Another State in the air? Harris leads Trump in baseline Iowa poll
The electoral battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has focused on seven states that anyone who has followed the elections closely can already recite by heart: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. This Saturday, however, the surprise has emerged in Iowa with a change of trend that no one had seen coming in a State where Trump’s victory in the presidential elections was taken for granted.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows Democrat Harris leading Republican Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before the election. Robert F. Kennedy, who has abandoned his campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, would get 3% of the vote. Less than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% are unsure, and 2% do not want to say who they voted for. The survey has a margin of error of 3.4 points
Iowa has six votes in the Electoral College, the same as Nevada, but fewer than the rest of the decisive states. Neither candidate has campaigned in Iowa since the January caucuses, the kickoff of the primary. Barack Obama was the last Democratic candidate to win there, in 2012.
The September survey by the same outlet gave Trump a four-point lead over Harris and another conducted in June gave him an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the Democratic candidate at the time.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the media. “He has clearly jumped into a leadership position.” It has been the independent and older voters who have caused the reversal. Harris leads Trump among non-party women voters by 28 points, 57% to 29%, while the Republican candidate is ahead by 10 points among independent men, 47% to 37%, according to the survey. Likewise, voters over 65 favor Harris. But older women support it by a margin of more than 63% to 28%, while older men favor it by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
