Ecuador seeks to turn the helm to get it out of the long night it finds itself in. Shaken by uncontrolled violence, the weakness of institutions, unemployment, the specter of migration and a fiscal debt of 5 billion dollars at the end of this year, this country of 17 million inhabitants will go to the polls this Sunday with the illusion of finding a new nation project that will rescue it from this desolate panorama. Daniel Noboa, 35, heir to a banana empire, leads the latest polls—albeit by a narrow margin—against Luisa González, 45, the candidate of former President Rafael Correa’s party. The final result is uncertain.
Noboa, a Harvard graduate, third generation owner of a family multinational, has presented himself as the president of employment, willing to reduce taxes and encourage foreign investment. In the first round, in August, González won by nine points (33% compared to 24), but since the second campaign began, Noboa began to gain several heads of advantage. The young politician made himself known in a debate between candidates in which he appeared firm and calm, regardless of the attacks between the other speakers. Furthermore, he was seen as a safe option in a system that seems rotten, especially after the campaign murder of another of the contenders, Fernando Villavicencio, a journalist who had denounced the infiltration of drug trafficking in Ecuadorian institutions.
Daniel is not the first Noboa who wants to take control of the country. His father, Álvaro, ran up to five times without success – on one occasion she was 2% away from victory. His father was a much more populist politician who gave away money and computers at his rallies. He called himself “the Messiah of the poor.” He was a fierce enemy of Correa, the controversial left-wing president now entangled in legal cases that during his term lifted millions of Ecuadorians out of poverty. His son’s style is much more sober, less agitating. More modern if you like. He has not confronted Correism head-on, which has removed him from the polarization in which Ecuadorians have been immersed for almost 20 years.
Whoever is chosen, he will receive a country shaken by drug cartels, which in the last five years have acquired extraordinary power. Until recently, Ecuador was a nation that lived in relative tranquility, nestled between Peru and Colombia, the two largest coca producers in the world. Somehow, he had managed to avoid the entry of criminal groups. However, the dollarization of its economy and its extensive coastline on the Pacific made it an attractive territory for Mexican mafias, which have allied themselves with local gangs. These gangs exercise their power from prisons, a place where anarchy reigns right now. If the rate of homicides in these months continues, Ecuador will break its crime record since records began and will officially become one of the most dangerous countries on the planet.
The candidates have reduced their public events to a minimum. When they appeared, they were wearing bulletproof vests and were surrounded by a large security device. Neither of them has been very specific when it comes to offering their recipes for stopping the violence. Noboa talks about using drones and satellites to track criminals and locking up the most dangerous prisoners on barges in the middle of the sea. González proposes militarizing prisons, customs and ports, all of which are currently co-opted by drug trafficking, and carrying out a thorough purge of the security forces. Analysts consider that these proposals are insufficient in the face of such an acute problem.
Nothing has better illustrated the corruption and cynicism of the Ecuadorian authorities than the results of the investigation into the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio. The police initially arrested seven people involved in the crime, an Ecuadorian and six Colombians who acted as hitmen. The seven were moved from one prison to another, theoretically for security reasons, but a week ago they were found hanged. Although they were essential to clarify the truth and it was known that they were facing a death sentence, the Government was not able to protect their lives. The system seems to have conspired to silence their voices.
If Noboa would be the youngest president in Ecuador’s history, González would become the first elected female president. Low profile, not very charismatic, she has always remained faithful to Correa. She held several public positions during his presidency and now, that she was an assembly member, she has been chosen by him to try to return to power. She nostalgically appeals to a time—between 2007 and 20017—in which the homicide rate was five times lower than today and the boom in oil and other raw materials significantly improved the country.
The most suspicious believe that appointing González is nothing more than a strategy to facilitate the return to Ecuador of Correa, who lives in exile in Belgium due to an eight-year prison sentence for bribery in the Odebrecht caseHe assures that it is a political persecution. It is not lost on anyone that Correa did not dislike the presidential sash and that one day he would like to return to office. Just in case, she has already said that she will not pardon him, although she will make him his chief advisor.
We must not forget that Ecuador’s economy is going through critical moments. The next ruler will have to face a fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP. The options for the next president are limited, because the current Government closed a treaty with the International Monetary Fund for 6.5 billion dollars from 2020 to 2022. Since then there have been no new approaches with the IMF and for a government that will last just 16 months — what was left of the Lasso government before he decreed the closure of the Assembly and the calling of elections—it will be difficult to obtain new credits. Whoever arrives will do so with their hands tied.
Thus, Ecuador goes to the polls with a sense of urgency. In one of his last rallies, González said dramatically: “In this election we are risking our lives.” Noboa: “We are going to change the country together.” Although they propose opposite models, they agree that following this destructive path would give Ecuador the label of a failed state.
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