or Greek products.
Some European sources console themselves by dreaming that these parties, if they come to power, will become accustomed in Brussels to the negotiation, compromise and solidarity that keeps the European Union standing every day. But his pedigree indicates otherwise. They have been trying to reach an agreement among themselves for years and after each spectacular ultra summit—the last one in Madrid, organized with Vox—they only manage to repeat hackneyed proclamations about the defense of the traditional family or the value of the Christian heritage, but without being able to reach an agreement. no specific program because their proposals contradict each other.
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Therefore, unlike the United States, Brazil or Argentina, the European Union cannot afford the victory of an ultra wave. Life is on it.
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