France’s decision to side with Morocco in the Western Sahara conflict has sparked a crisis with Algeria. Relations between Rabat and Paris have been close for decades. In a letter to King Mohammed VI, French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of July that the Moroccan autonomy plan constitutes “the only basis” for resolving the conflict. According to several experts, security and greater business opportunities in Morocco are among the main reasons for France’s about-face, which has been met with hostility by Algeria, which has been hosting refugee camps on its territory for five decades, where 173,000 Sahrawis live.
“Macron tried to reach out to Algiers, but it didn’t work out and that left a bitter taste in his mouth. France needs at least to have a good relationship with one of the two countries,” explains Khadija Mohsen-Finan, professor of international relations at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and well versed in French foreign policy in the Maghreb. Indeed, Macron made a strong commitment to improving relations with Algeria during his 2017 presidential campaign, and then with a historic visit to Algiers in 2022. “The implementation of the agreements was not easy, and Macron grew tired of Algiers’ constant demands,” adds Mohsen-Finan.
The way in which the decolonisation process took place has marked Paris’s relations with the former Maghreb colonies: in Morocco, there was a pact with the country’s elites; in Algeria, a bloody war that left wounds that still fester. Hence, the various tenants of the Elysée Palace have always felt closer to the Alawite monarchy, and over time have given veiled support to the idea of Sahrawi autonomy under Rabat’s control, until now recognising its sovereignty over Western Sahara, as Spain did in 2022 and the administration of former US President Donald Trump in 2020.
According to Irene Fernandez-Molina, a professor at the University of Exeter (United Kingdom), geostrategic and security considerations weighed particularly heavily in Macron’s calculations at a time of French weakness in North Africa. “The coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have led to the expulsion of France [del Sahel] at the military level, and have also affected their economic interests. This may have led [a Macron] to try to establish relations with traditional and more reliable partners, such as Morocco,” says the researcher specializing in the Maghreb country.
Beyond the turbulent context in the Sahel, gripped by jihadist groups, the internal dimension of security has clearly had a weight. “For France, it was very important that the Olympic Games were a success, and that there were no security incidents. And to do so, it needed the full collaboration of the Moroccan intelligence services,” says Fernández-Molina. In this context, relations between the two countries had deteriorated since 2021 due to various clashes, including the one that caused the hacking of the French president’s telephone allegedly in the hands of Moroccan intelligence, and the reduction of visas granted to Moroccan citizens by Paris. As already happened in the case of Spain, support for the Moroccan plan for the Sahara has put an end to these crises.
Economic considerations were also key to the French decision. “There are important French companies already present in Western Sahara, a region rich in natural resources that Morocco exploits. It was important that they were in tune with the country’s position,” says Mohsen-Finan.
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Days after the publication of Macron’s letter to Mohammed VI, it was revealed that the French company Egis had won a contract worth 1.4 billion euros to build a section of the Moroccan high-speed line between Kenitra and Marrakech. Morocco is a more promising market than Algeria, a country that for decades maintained a socialist-inspired system and still maintains very protectionist policies.
For France, Morocco has always been its first trading partner in the region. While the value of French exports to Morocco exceeded 6 billion euros last year, the balance in Algeria barely exceeded 4 billion. The imbalance is even greater when comparing the volume of direct investments, with France being the first in Morocco, with an inflow representing almost 25% of total foreign investments since 2015.
Algiers, which broke diplomatic relations with Morocco in 2021, supports the position of the Polisario Front, which advocates holding a self-determination referendum to achieve independence. As expected, the change in France’s official position on the Sahara has sparked an angry reaction from Algiers, which has recalled its ambassador from Paris, an unprecedented move. “This was not a call for consultations. It is a downgrading of diplomatic representation. It is a first step that will be followed by others,” said Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf at a press conference. “There is a simple expression to designate the legal value of this recognition.” [de Francia]”It is a gift from someone who does not have it, to someone who does not deserve it,” the head of Algerian diplomacy said.
“I think that France will be punished in the same way as Spain. There will be obstacles to its economic interests, but without public recognition. But, in addition, the collaboration agreements signed in 2022 in several areas, including security, will be frozen,” says an Algerian political observer. With the Algerian regime blocking Spanish exports following Pedro Sánchez’s adoption of the Moroccan theses in Western Sahara, these fell from a value of almost 1.9 billion euros in 2021 to just over 300 million in 2023. However, the Minister of Trade, Tayeb Zituni, recently announced that his country is open to “progress” in the normalisation of trade relations with Spain.
“The fit of rage will eventually pass, just as it did with Spain. The interests between Algeria and France are too important,” predicts Mohsen-Finan. In the meantime, the Polisario Front is forced to watch as a spectator the chess game between regional powers that is being played on the Saharawi board.
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